South Australian Derby & Doomben 10,000 Betting Previews & Tips

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the two Group 1 races in Australia on Saturday, May 12^th. We have the Group 1 South Australian Derby at Morphettville in Adelaide, which is Race 7 on the card, and the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 at Doomben in Brisbane, which is Race 8 of their meeting.

We’ve taken an in-depth look at both races and offered our betting tips below!

Morphettville Race 7 – Group 1 South Australian Derby – 2500m

The Group 1 South Australian Derby is over the staying trip of 2500m and is restricted to three-year-olds.

TRENDS

This race was taken out by the favourite five years in a row between 2006-2010, but just two favourites have saluted since then – Zabeelionaire in 2012 ($4 equal) and Delicacy in 2015 ($1.90). In terms of barrier draws, there’s no real trend to work off in recent years. In the past 10 years, there’s been five horses win from double-digit barriers and five win from single-digit barriers. The obvious form race to look for in recent times has been the Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes, with five of the past eight winners of the Derby having had their final lead-up run in the Chairman’s.

TEMPO

I see this being run at a fairly even tempo overall. There’s little doubt that the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott runner (7) Runaway will take up the lead, with the horse likely to join it being (16) Box On Collins. (11) Silent Command is likely to be in a prominent position, while it will be interesting to see if they push forward on (2) Money Maher and (5) Main Stage. But outside of those obvious frontrunners, there doesn’t look to be much pace on paper.

KEY CHANCES

I expect the market to play pretty true here.

Darren Weir has taken out the past two editions of this race and he’s every chance of making it a hattrick with (4) Leicester ($4) here. He’s promised plenty throughout this campaign and while he’s won three of his seven starts this time in work, he probably should have won five. His run in the Port Adelaide Guineas two starts ago was huge, beaten just 1.6L after travelling three-wide without cover for the majority of the race. He bounced back nicely as the short-priced favourite last start in the Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes, which as aforementioned, has been a popular lead up race in recent years. I just think he maps perfectly from barrier 9 here. He should be able to settle midfield, which will allow him to get first run on some of his market rivals. That could be the difference.

(13) High ‘N’ Dry ($6) broke through for a 3L maiden win at Sandown in Melbourne three starts ago and his two runs since then have been enormous. He ran 3^rd, beaten 1L, in the Port Adelaide Guineas two starts ago, where he was 13^th on the turn and came widest in the straight to really finish off strongly. He followed that up with a similar performance behind Leicester in the Chairman’s Stakes last start, coming from last at the 800m mark to finish just 0.7L off the winner. He really does give the impression that the 2500m will suit him, but he’s once again going to have to do it the hard way after drawing barrier 18 here. The wide barrier isn’t necessarily what puts me off here, it’s more so the fact that Leicester will be ahead of him in the run and is sure to get a handy headstart.

Chris Waller’s charge (1) Tangled ($7) has had a great preparation without winning. He’s been placed in some proper Group 1 races, running 2^nd to stablemate D’Argento in the Rosehill Guineas before a 3^rd placing behind Levendi and Ace High in the Australian Derby. He dropped back to 2000m last start and very nearly won that, going down narrowly to Higher Ground, but we may see that form turn out fairly strong with Higher Ground sure to be a major player in the Queensland Derby. So overall, there’s little argument that Tangled brings the strongest form to this race. They’ve ridden him cold recently, which is likely to be the case again from barrier 15 here, but I just question whether 2500m is his best trip at this stage. I get the feeling he may be a better 2000m horse right now.

I think the clear value in the race is Tony McEvoy’s (16) Box On Collins ($34), which seems hugely over the odds. This horse was 4.5L back in 3^rd behind High ‘N’ Dry at Sandown three starts ago but relished the step up to 2000m at his next start, bolting in at Cranbourne. Last start he was beaten 2.8L by today’s race favourite Leciester, despite being checked and inconvenienced at the 200m mark. He’s got some work to do to turn the tables on the favourites here, but in a race that lacks tempo, he’s one at big odds that has place claims.

New Zealand visitor (6) High Sherriff has some claims and the wetter the track, the better for him. (7) Runaway is proven at the distance and will get an uncontested lead, while (9) Savaheat and (10) Rezealient have minor claims.

SELECTIONS

1^ST – (4) LEICESTER

2^ND – (13) HIGH ‘N’ DRY

3^RD – (1) TANGLED

4^TH – (16) BOX ON COLLINS

Doomben Race 8 – Group 1 Doomben 10,000 – 1200m

Good field of sprinters assembled for the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 here.

TRENDS

Favoured runners typically have a very strong record in this race but the past three editions of this race have been won by horses priced $9, $9 and $17. In terms of historical trends, there really isn’t much to mention. The only notable thing would be the fact that you have to go all the way back to 2000 to find a horse that won this race starting from an outside barrier (10 or wider). Lucky Hussler has been withdrawn and he was due to start from barrier 1, which means the horses that will now start from outside barriers are (3) Le Romain (barrier 12), (4) Care To Think (barrier 11), (11) The Mission (barrier 10) and (14) Houtzen (barrier 13). It’s important to note the track is currently rated a Soft 6 and although the weather forecast is for sunny conditions, I doubt the track will reach a Good rating.

TEMPO

There looks to be a fairly genuine tempo on paper her, but they’ll have to go very quick if they’re going to hold out last year’s winner (1) Redzel. (7) Monsieur Gustave might try to kick up on Redzel’s inside, as might (9) Thronum, while the sole three-year-old in the field (14) Houtzen has blinkers applied for the first time here and could look to burn across from the outside gate. I think Redzel will have the pace to hold them out and he has the ability to absorb pressure in front but there’s a very real chance that he could be involved in a speed battle in the early to mid-stages of the race.

KEY CHANCES

Regardless of that expected speed, I do think (1) Redzel is the one they have to beat. I think the market has it right in terms of him being favourite ahead of In Her Time, mainly based on the fact we’re racing at Doomben, which means it’s fairly advantageous to lead. He won this race last year on a Soft 7 and whether it’s wet or dry doesn’t matter. If he gets anything close to an uncontested lead, he’ll be very hard to run down.

The biggest danger does look to be (12) In Her Time, who won the Group 1 The Galaxy first up on a wet track, before being given absolutely no chance by Damian Lane in the TJ Smith Stakes. She’s since been back to the trials and was very impressive and comes into this race in career-best form. My query with In Her Time is the speed map. She’s drawn barrier so shouldn’t really have any issues, but she’s likely going to have to peel off backs and come a touch wide in the straight, which can be difficult to do when you’ve got a horse like Redzel leading.

Outside of the two dominant favourites, there is actually a few that could cause a boilover on the wet ground. (7) Monsieur Gustave is a $71 chance but has some decent claims to run a place at $16. He was 2L off Impending in the Victory Stakes first up, where he led before emptying out. His second up record reads five starts for four wins and a placing, while his record on soft ground is four starts, four wins. He’ll be right up there on the speed and while he’s not at the level of Redzel and co, he could run a bold race and cling on to a place at huge odds.

(8) Burning Passion won the Group 3 Hall Marks Stakes in Sydney last start and he’s another that will relish wet ground here. He’s won four of his six starts on heavy ground, while he’s won just three from 19 on Good ground. He also won his only start over this track and distance, so while he’s another that’s not quite Group 1 level, the conditions give him some place claims. (4) Care To Think has only missed a place on two occasions throughout his career. His record suggests he’s a better horse on firm ground and the wide draw isn’t going to help him here.

(11) The Mission is a $67 chance and isn’t going as terribly as his price suggests. His only two career wins have been on wet ground and he was just 2.2L off Trapeze Artist in the All Aged Stakes last start.

(9) Thronum and (13) English are genuine Group 1 horses, both with good records on wet ground. No surprise to see them feature in the finish. I’ll be prepared to take on Godolphin’s (2) Impending, who might just prefer firmer ground, while (3) Le Romain is likely looking for 1400m rather than a drop back to 1200m. (6) Spieth and (14) Houtzen can go around without me.

SELECTIONS

1^st – (1) REDZEL

2^nd – (12) IN HER TIME

3^rd – (7) MONSIEUR GUSTAVE

4^th – (9) THRONUM