Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Eagle Farm on Saturday, June 8th.
The Brisbane Winter racing carnival continues with three Group 1s headlining the meeting. The JJ Atkins Plate is the first feature, followed by the Queensland Derby and the Stradboke Handicap.
The track is currently a Good 4 but there is rain predicted on Saturday, so it will be important to consider the possibility of soft ground.
We've got tips and comments for every race on the card below!
Best Bet: Race 5 - (5) Kolding
Best Value Bet: Race 3 - (6) Niccanova
I think the price about (1) Plague Stone is probably a touch on the short side at $2.30 but he looks the horse to beat. He's won two of his three starts this campaign, with a 2nd placing to Zoustyle wedged in between. He's on the quick back-up after winning narrowly at Doomben last weekend and for the first time this preparation, he gets to the big Eagle Farm track. This should suit him significantly better than Doomben as he'll be allowed plenty of time to wind up and get going on the spacious straight. He's yet to win over 1200m so that box is the only one that needs ticking, but his effort behind Zoustyle at this distance two starts back suggests it won't be a problem. In terms of value around him, the interesting runner looks to be Tony Pike's Kiwi charge (2) Cyber Attack, with the red-hot Blake Shinn booked to ride. He saluted first up from a nine-week break in New Zealand and comes into this as a Listed winner already. If the rain does come, it should really suit him. (10) Jami Lady ran 3rd behind Zoustyle and Plague Stone two starts ago, with a 0.75L margin separating her and the Godolphin horse. She gets a 1.5kg weight swing in her favour today and draws well. She was sound in defeat behind Meet Mr Taylor last weekend and her two career wins have been on soft ground, so she's another that will appreciate a bit of rain. (7) Ready To Prophet next best.
Not a race that I can find a real standout in. I've landed on (6) Con Te Partiro who won her Australian debut in the Dark Jewel Classic at Scone, where she beat Savatiano. Savatiano then came out and won her next start in Group 3 company with ease, thus franking the form. This former American mare was a Royal Ascot winner as a three-year-old and the stable were hopeful of gaining a start in the Stradbroke on her way to the Tatts Tiara. With that in mind, she should be hard to beat against her own sex again today. The big query is the wet ground if the rain arrives, with absolutely no indication if she'll handle it or not. Waller has three runners in the race and I wouldn't be shocked with any of them winning this. (1) Prompt Response has been running okay in Group 1 company all preparation and finally gets a drop in grade. She ran 2nd in this race last year. (2) Invincibella was the horse that beat her to win this race last year and she should be able to show something third up here. Her first two runs have only been ordinary and she's got the blinkers going on for the first time in her career. She does have a terrific record on soft ground so that should enhance her chances should the rain come. (8) Outback Barbie was only beaten 2.5L in WFA Group 1 company last start after drawing barrier 16. She is way better suited here with barrier 6, 55.5kg and back to her own sex. Gets her chance today.
On first look, there's a lot of value in this race! There's several chances and a few at good odds I'm keen to have something on. I've backed (6) Niccanova at both his starts this preparation and I'll be sticking with him today. First up he was held up the majority of the straight and last weekend he was one of just two horses all day to break 11 seconds for his final 200m (the other being Brave Song). He's placed in all three starts when third up from a spell and especially if the rain comes, he has a great chance of winning this. From six starts on wet tracks, he's won five. He gets to Eagle Farm for the first time this prep and I expect him to run a really good race at $17. The two Waller runners down the bottom also represent a bit of value. (16) Savacool comes into this second up. She was beaten 4L by (13) Star Of The Seas first up but she always tends to need that run. She's never finished out of the top two from three second up runs and she's never finished out of the top two from four runs at the distance. Kerrin McEvoy is a strong jockey booking, she's won three from five on soft ground and $17 is a good price. (17) Another Dollar has had an extra run and comes into this third up. Whether she wants a touch further than 1600m now is the query but she gets a big track to wind up on. (18) Red Colour is another to include in numbers if the rain comes. She might not be up to this grade but she grows a leg on wet ground. She's never won from 23 starts on good ground, but she has six wins and two placings from eight starts on rain-affected ground. She won easily over this distance at Doomben last start and prior to that ran well behind The Candy Man. $51 seems a big price and that won't last if the rain comes. Star Of The Seas is yet to miss a place from 11 career starts, nine of which have been top two finishes. This is a rise in grade but she's drawn well and gets her chance. She'll be around the mark as always. (2) Order Again was a last start winner in Group 3 company at this track and distance. His overall record at Eagle Farm is terrific, with four wins and two placings from seven starts. Should go close again. Happy to play small here and hope for a blowout result. Niccanova will be my best result, with Savacool, Another Dollar and Red Colour also good results.
This looks a really open race but there's five chances I'll highlight. (10) Noble Boy goes on top. He faces his toughest test to date stepping up to Listed company against some very good horses, but he's won seven of his eight career starts and comes off a dominant victory in lesser grade last start. I think he's capable of measuring up in this grade, he's drawn well in barrier 5 and any rain won't concern him. (11) Deprive is the current favourite and he's another lightly-raced horse on the up with a great record. His eight career starts have bred five wins and two placings and he resumed with an impressive victory in Sydney. This is also his toughest test but he's definitely got the ability. (1) Tactical Advantage might be the vaue at $10. He was only beaten 1.5L by The Bostonian in the G1 Kingsford Smith Cup last start and drops from WFA G1 company to a Listed handicap. He carries the top weight and draws way out in barrier 17, but he's won two of his three third up runs and should find this significantly easier than what he faced last start. (8) Cradle Mountain is a horse with a mountain of ability, but he's clearly a horse that's had problems throughout his career. He's got six wins from 11 starts and if the real Cradle Mountain turned up here, he'd give this a real shake. The problem is, his first up failure suggests he's not at his best, and it's tough to know when he is 100%. There's no jockey booked to ride him as yet so perhaps there's a doubt as to whether he will actually take his place. Watch the market if he runs. (14) In Good Time has had a horrible time of things in recent starts, with no luck whatsoever. She's a smokey that's going much better than her form suggests, so throw her in your numbers at $31. Chances don't end there. I'll be backing Noble Boy, with Tactical Advantage a good result. Something small on Cradle Moutain ($17) and In Good Time ($31).
Think there's only three real chances here. (5) Kolding gets the nod and he looks awfully hard to beat. The gelding operation has done wonders for this horse, because he's belted everything put in front of him since returning. Granted, this is a big step up in grade on what he's been beating, but I don't think it's necessarily a deep race, so he gets his chance to break through at this level. The wide draw isn't ideal but he should get his chance on the big track and James McDonald jumps back aboard. The step up to the mile also looks ideal. (1) Ringerdingding is his stablemate and he looks the main danger. He was a Group 3 winner over the mile on wet ground at Randwick just two starts back, before going out for a seven-week let-up. He returned in the G1 Kingsford Smith Cup, where he was beaten 5L by The Bostonian. Drops back in grade from WFA G1 company to a Group 2 against his own age group at set weights, so should find this much easier. The value looks to be (11) Junipal at $17. He was beaten 3.5L first up at Flemington, but it was a good run working home from the back of the field. Up to the mile and his only win was on heavy ground, so the rain that's due won't bother him. Well drawn and this stable/jockey combo are absolutely flying. Include him.
Looks an open edition of the JJ Atkins. I'm going to stick with (8) Reloaded, who I've pretty well been with since his debut. He was enormous in winning on that occasion, and although he was beaten as an odds-on favourite at Randwick last start, I think it's worth sticking with him. He was a month between runs going into that race, but he should be cherry ripe for this and the step up to 1600m looks as if it will suit him. It's also noteworthy that James McDonald jumps back on him for his grand final today. (7) Prince Fawaz was the horse who beat Reloaded last start and his form has quite a bit of depth to it. He was beaten 4L in the G1 Champagne Stakes behind Castelvecchio, but was stepping up from 1200m to 1600m at just his second race start for that race. He then went down as an odds-on favourite at Newcastle, but he was simply given way too much to do, and one of the horses that finished ahead of him in that race was (5) Shadow Hero, who then came out and won the 2YO Listed race at Doomben last weekend. Prince Fawaz then beat Reloaded fair and square, so from the good draw with Kerrin McEvoy on board, he must be rated very highly. Shadow Hero must also come into consideration given he finished ahead of Prince Fawaz and then won his next start. Trainer Mark Newnham won three two-year-old races last weekend so certainly knows how to prepare the juveniles. (1) Accession will be ridden by Blake Shinn, who jumps off Shadow Hero to take the ride. He replaces James McDonald, who jumps on Reloaded. Accession has finished in the top two in six of his seven career starts, and comes into this third up from a spell, with 0.1L and 0.3L defeats in his two starts this prep. He should be spot on for this. (6) Kubrick is another Waller charge, with the interesting jockey booking of John Allen. He's undefeated from two starts to date and I'd say his chances become even stronger if the rain comes. (2) Strasbourg was a last-start winner of the Sires' Produce, where he defeated Accession, but I think Accession probably has his measure and he's been up a long time now.
This is an absolute headache of a Queensland Derby. I'll stick with (2) Mr Quickie, who I've obviously had a great love for since day one. His run in the South Australian Derby last start was enormous. He had nothing go right early in the race, got shuffled all the way back, came the widest on the turn and powered home into 3rd. This horse has a bit of X-factor and knows how to win. We know he gets the distance without any worries, he'll handle any rain that comes, the only slight query is the fact he's a month between runs coming into this. But he's drawn well, can settle closer than he did in the SA Derby, and he'll get his chance to wind up at Eagle Farm. (4) Declares War might just be coming right at the right time. He showed a huge amount of talent under Darren Weir but then went off the boil for new trainer Matt Cumani. He seems to be back in form though, with a strong win with 60kg at Flemington last start. Craig Williams goes on board for this and he's drawn well in barrier 1. (5) Savvy Oak ran 2nd in the SA Derby, so must be considered an outside hope with the good draw. If you backed (12) Lord Arthur in the Grand Prix two weeks ago, you probably should stick with him here. He didn't get the race run to suit, but the important thing to note is he started a $3.10 favourite for that race and lines up at $21 here. (15) Aliferous is on the quick back-up after having a torrid time of things in last week's QLD Oaks. Her run was very good, all things considered, and she's not without a chance in this. (17) Re Edit is another runner that comes off a huge run. She was beaten 2L by multiple Group 1 winner Kenedna in the PJ O'Shea Stakes, despite being trapped wide throughout. On that performance, she has to be a chance in this, but whether that gut-buster gets the best of her is the query as she's on the quick back-up.
While (1) The Bostonian is clearly the form horse of the race and the one to beat, I'll be looking a bit wider here. He's had two starts this prep for two WFA Group 1 victories, but this is a handicap and he has to shoulder top weight today, giving several horses a handy weight swing. It wouldn't shock me if he was still to win, but it's been 10 years since a favourite won this race. Godolphin have a strong hand in the race. (2) Home Of The Brave had an issue leading into his first up run in Sydney, where he was a notable drifter and failed to justify favouritism. He's been sent back to the trials since then and has trialled well, and James McDonald sticks with him which is a positive sign. Second up last prep, he led all the way to beat D'Argento and Trapeze Artist on heavy ground. If he were to reproduce that sort of performance, he'd be very competitive here. (5) Trekking started favourite in the Kingsford Smith Cup last start, and was beaten less than a length by The Bostonian. He gets a 3kg weight swing on The Bostonian today so he really gets his chance to break through at this level. The rain is a bit of a query for him though, he's only placed once from four starts on wet ground. I think the real value in the race is (12) Deploy at $31. He was beaten about a length first up by Trekking at Scone, when carrying 59kg fresh off a 16-week spell. He's since been back to the trials and won cosily. He's finished in the top two at four of his five starts when second up and he'll carry just 53.5kg here. Let's not forget this horse ran in The Everest in 2017. He's undefeated at Group 2 level and he's up to a Group 1 handicap like this. Wet ground is no problem and he should be in good shape for this, so $31 is a huge price. If (19) Tactical Advantage gains a run, he'll be a chance at $34. He gets a big weight drop from the Doomben 10,000, when only beaten 1.5L by The Bostonian. Good third up record, well drawn and goes close. Likely to have small bets on Home Of The Brave ($14), Trekking ($6.00), Deploy ($31) and Tactical Advantage ($34).
Good race to finish off with. (7) The Candy Man just keeps turning up and keeps winning, so I'll put him on top for this. He's now got seven wins from his past seven starts, including the G3 Premier's Cup over 2200m last start. He drew barrier 1 on that occasion and will find things a bit tougher from barrier 15 today, but you can't knock his winning form. The rain will pose no problem for him. (5) Haripour ran 2nd to The Candy Man last start, beaten narrowly, and gets a 1.5kg weight swing in his favour for this race. They basically switch their barriers, with Haripour starting from barrier 4 today after starting from 17 last start. Has to be rated highly. (3) Sixties Groove has bumped into Kenedna in his past two starts and he won't find her here. I was very keen on him last weekend but he just found her too good. Barrier 17 is an obstacle for him today and I'll be jumping off - hopefully he that doesn't come back to bite me. The smokey could be his stablemate (1) Big Duke at $19. If the rain comes, he's a big chance in this. He's raced twice since the Sydney Cup, which have both basically been barrier trials. He's placed in nine of his 10 starts on wet ground and he should be ready to do something today, but barrier 20 hurts. Don't dismiss his chances though. (6) Exoteric is a quite ridiculous price at $81. He's had three runs back from a spell now and was beaten 3L by The Candy Man last start. If the track is soft, he's a chance. He's had six top-two finishes from seven starts on soft ground, JMac takes the ride, he draws well, has a good record at the distance and should be peaking fourth run back from a spell. Happy to back The Candy Man ($5.50), with a saver on Haripour ($5.50) and small bets on Big Duke ($19) and Exoteric ($81).
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