Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season concludes with another thrilling Monday Night Football double header — and with two primetime matchups on the board, there’s double the opportunity to find value. This week’s slate features four competitive teams all sitting at or above .500, setting the stage for two crucial clashes with real playoff implications.
In the early game, the Buffalo Bills (4-1) travel south to face the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons are fresh off a bye week and looking to make a statement in front of a national audience, while the Bills will be eager to bounce back after a frustrating divisional loss to New England.
An hour later, the Washington Commanders (3-2) host the Chicago Bears (2-2) under the lights in Landover. Both teams are coming off confidence-building results — Washington behind the energy of Jayden Daniels’ return, and Chicago after a much-needed bye week — and both have a chance to strengthen their position in crowded NFC divisions.
Let’s dive into both games and break down the matchups, betting angles, and best value plays for the Week 6 MNF slate.
2025-26 NFL Week 6 Tuesday Betting Tips
Atlanta Falcons (2-2) vs Buffalo Bills (4-1)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta – Tuesday 14th October, 10:15am (AEDT)
Last Week Recap
The Falcons return from their bye rested and refreshed, and they’ll need every bit of that edge against one of the league’s elite. In Week 4, Atlanta cruised past Washington 34-27, taking advantage of a Commanders side missing Jayden Daniels. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. showed tremendous growth, rebounding from a rough Week 3 against Carolina to throw for 313 yards and two touchdowns on an efficient 20-of-26 passing.
The star of the show, however, continues to be Bijan Robinson. The third-year back has emerged as one of the league’s most dynamic offensive weapons, contributing 75 rushing yards and a touchdown, plus 106 receiving yards — an absurd 89 of which came after the catch. Robinson’s combination of acceleration and balance has made him a nightmare for opposing linebackers, and he’s now surpassed 100 total yards in four straight games.
Drake London also put together a strong performance, finishing with 8 catches for 110 yards and a score, reminding everyone of his physical dominance on the perimeter. Defensively, Atlanta limited Washington to just 5.8 yards per play and controlled possession throughout.
The Bills, meanwhile, enter off a disappointing 23-20 loss to the Patriots on Sunday Night Football — their first defeat of the season. Turnovers were their undoing, as they lost the takeaway battle 3-1. Josh Allen still put up 253 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 53 rushing yards, but costly mistakes halted drives at critical moments. James Cook was bottled up for just 49 rushing yards, and without a consistent ground game, Buffalo’s offense looked somewhat predictable.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid was the lone bright spot, posting 6 receptions for 108 yards, continuing his breakout in his third year in the NFL. However, concerns linger for the Bills defensively — they currently rank 27th in EPA per play allowed and bottom 10 in both run defence and coverage grades per PFF. That’s a dangerous combination against an explosive Atlanta offense playing indoors.
Matchup Breakdown
This interconference matchup doesn’t carry historical heat — the teams last met back in Week 17 of the 2021 season, when Buffalo won 29-15 at Orchard Park. Josh Allen threw three interceptions that day but rushed for 81 yards and two touchdowns, a reminder of how his legs can rescue stalled drives.
Fast forward to 2025, and both rosters are almost unrecognizable. Atlanta’s offensive rebuild under Zac Robinson has leaned into explosiveness, while Buffalo’s defensive regression under Sean McDermott has been noticeable since his early days in charge.
On the betting front, Buffalo opened as 5.5-point favourites on the lookahead, but that number ticked down to -4 following their primetime loss to New England. Late money has continued to back Atlanta, with bettors liking the rest advantage and dome environment for the home side.
From a pure power rating perspective, Buffalo still grades out stronger — I have the Bills -5.5 on a neutral field — but it’s tough to justify laying points on the road against an offense this balanced. The Falcons’ home-field edge, particularly indoors, has been significant under Penix, where they’re averaging 29.7 points per game.
At Bills -4, I’m staying away from the spread. It’s difficult to fade Josh Allen in primetime, but equally risky to back a suspect Buffalo defence against an ascending Atlanta offense. However, there’s clear value elsewhere.
Totals & Betting Angles
The total opened at 49.5 after a lookahead of 50.5 and has since been bet back up to 50.0, a testament to how bettors expect points from both sides. With Buffalo ranking top-five in offensive DVOA and Atlanta playing at a top-eight pace at home, the conditions line up for a shootout.
Rather than the full-game total, though, I’m targeting a team total play. Josh Allen under a roof, in primetime, against an average pass defence, is historically money. Buffalo has scored 30+ points in four of five games this year, and Allen himself averages 28.6 points per game in his last eight indoor starts.
With Joe Brady calling the plays and Allen’s chemistry with Kincaid, Coleman and Shakir building weekly, expect Buffalo to move the ball efficiently. Atlanta’s defensive front has improved, but they still allow the eighth-most yards after contact and rank 20th in success rate on third down. If the Bills avoid turnovers, they should comfortably clear 27.5 points.
Player Prop Spotlight
As far as props go, it’s impossible to ignore Bijan Robinson’s receiving usage. His receiving line of 29.5 yards feels light given his recent production — he’s surpassed that number in three of four games and is averaging 67.5 receiving yards per contest on the year.
Against a Bills front that ranks 25th in success rate allowed to running backs in the passing game, expect Penix to lean on the dump-off when pressure closes in. Robinson has become his security blanket, especially on third downs.
If you’re feeling aggressive, this is a strong ladder candidate — but even the conservative over 30 should hit comfortably if game script holds.
Prop Bet: B. Robinson 30+ receiving yards - $1.90 (1.5u)
Buffalo Bills (team total) Over 27.5
$1.94 (2 Units)
Washington Commanders (3-2) vs Chicago Bears (2-2)
Northwest Stadium, Landover – Tuesday 14th October, 11:15am (AEDT)
Last Week Recap
The Commanders returned to form in Week 5, delivering a 27-10 upset win over the Chargers as road underdogs. After falling behind 10-0 early, Washington completely flipped the game script, scoring 27 unanswered points and controlling both lines of scrimmage.
Rookie running back Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt exploded onto the national radar with a breakout performance — 111 rushing yards, 14 carries, and two touchdowns, plus 39 yards through the air. His acceleration and vision stood out, giving Washington a legitimate number 1 option in the backfield, making the trade of Brian Robinson Jr look like extremely smart business.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels returned from injury and looked poised, throwing for 231 yards and a touchdown while adding 39 yards on the ground. Most importantly, Washington protected him well, allowing just one sack. Defensively, the Commanders’ pass rush overwhelmed Justin Herbert, registering five sacks and nine QB hits.
The Bears, meanwhile, enter off their bye. Their last outing, a narrow 25-24 win over the Raiders, raised more questions than answers. Despite forcing four turnovers (three interceptions from Geno Smith), the Bears’ offense sputtered, generating only 271 total yards. Caleb Williams struggled with accuracy (59.5% completions) and turnovers, narrowly avoiding multiple fumbles. Rome Odunze remained a bright spot with 69 receiving yards and a touchdown, but overall, the offense continues to lack rhythm and consistency.
Matchup Breakdown
The Commanders and Bears met in Week 8 last season in one of the wildest finishes of 2024. Washington led 12-0 with five minutes left before surrendering consecutive rushing touchdowns to fall behind 15-12, only for Noah Brown’s miraculous Hail Mary catch to snatch an 18-15 win on the game’s final play.
This week, Washington opened as 5-point favourites on the lookahead before settling at -4.5 following their win over Los Angeles. Despite Chicago’s extra rest, the market continues to back Washington, and for good reason. The Commanders’ defence ranks 6th in EPA per play since Week 3, while the Bears’ offense sits 28th in that same span.
Washington has also been a reliable favourite: 8-2 ATS as a home favourite over the past two seasons, while Chicago is just 2-6-1 ATS as a road underdog. Even with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson benefiting from an extra week to script plays, it’s hard to trust the Bears against a defensive front that can generate pressure from all angles.
My projection makes Washington a 6-point favourite, so there’s genuine value here. The Commanders’ blend of ground efficiency, defensive dominance, and home-field advantage should be enough to cover this number.
Total & Prop Market Insights
The total opened at 50.5, briefly ticked down to 50, and sits right in line with my model’s fair price. Washington’s tempo has slowed under Daniels’ steadying influence, while Chicago’s volatility makes the total a tough read. The Bears are 3-1 to the over, but that’s skewed by defensive scores and short fields from turnovers. No total play here, but the slight lean is to the over if you expect Williams to rebound off the bye.
Prop-wise, Croskey-Merritt is impossible to ignore. The Bears rank 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (143.2), 27th in explosive run rate allowed, and dead last in missed tackle rate. Washington’s offensive line has quietly become a strength, ranking 4th in adjusted line yards, and Bill’s snap share soared to a season-high 63% last week.
Expect another productive night for the rookie as Washington continues to feature him heavily in the run game.
Final Thoughts
Monday Night Football in Week 6 offers two compelling matchups that balance star power and intrigue. The early contest in Atlanta should deliver fireworks — Josh Allen’s Bills rebounding indoors against one of the NFL’s most entertaining young offenses, led by Bijan Robinson’s highlight-reel explosiveness. Expect points, pace, and plenty of fantasy relevance.
The late game, by contrast, feels like a battle of identity. Washington, rejuvenated under Jayden Daniels and anchored by a revitalized defense, looks like a legitimate NFC Wild Card contender. The Bears, still finding their offensive footing under Caleb Williams, face a major test on the road against one of the league’s most physical fronts.
Both games offer value in focused markets: Buffalo’s team total over feels like a smart way to back Allen without the defensive risk, while Washington -4.5 captures a surging team with matchup advantages in the trenches.
As always, manage units, shop lines, and enjoy what should be another thrilling Monday slate to close out Week 6.
Prop Bet: J. Croskey-Merritt 70+ rushing yards - $1.95 (1.5u)
Commanders (-4.5)
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
