The $3 million Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup headlines Australian horse racing this weekend, with 17 runners set to line up over the 2400m at Caulfield.
It’s set to be an outstanding edition of the race, with 10 Group 1 winners among the field and a strong international contingent having made the trip.
Listen to @Tim_Tips Racing Preview with the Before You Bet Podcast!
In Episode 5 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Randwick and Caulfield and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Saturday, October 21st! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
TRACK CONDITIONS
There’s up to 15mm of rain predicted in Melbourne on Thursday and there is a slight chance of showers in the late afternoon on Saturday, but I would still expect the track to be a Good 4 for race day. Caulfield has great drainage and with a day to dry out before Saturday I think the track will be spot on. The rail moves to the 6m position after being in the True position on Wednesday and I think horses will get their chance to swoop if the tempo permits.
TEMPO & SPEED MAP
This race could be run at a very genuine tempo. We can expect the Williams stable to send Sir Isaac Newton forward from the widest gate with Katelyn Mallyon on board. They sent him forward last start against Winx and they’ll send him forward to run the race at a good pace to set things up for Johannes Vermeer. Jon Snow will kick up on the inside from barrier 6, Single Gaze will slide across from barrier 12 and Jon Snow will box seat from barrier 3. He’s Our Rokkii is another that could go forward from out wide. The relative unknown is Marmelo, who led all the way to win last time out over 3000m, but settled towards the rear the start before that. He’s led, settled prominent and been ridden quiet, so there’s really no knowing what they’ll do from gate 10. Harlem, Johannes Vermeer and Ventura Storm could kick up from inside barriers to sit midfield, while Hardham and Humidor should get nice runs just off midfield. Amelie’s Star and Lord Fandango won’t want to settle too far back but they’ll need luck to not be caught wide. Abbey Marie typically settles a long way back; I suspect they’ll go back with Wicklow Brave, and Inference will also settle towards the rear from barrier 11. Bonneval draws poorly and the stable have said they’ll have to go back. This is how I see the speed map unfolding.
THE RUNNERS
Humidor: I declared him the Caulfield Cup winner after his huge win in the Makybe Diva Stakes over 1600m at Flemington, but I’ve now got others ahead of him. I thought he was slightly underwhelming last start behind Winx, though the make-up of that race was never going to suit him. He isn’t a sit and sprint horse, he needs a good tempo, which is exactly what he got when zooming home from last in the Makybe Diva. He looks set to get a genuine tempo here, and from the good draw he will get a great run in midfield. My main query is whether he is better at Flemington than Caulfield. I think so. Carries top weight now but it’s a relatively compressed weight scale so he’s not badly treated. He can win, and $9 is a decent price now, but he’ll need to do everything right.
Marmelo: First up from a break with the travel and quarantine of course, but that’s no issue given he ran 2nd in Group 2 company over 2800m in France two starts ago off a similar break. Followed that up with a win over 3000m in Group 2 company when he led throughout. As mentioned above, he can lead, he can take a sit and he can be ridden cold, so it’s a bit of a guessing game as to what the tactics will be. I’d suggest they will go forward but only if he jumps well. They won’t rush to get him forward. Has won over 2400m, has never missed a place on good ground, looks a very strong chance and must be included at $19.
Johannes Vermeer: I think he’s well and truly short enough at $4.20 but I also think he profiles very well. Last preparation in Europe he finished behind Minding, Decorated Knight and Highland Reel. That’s some serious star power. Dropped down to Group 3 company and won over 2000m, before running 2nd in Group 3 company over 2400m. First up he flew home behind Gailo Chop in a leader dominated Caulfield Stakes. He comes into this on the one-week back-up, which is some concern despite him winning as a two-year-old on the quick back-up. He’s also never won at the distance (did place at his only try). He’ll need luck from the barrier but with all that said, he does bring some extremely strong European form and his first up run put the writing on the wall.
Jon Snow: Winner of the Group 2 JRA Cup two starts ago before finishing 3rd behind Gailo Chop and Johannes Vermeer in the Caulfield Stakes last start. Won the Group 1 Australian Derby over this distance back in April and should get a lovely run on speed from barrier 6. He’s also on the quick back-up and if the rain were to come early on Saturday it would significantly enhance his chances. Johannes Vermeer went straight past him late in the Caulfield Stakes so I’d suggest he’s got a bit to make up on him, but he’ll be in this for a long way, especially if there is cut out of the ground.
He’s Our Rokkii: Not going anywhere near well enough to win. The stable said he was unsuited when leading two starts ago in a hotly run race and that puts doubts in my mind that they’ll push forward from his wide barrier. But I also think he’s not good enough to win coming from well off the pace, so they may try and slot in somewhere in midfield. Either way, he should be outclassed in this.
Sir Isaac Newton: Another that’s not going well enough to win. As I wrote above, they sent him forward last start when taking on Winx, and I think they’ll send him forward again to act as a pacemaker for Johannes Vermeer. Katelyn Mallyon was replaced by Ben Melham on Johannes Vermeer but picks up the consolation ride here. She’s a good frontrunning rider so I suspect there’s some thought put into her riding this horse, rather than just giving her the ride to make up for getting dumped off the favourite. Either way, Damien Oliver off, Katelyn Mallyon on tells you all you need to know. Important for the speed in the race.
Ventura Storm: The more I looked at this horse’s form in depth, the more I liked its chances here. His first two runs this preparation were good. He worked home well first up and then was working home well once again before being held up for the final 250m behind Humidor in the Makybe Diva Stakes. Last start he bumped into Winx and certainly performed better than Humidor, and now steps up to 2400m which is the distance he won his Italian Group 1 at. The horse he beat in that race then went on to win three of its next four races. The form out of his UK races prior to that also stacked up, with the horse he beat in Group 3 company over 2500m then winning in Group 3 company at its next start. Three of his six career wins have been between 2250m-2500m so this is his pet distance. Draws well in barrier 4, drops to 54kg with Oliver booked for the ride, comes out of the Turnbull Stakes which is the race that five of the last eight winners of the Caulfield Cup have come out of. Appears a very good each way chance at $12.
Wicklow Brave: Forget he even went around in last year’s Melbourne Cup because he was given no hope caught wide the trip. Since then, he’s competed in seven races and run top four in six of those, including a Group 1 win in a 3200m hurdle race. Though his recent performances don’t jump off the page, the horses he’s come up against are no hacks. Order Of St George, Rekindling and Red Cardinal are just some of those that have beaten him. He’s from one of the leading stables in the UK – the same stable that had Max Dynamite run 2nd in the 2015 Melbourne Cup. Draws poorly here but gets the Magic Man Joao Moreira booked to ride. The ride he produced on Heartbreak City from barrier 23 in last year’s Melbourne Cup was sublime, so that’s a big tick here in my opinion. Finally, he carries 54kg. Since last year’s Melbourne Cup this horse has carried 74.5kg, 75.5kg, 56kg, 62kg, 60.5kg, 61kg and 61.5kg, so he won’t know himself with the light weight. The 2400m is his biggest problem given he’s never won below 2800m, but I love the fact they’ve brought him out here for a run leading into the Melbourne Cup. Don’t discount him at $51 here, he’ll be suited if it becomes a genuine staying test.
Inference: Going better than his finishing positions suggest. He wound up strongly two starts ago behind Bonneval before being held up very late, and once again got checked close to home last start in the Caulfield Stakes. This horse is crying out for 2400m and he’s another that would be significantly better off if the rain were to fall. Will have to come from a long way back from barrier 11 but gets in light and gets the blinkers on for the first time here. Comes down 4.5kg from last start but so does Johannes Vermeer so he has a big task to turn the tables. Has targeted this race all along and the Hawkes stable always have them peaking for their grand finals so expect him to run very well but might find a few too good.
Single Gaze: Running consistently well but has to improve fairly significantly to turn the tables on some of the leading chances here. Ran 4th behind Bonneval two starts ago and 4th behind Gailo Chop and Johannes Vermeer last start. Johannes Vermeer actually gets in better at the weights here and Single Gaze will need a good ride from Kathy O’Hara to slot in from barrier 12. Not quite good enough but will run an honest race.
Bonneval: Big question marks over her and she will probably continue to drift in the market. She pulled up lame last start when 6th in the Caulfield Stakes, and she was found to be lame again this week after trackwork and has to get a vet clearance to race. That must be a huge query leading into the race given she’s 1 out of 5 lame just three days out from the race. Draws barrier 14 and the stable have said she’s going to get back further than they would have liked, and it could be hard for her to make ground from there. She is undefeated at the distance however, and we know what she’s capable of so I’m not completely writing her off but can’t have her on top.
Hardham: Good winner two starts back in Open company over 1700m at Flemington, and solid again last start over 2000m. Up to a distance he’s placed at, down in weight and drawn to get a good run in midfield. Won in Group 2 company over 2040m last prep before running 3rd to Jon Snow in the Australian Derby, so the trip should be no issue. Going well but needs to improve on what we saw last start if he’s going to run a place here.
Boom Time: Could run a race here. Ran well behind Jon Snow two starts ago and again last start when 4th behind Lord Fandango. Gets a little weight swing on that horse but needs to improve if he’s to turn the tables. With the run over 2400m under his belt he will be right at peak fitness for this, and he should enjoy a great run in the box seat from barrier 3. Has won two from three at the track and was a dominant winner over this track and distance last prep. Should run an honest race but looks outclassed.
Abbey Marie: Continues to do what Mick Kent runners do – get a long way back and catch the eye running on well late. First up she finished right alongside Bonneval but that race was set up for the backmarkers. She’s since been just fair in two subsequent starts. Can possibly forgive her for her run two starts ago when caught wide, and she had no hope in a leader dominated race last start. Having said that, Johannes Vermeer ran home brilliantly from off the pace so she has to improve significantly to feature in this. Expect her to be a long way back in the run.
Harlem: Dominant winner of the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes two starts ago over 2000m which really stamped his credentials for this race, but was a touch disappointing last start over 2500m. I’ve gone back to 1983 and there’s not a single winner of the Caulfield Cup that has had their lead up race in the Bart Cummings. However, he does have a great record at this distance and his impressive win at this track two starts ago means he can’t be completely discounted. 51.5kg, blinkers on first time and barrier 1 means he should have no excuses here.
Amelie’s Star: Relished the step up to 2500m last start when putting in a convincing performance in the Group 3 Bart Cummings. Again, same problem as Harlem in that no winner of the Caulfield Cup has come out of the Bart Cummings as far back as I can go. Her other major problem is the barrier draw. Two starts ago she drew barrier 13 and had to settle a long way back. She ran home well but was still beaten 4.5L, but last start from barrier 2 she was able to sit 4th. I doubt they’ll want to be caught wide here so I suspect they’ll go back, which will make it hard for her to win. However, she is undefeated at this distance and carries just 51kg, so she’s not hopeless by any means.
Lord Fandango: Improved out of sight this preparation for Archie Alexander, who has his stable flying. Won the Benalla Cup two starts ago and improved lengths when winning the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes last time out. Since 1983 there's been three winners of the Caulfield Cup that have come through the Herbert Power Stakes, the most recent one being Master O'Reilly in 2007. His European form isn’t nearly as strong as some of the others in this race, but again, he’s improved significantly this preparation. Barrier 9 is an awkward one for apprentice Ben Allen. I think he’ll run very well at his $23 quote but not quite the winner.
SUMMARY
I have to take on Humidor and Bonneval today. Humidor will be peaking for today but I would have liked to have seen more from him last start and I’d prefer him at Flemington, while Bonneval has an injury cloud looming over her. Given she pulled up lame last start and again during the week, I can’t be 100% sure that she’ll be at her peak. I think the internationals will come to the fore here, whether former or current. I’ve landed on the favourite Johannes Vermeer, but the price is about as low as I’d want to go now. His Australian debut put the writing on the wall and he brings some outstanding overseas form here. Trained by Aiden O’Brien and if he handles the quick back-up he’ll be very tough to beat. I think the best value chance in the race is Ventura Storm who comes out of the dominant lead-up race in recent years, the Turnbull Stakes. His performance behind Winx was terrific and he gets up to a distance where he rates a legitimate winning chance. Marmelo is possibly looking for a longer trip and is certainly here for the Melbourne Cup, but his fresh form is very good and he’s won at this distance before. He could go forward and if he gets the chance to have a soft run on speed he will be in this for a long way. Wicklow Brave isn’t hopeless, while Amelie’s Star and Lord Fandango lightweight chances. Harlem gets his chance.
SELECTIONS
1st JOHANNES VERMEER
2nd VENTURA STORM
3rd HUMIDOR
4th MARMELO
_ _ _
The team at TopBetta have announced of their brand new GOAT Tote product, offering punters guaranteed better odds than provided on the regular totes. Don't be satisfied with poor odds! Check out the GOAT Tote which will give you the biggest bang for your buck when punting on the races this weekend!
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
