Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, December 14th.
Racing returns to headquarters in Victoria, with a nine-race twilight card scheduled for Flemington. Our racing expert @Tim_Tips will be on track and hoping for plenty of winners, so check out his preview and betting tips below!
Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, December 14th
Best Bet: Race 2 - (3) Bam's On Fire
Best Value: Race 8 - (3) Eagle Ridge / (5) Into Rio
These races are always hard, but I've adopted a tactic of backing Hayes, Hayes & Dabernig two-year-olds throughout the Spring and it's worked well for me to date. I'm keen on backing their two runners here, especially after looking through the Flemington jumpouts. (3) Dark Horse is the first of the stable's runners, with Craig Williams booked to ride. He's had two jumpouts; he's led both of them and won both. He looked very sharp and the wide draw here isn't an issue down the straight, obviously. Expect him to probably lead this field up and take plenty of running down. $5.50 looks a more than acceptable price. (11) Wide Awake is the other runner from the camp and she's a bit more value at $10. I was actually quite impressed with her first jumpout. She sat just behind the leaders and when she was given a little squeeze before the post, she really accelerated quickly. In her second jumpout, she was given a bit of an easier time of things but it didn't put me off. Happy to have something on at the double figures. (9) Unstoppabelle debuted in Adelaide, where she was well backed and won accordingly. It was only a small field but she won with a bit in hand and there was a big gap back to the third horse. Ben Melham is an interesting jockey booking here. He's only had the three rides for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace this season, but in the last 12 months he's had 11 rides for 5 winners. No shock to see her win again. Tony McEvoy is another trainer that is a terrific trainer of two-year-olds. He's represented by (10) Zeppa, who has also jumped out twice at Flemington. The first of those jumpouts was behind Wide Awake, where she travelled wide and was never really asked to do anything. The second jump out was strange - she was held back from the main division, finishing about 20L off the rest of them. She was with another horse, so perhaps they used it as a working gallop rather than a serious hitout. (4) Jabali Ridge is on debut for Mick Price. His stable is flying at the moment. I'll keep it simple and back the two Hayes, Hayes, Dabernig horses here, only small.
Value: (11) Wide Awake $10
(3) Bam's On Fire can return to the winner's circle after going down by 0.2L first up at Ballarat, where she just got too far back after jumping a touch slowly. She ran the clear best final sectionals of the race and if she jumps with them she should prove awfully hard to hold out here. The value could be (5) Raven's Blaze at $23. She's up in class first up today, but her past two first up runs have both been dominant victories. Granted, they were both at Mornington and that's a different kettle of fish to the Flemington straight, but she still couldn't have been much more impressive. She might be able to run a cheeky race at big odds. (9) Our Campana was another to go down by a very slender margin first up. Craig Williams takes over the ride today and when he rides for Colin Little, they normally go very well. (2) Causeway Girl next best; she's got a good record down the straight but I think she's more of a first up horse than second up.
Value: (5) Raven's Blaze $23
Hard to split (3) Living The Dream and (11) Westbrook Park here, with both horses coming off wins over the mile at Moonee Valley. Living The Dream had the blinkers applied for the first time and they sparked him into another gear, it was all over on the turn as soon as he got clear running. When he did, he charged home over the top of them to win going away by 4.5L. Ben Melham has had 17 rides for Mitch Freedman this season, resulting in five wins and eight placings at a ROI of 400%. Westbrook Park also won his race impressively, recording a 2.25L victory. His form stacks up everywhere you look. Four starts back he bumped into the smart Russian Camelot, then ran into Banquo, before recording back-to-back wins. I'm going to lean slightly towards Westbrook Park but will be saving on Living The Dream. If you're looking for one at big odds to throw in, (8) Gelignite Jack could be the one at $16. He's third up now and has been finishing off well. The Flemington track should suit him.
(11) Westbrook Park
$3.50
What a deep race this is! We have seven last-start winners in the field. I'm going with the Lindsey Smith-trained (4) Rolls on top, who comes off a 3.5L win at Warrnambool. Although that seems a very moderate race form-wise, he bumped into the smart Grand Scholar the start prior at Moonee Valley, and leading into that he was a 4L winner at Hamilton. His form has some depth. He'll go forward and make his own luck. The value could be (7) Briseur De Couer, who we were on at near double figure odds when he won at Sandown last Wednesday. He's returned in good order this preparation and might be able to make the step up in grade. He'll need to improve but he can. Again, Melham rides for Mitch Freedman and they have a lethal strike rate together. (3) Tycoon Bella hasn't done anything wrong in her two starts, winning by a combined margin of 4.25L. She'll lead and take plenty of catching. (5) Somals was disappointing as favourite at The Valley last start but she's better than that. The winkers come off today. (10) St Joeys was a dominant winner first up at Warrnambool and can measure up.
Value: (7) Briseur De Couer $13
(7) Halvorsen was a surprise winner first up over this track and distance, but he was impressive doing so. He tends to go well second up and he's won three of his four starts at the distance. He goes up in grade today but gets in on the minimum weight as a result, and if he has improved since that first up win, he'll be the one to beat again. (5) Superhard ran well first up and he's won two of his four starts when second up. He'll be at the back of the field swooping home and he's got the best finish in the race, so look for him late. (3) Mystyko is knocking on the door for another win. He's finished off well in his past two starts and gets a big jockey change today with Craig Williams jumping back on for the first time this prep.
This will be a wide leg of the quaddie. (13) Talenti can keep his spot on top after two impressive wins from as many starts in Australia. Both have been at Moonee Valley, where he's come from last and looped the field. He should be much better suited on a big track at Flemington, where he can wind up in the straight. This is obviously a big step up in grade but he looks capable of handling it. He's been sold to Hong Kong so this is his final start in Australia. We backed (5) Etana last start when she was badly held up and given little chance. Prior to that she also had no luck when caught wide without cover throughout the race. She's going better than her form suggests and should be included in numbers at a big price. (6) Sure Knee was a dominant winner here two starts ago but failed as the odds-on favourite at Moonee Valley last start. Probably better suited to Flemington than the Valley and Craig Williams takes over the ride today. (12) Ryan's Fender closed off well first up at Ballarat. He has a good record second up and should be suited by the rise in distance. (1) Spunlago can also be included.
Sticking with (2) Defibrillate despite his last-start defeat. He had his chance to go past Creedence but didn't, however once Patrick Payne's horses start getting on good runs like this, they tend to keep going. He has to lug the weight again today but it's hard to go against him given the form he's in. (7) Pour Vous could be the one he has to run down. He's another that went down last start as favourite. He teased going past Garbhan for the entire straight but couldn't. Lindsey Smith seemed to think he might have been feeling the ground. Either way, he's in good form and the horse that beat him is on a winning run, so the form may be better than what i first thought. He'll be right up on speed and give plenty. (8) El Don was a great run last start, sitting wide without cover throughout the race and only finishing a length off Defibrillate. The blinkers are replaced by winkers today and there's no reason he can't go well. Will be backing Defibrillate and Pour Vous.
Another very open affair. The $11 each way about (3) Eagle Ridge will be my main bet in the race. He comes into this first up from a spell and he's yet to finish out of the top two from three starts when first up. He's also got two wins and a 2nd from three starts at the distance. He's yet to win from three starts at Flemington but the last time he raced here, he ran 3rd to subsequent Group 1 winner Begood Toya Mother. He could run a big race fresh at double figure odds. The $21 about (5) Into Rio also looks appealing. He's first up as well and has two wins and a 3rd from four starts when first up previously. He's probably looking for longer than this but with Damian Lane booked to ride, he's another that can go well at big odds. Plenty of other chances.
The favourites look hard to toss here but the $9.00 for (5) Notio immediately caught my eye. He ran well for 3rd first up at Ballarat and he typically improves with a run under his belt. He's had five starts when second up, for two wins and two placings. He's placed in two of his three starts at the track, Michael Poy takes 2kg off and he's drawn well in barrier 5. I'd be surprised if he wasn't fighting out the finish. (9) Bumper Blast just peaked on his run last time out so the drop back in distance is suitable for him. He was an impressive winner of the greys race over this track and distance two starts back. Notably, Craig Williams jumps off him to ride (10) Morrissy, who is due a win. He didn't get any luck at Moonee Valley last time out and the booking of Williams is certain to help. I'd also be including (2) Strike Force for Lindsey Smith, although he may need another run and then look for Yendall to go on. (1) Mamzelle Tess also is a blowout chance at 30/1.
