The Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars square off on Monday Night Football in Week 5, with Patrick Mahomes aiming to spark KC back into Super Bowl contention and Trevor Lawrence’s Jaguars out to prove their 3–1 start is no fluke. We break down the matchup, betting odds, line movement, and best bets, including a Chiefs team total and a Xavier Worthy prop play.
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NFL Week 5 Chiefs at Jaguars Betting Tips (Tuesday 11:15am AEDT)
Chiefs at Jaguars Best Bets
- Chiefs (Team Total) Over 24.5 – $1.88 @ NEDS (1.5u)
Kansas City’s offense looked rejuvenated last week. With Worthy back, Kelce healthy, and Mahomes locked in, 25+ points feels very achievable. Jacksonville’s defence is good but opportunistic — if they don’t generate multiple takeaways, KC should push past this number.
- Xavier Worthy Over 66.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards – $1.86 @ Bet365 (1.5u)
Worthy’s role continues to expand. With gadget plays, end-arounds, and vertical shots, his all-purpose production is a safe angle. If Trevon Walker is out, Mahomes will have more time for deep concepts to develop.
Last Week Recap
Jacksonville entered Week 4 as a three-point road underdog at San Francisco and walked away with a 26–21 victory. While the scoreboard suggests a tight contest, the story was really Jacksonville’s defence. The Jaguars forced four turnovers, including two interceptions of Brock Purdy, and limited the Niners to just 3.5 rushing yards per play.
Trevor Lawrence struggled again, completing only 21 of 31 passes for 174 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars’ passing attack ranks bottom 10 in EPA per dropback, and Lawrence has just five touchdown passes to four picks through four games. That inefficiency has forced the Jags to lean heavily on Travis Etienne, who continued his breakout season with 124 rushing yards and a score on 19 carries last week. Etienne ranks 6th in the NFL in scrimmage yards (485) and has been Jacksonville’s most consistent offensive weapon.
The Jaguars’ defence, however, is where the excitement lies. According to PFF’s grading system, Jacksonville sits inside the top five defensively, driven by their opportunistic secondary and improved pass rush. They rank 3rd in takeaways per game (2.3) and 4th in defensive success rate allowed (37%). If this unit continues to generate short fields, the Jaguars can weather their offensive limitations.
Kansas City’s Week 4 matchup was as close to a must-win as you’ll find in September. Sitting at 1–2 and hosting the Baltimore Ravens as home underdogs, the Chiefs delivered in style, cruising to a 37–20 victory.
Patrick Mahomes looked sharp, finishing 25-of-37 for 270 yards and four touchdowns. He spread the ball effectively, but the biggest storyline was the return of sophomore speedster Xavier Worthy, who racked up 121 all-purpose yards on a combination of deep shots and gadget plays. The Chiefs’ offense, which had sputtered through the first three weeks, looked much more dynamic and creative.
Defensively, Kansas City still showed cracks. Baltimore rushed for 166 yards at 9.8 yards per carry, continuing a trend of KC struggling against strong ground games. Through four weeks, they rank bottom 10 in EPA per rush allowed, giving opponents a clear blueprint: run at them and shorten the game.
Still, when Kansas City needs to respond, they typically do — and Mahomes in primetime has been money. Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are 15–4 in night games since 2020.
Match Preview & Betting Market
The Chiefs and Jaguars last met in Week 2 of the 2023 season in Jacksonville. Kansas City won 17–9 despite losing the turnover battle 3–1, holding Trevor Lawrence to 216 passing yards on 41 attempts. That game echoed their Divisional Round clash in the 2022 playoffs, when the Chiefs won 27–20.
Overall, Lawrence is 0–3 in his career against Kansas City, with just two touchdown passes across those games. For Jacksonville to finally break through, they’ll need Etienne to replicate last week’s performance while Lawrence finds rhythm against a Chiefs defence that has historically schemed him well.
Current Odds & Line Movement
- Lookahead line: Chiefs -3.5, Total 44.5
- Post-Week 4 opener: Chiefs -3, Total 44.5
- Current market: Chiefs -3.5, Total 46.5
Early respect came for Jacksonville after their win in San Francisco, bringing the spread down to a flat -3. But money has since come back on Kansas City, nudging it to -3.5. Market consensus suggests the public will continue to back the Chiefs, which could push the number to -4 by kick-off.
On the total, we’ve seen an upward adjustment to 46.5. Both teams are 2–2 to the over this season, and while Jacksonville’s offensive issues might point toward an under, bettors appear more interested in the upside of Mahomes in fast conditions in Jacksonville.
Betting Trends & Angles
- Chiefs in Primetime: Since 2020, Kansas City is 15–4 straight up in night games, but just 9–10 ATS. Public enthusiasm often inflates their number.
- Total Trends: Both teams are 2–2 to the over in 2025. The Jaguars have gone under in 6 of their last 9 primetime games, while the Chiefs have leaned over in 5 of their last 7 MNF appearances.
- Head-to-Head: The Chiefs have won eight straight against the Jaguars, dating back to 2010, covering in six of those contests.
Key Matchups
- Travis Etienne vs Chiefs Run Défense
Kansas City has allowed 4.9 yards per carry, ranking bottom 10 leaguewide. Etienne’s explosiveness on outside runs could tilt the game script if he gets going early.
- Mahomes vs Jaguars Pass Rush
Jacksonville ranks 7th in pressure rate despite blitzing at a league-average clip. The health of Trevon Walker, who is questionable, is critical. Without him, KC’s offensive line may give Mahomes enough time for deep shots to Worthy.
- Turnover Battle
The Jaguars are tied for 2nd in the NFL in takeaways (9). The Chiefs’ early-season turnover issues (five giveaways in the first three games) must not resurface.
Totals & Props
I project the total at 46.5 points, in line with the market. While KC’s defence has been leaky against the run, Jacksonville’s inability to capitalize through the air makes them a poor candidate for an offensive explosion.
Props could be where the real value lies:
- Travis Kelce receptions: Jacksonville has struggled covering tight ends, giving up the 8th-most yards to the position.
- Xavier Worthy total yards: With his role expanding, his ability to break a game open on one play makes the over appealing.
- Etienne rushing attempts: Likely to see heavy volume if Jacksonville wants to keep Mahomes off the field.
Final Thoughts
From a betting perspective, this is a tricky game. The spread is hovering in the grey zone between -3 and -3.5, with a potential move to -4 by kick-off. At -3, Kansas City is attractive; at +4, Jacksonville becomes interesting. As of now, neither side offers strong value.
The total has climbed, but at 46.5 it feels efficient. Lean under if the market pushes higher, especially given Jacksonville’s offensive struggles.
That leaves the Chiefs’ team total and player props as the cleanest ways to attack this game. Kansas City has shown they can score in bunches, and Worthy’s athleticism provides a dynamic edge that Jacksonville will struggle to contain.
Expect Kansas City to leave Florida with the win, but don’t expect Jacksonville to roll over. Their defence is good enough to keep it competitive, especially if Etienne gets rolling. For bettors, the best value lies in fading the full game lines and focusing on Chiefs-specific angles.
Also Backing: Xavier Worthy Over 66.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards $1.86 (1.5 Units)
Chiefs Team Total Over 24.5
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
