Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, April 27th.
It's VOBIS raceday, with the VOBIS Gold Distaff, 3YO Sires, Dash, The Showdown, Heath and the Mile all on the program. The track is rated a Soft 5 with the rail out 5m.
We've got tips and comments for every race on the card below.
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 Mandela Effect
Best Value Bet: Race 4 Shandy
RACE 1
Tricky start. I think William Thomas is the best horse in the race, but this is a big ask. He's first up from a 47-week break, carries 59kg and draws barrier 14. He's won three of six overall, including first up last preparation, but he had everything in his favour that day and today he's got everything against him. Propelle has been well-backed into clear-cut favouritism. She's had two starts back from a spell and is close to a win; She's drawn a bit wide too but Craig Williams is a notable jockey booking. I think both are too short for me to get involved. If I were to be betting, I'd be interested in Miss Street each way at $9.00. She's put four wins in a row together now and should bounce straight to the lead from barrier 4. If she gets things easy enough up front, she'll take plenty of running down with the rail out 5m.
RACE 2
Mandela Effect looks the clear top pick here, having won all three starts this preparation, including an impressive effort at Bendigo last start. He rises in grade again but carries a similar weight and has won his only start at this track and distance. Should prove tough to beat again. Call It A Day led all the way over track and distance last start and will look to do so again today from the good gate. Like Mandela Effect, he rises in grade slightly but also carries a similar weight to the one he won with last time out. There looks to be a fair bit of pressure in the race though, with the likes of Ocean Deep, Holy Command and He Ecksels involved. That should set up a good tempo for Mandela Effect coming from off the speed.
RACE 3
I've got this between Twitchy Frank and River Jewel, who finished alongside each other behind Miss Siska at Bendigo last start. On that, Twitchy Frank should be the one better suited in this given she gets a 2kg weight swing on River Jewel, and she's also got a better record at 1400m and at this track. She should bounce straight to the front and be hard to run down, even with top weight. River Jewel has had three wins and two placings from her last five starts. She'll get the sit on Twitchy Frank and will be in the finish. Think I'm Dreaming steps up in grade but she's been dominant in her past two victories when they've ridden her with cover. Truly Discreet won over track and distance last start but rises 8kg in the weights today.
RACE 4
Only two horses I'm interested in here and I'll be backing both. Tarwin looks the most likely winner. He was terribly unlucky first up when beaten a nose over 1300m at Sandown, but atoned for that defeat with an impressive victory over 1440m here last start. He motored home down the outside to win by 1.5L and the step up to the mile should only suit him even better here. He'll need a touch of luck from barrier 2 but looks the one they all have to beat. Shandy is the danger and the value runner in the race for mine. She won at Geelong two starts ago and ran 2nd to Big Night Out last start. Big Night Out came out and ran 2nd on Thursday to Zoutori at Flemington, so the form is pretty strong. Drawn to get a great run from barrier 4 and I think she'll be somewhere in the finish at $11.
RACE 5
Good betting race. Halvorsen might have been a touch disappointing last start but I'll give him the nod to bounce back today. His form from last prep would see him very tough to beat here, with a victory over Hawkshot and a 2nd placing to Tin Hat. He started $3.50 first up and was beaten 1.8L by Columbus Circle; maybe he needed the run and will be suited by the step up to 1100m second up. Columbus Circle has shown plenty of promise and finally delivered his second win last start. He got the run of the race from the inside barrier last start and things will be a bit different from barrier 8 today but he's a chance once again. Thine Is The Power poses the biggest threat. She's yet to break through this prep but has been knocking on the door with each start. Her form behind Graceful Storm and Thrillster last start certainly looks good enough for this race and she's drawn well in barrier 3. Fine Dane is drawn well and can feature, while More Bricks makes his stable debut for Paul Preusker (formerly with Weir) and returns as a gelding.
RACE 6
Happy to stick with Prince Of Sussex here, who bolted in at Bendigo last start. He started a $2.10 favourite on debut when he disappointed, however he well and truly atoned for that last start. He won by 2.25L pulling away from them, despite being under a hold for the final 50m. He should be able to sit off the pace from barrier 9 and motor over the top of them in the straight. Satorial Splendour impressed on debut at Terang, sitting wide and leading all the way for a comfortable victory. He draws 1 here so should kick up on the rail to lead. With the rail out 5m he'll be tough to catch. Stand To Attention could be the value. He had no luck in his first two runs this prep and then bumped into the very smart Super Seth last start (don't worry about Super Seth failing on Thursday). A repeat of his run from last start would see him really competitive in this race.
Value: Stand To Attention $8.50
RACE 7
Of course the one time I tipped Mr Quickie, he lost for the first time in seven starts. He had to carry 60kg whereas every other horse in the race carried about 54kg, and he then had to make a fairly long run, eventually being run down late. The shoe is on the other foot today, with him carrying the bottom weight under set weights conditions. He steps up to 2000m, a distance he is 1/1 at and draws the inside barrier. He'll need luck from the gate but if he gets it, he'll be winning. Mahamedeis is his only danger and comes off a good win at the mile here last start. He was luckless prior to that too, so the horse looks to be flying. If Mr Quickie has any trouble in the straight, Mahamedeis will probably win.
RACE 8
Widgee Turf is the best horse in the race but barrier 1 is a little bit tricky for him here. He maps to sit close enough to last on the rail and from there, he's going to need plenty of luck. He won two starts ago at Flemington where the race panned out absolutely perfectly for him, and then he was beaten 5L in the Doncaster. Big drop back in grade today and he's so far got a good record at the track and distance, but odds on is a bit short given the race shape. Waging War draws barrier 2 and gets Craig Williams on board today. He's been luckless in two starts so far this prep. He was huge first up in Adelaide and then was caught wide the entire race last start. He's won two from four when third up and he's a winner at this track and distance previously. Think Bleue is undefeated at this track and distance, including a last-start victory, and she should continue to improve with more racing. She's drawn wide and should get clear running, while the other two are likely going to need a bit of luck. If I was betting, I'd back Waging War, but I'd also be happy to sit out.
RACE 9
Miss Leonidas has the task ahead of her from barrier 11, but if they elect to lead with her like they did last start, then she'll be tough to run down with the rail out 5m. She's returned in great form, with a narrow defeat at Mornington first up followed with an all-the-way victory here last time out. She can win again but needs things to go right. Iconoclasm returns from a spell and makes his stable debut for Danny O'Brien (formerly with Weir). He's yet to win first up and has only placed once from four starts at this distance so I'm slightly surprised he's $3.40 here. With that said, he does look a classy animal and could return a much better horse this prep. Ashlor gets blinkers back on, Miss Vixen is in good form and Moonlight Ruby could be the blowout.
