Mornington Racing Tips for Saturday, March 25th

No Group 1 racing in Melbourne but quite a decent card on offer at Mornington with the Mornington Cup a race with plenty of interest.

The winner of the Mornington Cup will earn a spot in October's Caulfield Cup and outside of that we have the Hareeba Stakes, the Sires and the Guineas to look at.

The track is currently rated a Soft 5. Friday is forecast to be clear but there is a bit of drizzle predicted on Saturday, so I think we'll be racing on a Good 4 at best and Soft 5 at worst.

MORNINGTON RACING TIPS

Race 1

Quite a tricky little race to assess first up and one I won't be overly keen to bet into. I think the $6.50 about Aunty Mo is acceptable here based on her being third up, in good form and maps to either lead of sit on the leaders heels. As always with Mornington, being up on pace is a significant advantage, so it wouldn't surprise me to see some leaders win early on in the day. The 59.5kg is a big concern, but she was hardly tested first up and then very brave last start. Peaking in fitness here, lands in a good spot and handles both good and soft. Nice price for an each way bet.

Tip: Aunty Mo

Race 2

Two at odds I'm relatively interested in here. There looks to be a stack of pace in the race and two that map to sit just off that pace are STYLISH MISS and FLORELLE who both come into this first up from spells. Stylish Miss finished 3rd first up last prep carrying 59.5kg in this grade and over this distance. She's got two wins and two placings from five starts when first up and from the good draw she will get a good run. Looks a value chance at $12. FLORELLE is also first up and has never missed a place from four starts first up. She's placed in six of her seven starts at this distance and she'll also get a great run from barrier 3. She's at $9 and I think the quick tempo may suit them both. Both look good chances at good odds and I'll be backing both on an eachway basis. SULLIVAN BAY maps to lead from barrier 1 - if she gets things her way she can go well with the drop back in trip, while EL RADA is up in grade but down in weight and was heavily backed last start. Can go close but she'll be back in the field.

Tip: Stylish Miss EW / Florelle EW

Race 3

Really keen to bet in this race with two clear standouts to me.TRY FOUR is ready to win after three reasonable runs back from a spell. Draws to get the box seat just behind the leaders and with just 56kg on his back after the claim he is well weighted. If the track is a Soft 5 his chances are even greater but I don't think this is a strong field so he's a very strong chance at the $4 mark. SNITZELWOOD is the value in the race at $8 which I think is the wrong price. He was scratched last week due to a foot abscess but from all reports he has had a good week. He comes into this third up from a spell having finished 4th in the Wangaratta Cup last start, and he's won two of his three previous runs when third up which indicates he is ready to win. He's another that might benefit from a bit of cut in the ground, but he'll either lead or sit 3rd or 4th and with 54kg he is a great chance. Backing both.

Tip: Try Four / Snitzelwood EW (best value)

Race 4

Only two I'm interested in here. ESHTRAAK looks the standout on exposed form after putting together three straight wins before being beaten 3L in the Group 2 Sires Produce Stakes last start. He's really well off at the weights under set weights conditions and if he runs up to what we've seen he should be winning this. $2.50-$2.70 is probably his right price. The one at value I think is ABERRO who ran very well on debut the impressive Merchant Navy. He travelled three-wide without cover in midfield on that occasion and still finished off well over the 1200m so the step up to 1500m should be in his favour. He's at $11 but I think he'll start shorter and could go very close. The other two to entertain are SHEER MADNESS and PERISTROPHE.

Tip: Eshtiraak / Aberro EW

Race 5

Strike Force will be hard to beat once again here given his consistent recent form but with 59kg he has to give the nearest horse 3kg which may be enough to just bring him undone. I think RISING HOPE can go well here. Simply worked a bit too hard to get her position last start and was entitled to fall away. Her form is a bit like that anyway as her recent pattern has been to win, then fail and then win again. After the claim she only carries 54kg again, which is what she carried in a Group 3 last start, and a relatively good Group 3 at that. Undefeated at the track and has two wins and a placing from four starts over 1600m. Well drawn and goes close at $8.50. I think HOKKAIDO can be in the finish after two good recent runs. Down to 55kg and up to 1600m; has a good record at the track and distance and can go close at similar odds. Look for sharp improvement from FIFE. 

Tip: Rising Hope EW

Race 6

Very competitive race here. BASSETT has won two from two since resuming from a short spell and looks to have come back a different horse. Won in Listed grade last start at the Valley but does concede weight here to a few he beat. he also draws gate 16 in a race with a bit of speed so whether he is able to get across and find a position is the query. I wouldn't be surprised if he won this but not confident enough to back him here. His stablemate SECRET AGENDA looks reasonably odds at $7.50 given what she did first up from a spell last prep. She also draws wide here but she flies fresh and will love any cut out of the ground. WELL SPRUNG won very impressively two starts ago before flashing home against the pattern last start behind Bassett. Gets a 2kg swing and draws favourably here so if the tempo is hot then it will suit him down to the ground. Nothing wrong with the way PRUSSIAN VIXEN is going after winning in Group 3 grade last start over the very talented Silent Sedition who goes around in the Group 1 William Reid Stakes on Friday night. She looks big odds but won't be suited by the pressure up front. TADDEI TONDO the absolute blowout. Secret Agenda for me but not with much confidence.

Tip: Secret Agenda

Race 7

Only three I am remotely interested in here and the favourite THE GOLD TRAIL is the clear standout here. He comes from the Charlie Appleby stable that absolutely cleaned up in the Spring with the likes of Oceanographer, Qewy and Francis of Assisi. He's won his past two starts at Doncaster and most recently Meydan when first up from a spell. Both were over 2400m and his win last start was over a horse called Prize Money who has won two races in a row. He's won five from eight starts over this distance, has a terrific second up record and you'd think he is the reason Craig Williams is riding in Melbourne and not Sydney today! Tremendously hard to beat. BOOM TIME is expected to run well at his third run back from a short let-up. He will really appreciate the drop back from WFA Group 1 company to a Listed handicap. Draws well and should also appreciate the step up to 2400m. GOLDSTREAM is the only other one and could be the value in the race at $13. Was beaten 0.4L by Boom Time last start but does get a 2kg weight swing. Think he'll like the extra distance but will need a good ride. The Gold Trail a clear top pick here and one of the best bets of the day, but if he's to be beaten I think it will be Boom Time or Goldstream that does it.

Tip: The Gold Trail (Best Bet)

Race 8

Siding with CLIFF HANGER here who should enjoy a terrific run from the inside barrier. Placed in group 2 company over 1800m last start behind the very promising Farson who is now off to Hong Kong. From the inside barrier he will sit in the box seat and he won over this distance two starts ago, whereas some others in the race have a query over the trip. The horse he beat on that occasion was Mr Churchill who has since come out and won twice, while the 3rd horse Stormsabrewing has measured up in BM80 Saturday grade. Red Is The Rose looks the main danger but slight question mark over the 1600m for her, especially with the wide gate. $4.80 more than reasonable for Cliff Hanger.

Tip: Cliff Hanger