Morphettville Racecourse hosts their Adelaide Cup meeting this Monday, March 11th, with the $400,000 Group 2 supported by the Listed CS Hayes Cup and Listed Matrice Stakes.
We welcome experienced horse racing scribe Luke Krahe to the Before You Bet team as he previews the final four races on the card below!
Please take note the preview below includes options to back horses to win and lay horses to lose. If you are unfamiliar with these concepts, be sure to read our article on How to Back and Lay Bets on Betfair.
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 2m from 1200-Winning Post. True the remainder.
Best Bet: Race 8 SCHILLDORA
Back: SILENTZ (4) gets the blinkers on for the first time coming back to the mile here, he was beaten as favourite (lost the whip early in the straight) at Caulfield last start by Yogi who ran a good race on Saturday in much harder company than this. He had won three in a row prior to that.
Back: MIGHTY BOSS (1) has had two runs back from a spell, although he has a poor overall strike rate having only won 2 races in his career, he looks to have come back well. He ran on well at Flemington fresh, then got very wide their last time before attacking the line again. The runner-up from that race So Si Bon ran a cracker on Saturday in the Australian Cup, just missing a place.
Lay: LITE IN MY VEINS (2) drops a stack in grade from the Toorak last start, he is first-up straight into this at the mile however and is traditionally a better second-up horse. He has enough tactical speed to take up a spot but if he has to do any work early, he will be found wanting at the back-end fresh up since mid-October.
Back: BONDEIGER (3) looks incredibly hard to beat. He will start favourite and I expect him to be very well backed, if you can get anywhere around the $4 mark it would be good shopping. He flashed home in what has proved a good form race at Caulfield on Australia Day second-up then went to the Valley and made good ground again out wide. He was here for the lead-up 9 days ago in the Lord Reims Stakes, fully fit fourth-up he sat back worse than mid-field, improved four-wide, loomed up, before quickly putting them away inside the furlong. He is having his first go at the two miles, as are the majority of these, but the way he savaged the line last week here suggests it shouldn’t be an issue. Hopefully the jock just puts him to sleep mid-field and saves him for one run.
Back: I am happy to say that he is near on a good thing but if you want to entertain something at odds, then you could do worse than ALOFT (5), especially if horses are struggling to make up ground early in the day. He is not going great admittedly, was beaten by a star last time when he attempted to lead all the way and did seem to have every chance. The big tick with him is that he has won at the two miles before, if he can dictate and not turn it into a sit-sprint, he may be hard to run down.
Lay: EASTENDER (1) is a real winner, he has won four in a row on the Apple Isle, the latest two of those the two major Cups in Tassie at Hobart and Launceston. Drawn barrier 18, he will get back with a bigger weight than what he carried in both of those races, over a trip that he has never been to before at a track that he has never been around. Anything in single figures looks way under the odds!
Back: SCHILLDORA (14) was a real-eye-catcher here two starts back where she sat back last over 1000m before showing an amazing turn-of-foot and pounced on the leaders, bolting in by 3 lengths. She then went to the Valley, was wide without cover throughout and still had the audacity to stick on late and only be beaten under two lengths. The runner-up from that race has since come out and won at Flemington on Saturday in a tough effort, her run was easily as good last start.
Lay: CHAUFFEUR (7) gets the blinkers back on and very happy to risk him here, to miss the place as well. He won up the straight at Flemington at big odds (first start for Weir) where he was out in the best part of the track in a race where the tempo suited him. He then was at Flemington (first start for Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig) again 3 weeks ago where he was well beaten in a race that hasn’t and won’t really stand-up as a form reference. He is likely to get further forward with the blinkers on, have to sit wide and will struggle to hold off the swoopers.
Lay: Looks a tough race the last, not a lot of confidence in finding the winner but am very happy to be opposing DANGER DEAL (5). He is very consistent but really struggles to win, he has placed at 15 of 24 career starts but only two of those have been first past the post. After pulling up lame last start in both forelegs, the concussion plates go on, he has the inside draw and will most likely sit closer to the speed. If the inside is a no-go zone, bet around him heavily, even if the track is playing fair, he just doesn’t know how to win. They have tried to race him on the speed and coming from behind, either way he usually finds one better. Play around him and very wide in the Quaddie.
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