The 2025-26 NBA season began on Wednesday with a double-header but that was just the entree for Thursday’s slate where we have a whopping 12 games on the schedule. We nailed both of our player props on Wednesday but fell short with our game predictions, although with far more options to consider on Thursday there’s certainly some value to be had!
NBA Betting Tips: Thursday, October 23rd 2025
New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzles (11:00am AEDT)
The 2025-26 NBA season continues with a compelling Southwest Division showdown as the New Orleans Pelicans visit the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. This opening-night tilt finds both teams not quite at full strength, but the injury disparity heavily favors the visitors.
The Grizzlies enter as slight favorites, largely buoyed by the return of their star duo, Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., who were sidelined for much of the preseason. However, Memphis's depth is severely compromised: they are missing key contributors like big men Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke, along with rotation guards Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. Crucially, the absence of multiple interior defenders leaves their paint defence vulnerable.
This sets the perfect stage for the Pelicans' rejuvenated star, Zion Williamson. Having dedicated his offseason to conditioning, Williamson reportedly enters the year in prime shape and ready to shoulder the load for a re-tooled New Orleans roster. With Memphis's interior defense significantly diminished, Zion is expected to attack the rim relentlessly all night. Given his career scoring pedigree (24.7 PPG), we confidently predict a high-octane performance and like Williamson to go Over his 25.5 points line.
While the home crowd will provide energy for the Grizzlies, their lack of depth and interior defense hands New Orleans a major advantage. Look for the Pelicans' supporting cast, featuring new additions, to capitalize on open looks created by Zion’s dominance. We anticipate a tight, hard-fought battle, making the Pelicans to cover the +4.5 spread a strong value pick.
Prop Bet: Z. Williamson Over 25.5 Points $1.96 (1 Unit) Palmerbet
Pelicans +4.5
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns (1:00pm AEDT)
The Phoenix Suns, kicking off a new era with a revamped, defence-minded roster and fresh coaching staff, host the Sacramento Kings in a Pacific Division clash for their 2025–26 season opener.
The Suns enter this year with a completely new identity after the massive trade that sent Kevin Durant to Houston and brought in Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green. Though Green is sidelined with a hamstring strain to start the season, Phoenix's new depth, defensive emphasis under first-year head coach Jordan Ott, and the expected step up from a motivated Devin Booker (who will likely be operating as the primary initiator) make them a compelling prospect, especially at home. They will lean on veteran Grayson Allen to start at shooting guard in place of Green and a new centre rotation led by Mark Williams.
The Kings, meanwhile, are immediately hobbled by significant injuries, with both star big man Domantas Sabonis (hamstring strain) and key forward Keegan Murray (thumb ligament tear) ruled out. This leaves a massive void in their offence and defence. Sacramento will rely heavily on the shot creation of Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, with veterans Dennis Schröder and Russell Westbrook also needing to contribute heavily to keep pace. The centre position will likely be a combination of Dario Šarić and Drew Eubanks.
The Kings' injuries, particularly the absence of Sabonis's playmaking and rebounding against an already strong centre in Mark Williams, is a crushing blow for an opening night road game. While LaVine and DeRozan can put up points, the cohesive, balanced attack that made Sacramento dangerous is compromised. The Suns, playing at home with a fresh start mentality, should be able to execute their new system and cover this relatively small spread against a shorthanded opponent.
In terms of a player prop for this contest, Dillon Brooks steps into a starting forward role in Phoenix and is poised for increased offensive responsibility. Last season he averaged 14.0 points and is expected to see more shots in the new-look offence, especially with Jalen Green out. Brooks has proven he can be a willing, high-volume scorer, and with Sacramento's weakened frontcourt defence and a likely absence of his usual lockdown assignment in Durant's place, the opportunities will be there for him to exceed his line. Look for him to capitalise with a hot shooting night to start his tenure in the Valley.
Prop Bet: D. Brooks Over 14.5 Points $1.82 (1.5 Units) Ladbrokes
Suns –3.5
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers (1:00pm AEDT)
The Minnesota Timberwolves travel to the Pacific Northwest to face the Portland Trail Blazers in a Western Conference clash for their 2025–26 season opener.
The Timberwolves enter the new campaign with lofty expectations, driven by the continued ascent of superstar Anthony Edwards. However, they will have to navigate a potentially tricky opener with Edwards currently listed as questionable due to back spasms, though he is generally durable and expected to play. Minnesota's core remains elite, featuring the formidable defensive presence of Rudy Gobert and the offensive versatility of Julius Randle. Their success will hinge on the consistency of their star power, especially against a revamped, defensive-minded Portland side.
The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, are committed to their youth movement and defensive identity. They will start a new-look line-up featuring veteran defensive anchor Jrue Holiday alongside promising young talent like Shaedon Sharpe and Deni Avdija. Crucially, the Blazers' defence is anchored by the elite wing stopper Toumani Camara, who earned All-Defensive honours last season and has historically given Anthony Edwards major headaches. team that surprisingly finished last season as a top-five defensive unit after the All-Star break.
Despite the Blazers' improved defence and their ability to slow down Anthony Edwards, Minnesota's overall talent and depth should be too much to overcome at home. The sheer size of the Wolves, with Gobert and Randle, will be difficult for Portland's young bigs to handle consistently over four quarters. While the Moda Centre will be energetic for opening night, the Timberwolves' experience and star power should allow them to create enough separation to cover this short road spread, likely winning by a margin similar to their average win margin over Portland last season.
Talking player props for this clash, Jaden McDaniels averaged 12.2 points last season, and his offensive role is expected to slightly expand this year as a supplementary scorer and playmaker, especially with Anthony Edwards potentially hindered by his back issue or guarded by the elite Toumani Camara. If Camara focuses his attention on Edwards, McDaniels will be left with more favourable match-ups and opportunities to score off drives and corner three-pointers. He’s expected to see more touches and be aggressive early to help establish the Wolves' offence, making the 'over' a strong play to start his campaign.
Prop Bet: J. McDaniels Over 12.5 Points $1.84 (1 Unit) Neds
Timberwolves –3.5
$1.85 (1 Unit)
