The NFL season has reached the one-third mark, and by now, patterns are starting to form. We know who the genuine contenders are, who is treading water, and who is desperately trying to keep their season alive.
Week 6 delivers a slate packed with cross-conference intrigue and early playoff implications, featuring matchups that will test both resilience and road toughness. From Jacksonville’s emerging swagger to Detroit’s statement opportunity against the Chiefs, this Sunday is all about separation, and survival.
NFL Week 6 Monday Betting Tips
Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars
4.00am (AEDT)
Jacksonville enters Week 6 in fine form with a 4–1 record and an impressive win over Kansas City fresh in their rearview mirror. The offense looks balanced and confident under coach Liam Coen, while the defense has been opportunistic, even amid roster changes. The recent trade of Tyson Campbell for Greg Newsome II suggests the Jaguars are doubling down on shoring up their secondary. With Trevor Lawrence playing efficient, controlled football and Travis Etienne providing spark, Jacksonville is looking every bit like an AFC power at home.
Seattle continues to grind through the season with competitive flashes but lingering inconsistency. Sam Darnold has done a commendable job keeping them in games, but the offense still lacks rhythm, and defensive lapses in the secondary have proven costly. Mike Macdonald’s side remains tough up front and disciplined, yet they have struggled to generate turnovers and short fields, leaving Darnold to play catch-up too often.
Jacksonville has the better balance and momentum, but Seattle tends to hang around in games they shouldn’t. The Jags are at home though and the line has opened a few points lower than I expected it to at just 1.5. Back the home side to cover that spread.
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7.25am (AEDT)
San Francisco arrives in Tampa banged up and searching for rhythm. With Brock Purdy sidelined by turf toe and backup Mac Jones limited in practice, the 49ers’ offense is in patchwork mode. They have leaned heavily on their defense to hold the line while the offense finds ways to move the ball through screens and short passing. Injuries across the receiving corps haven’t helped, and the running game has struggled to provide its usual punch, forcing the Niners to play a more conservative brand of football. Despite all of this, they are 4-1 coming into the Week 5 clash.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has maintained steadiness despite their own injury setbacks. Baker Mayfield has played efficient football and developed strong chemistry with Chris Godwin, while the defense has excelled at forcing turnovers in key moments. Without Bucky Irving, the ground game lacks explosiveness, but Rachaad White has done enough to keep defenses honest. Todd Bowles’ team thrives in ugly, low-scoring affairs, exactly the kind of game this could become.
The 49ers are too banged up and too one-dimensional right now to trust on the road. Tampa Bay may not run away with it, but their discipline and home-field comfort make them the pick to cover the spread.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
11.20am (AEDT)
Detroit is humming with confidence and has the look of a complete football team. Jared Goff continues to play mistake-free football behind a sturdy offensive line, and the combination of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs keeps defenses guessing. The Lions’ defensive front has been a revelation, consistently pressuring quarterbacks and forcing turnovers. With their depth showing and chemistry growing, Detroit looks every bit the contender many expected.
Kansas City, on the other hand, finds itself in a rare spot, on the defensive about its own identity. A 2–3 start has exposed issues with discipline and red-zone execution, and Travis Kelce’s public frustration after last week’s loss says plenty about the mood inside the locker room. Patrick Mahomes remains capable of brilliance, but the surrounding cast has been inconsistent. Add in the struggles of kicker Harrison Butker, and every point suddenly feels hard-earned.
The Chiefs at home are never an easy out, but Detroit’s balance and composure make them a tough matchup. Expect a high-intensity game with back-and-forth momentum. The last time Kansas City were tested with a big prime time matchup, they put up 37 against the Ravens and they scored another 28 last week. I think this goes over as well.
Other Tips
Denver Broncos at New York Jets - Broncos -7 ($1.91 at Dabble)
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers - Under 38.5 ($1.90 at Dabble)
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins - Over 43.5 ($1.88 at Dabble)
New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints - Patriots -3.5 ($1.87 at Dabble)
Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts - Under 46.5 ($1.90 at Dabble)
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens - Rams -7.5 ($1.90 at Dabble)
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers - Cowboys -3 ($1.89 at Dabble)
Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders - Titans +4.5 ($1.90 at Dabble)
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers - Under 44.5 ($1.88 at Dabble)
