The Listed McKell Cup is today's feature race. The track is currently a Good 4 but there is up to 10mm of rain predicted, so we could see that downgraded. The rail is in the 3m position, which typically plays very fair.
We've got tips and comments for every race on the card below, and you can also listen to Episode 61 of the Before You Bet Podcast, where Tim chats about today's Doomben and Rosehill meetings!
Best Bet: Race 5 - (9) Reelem In Ruby
Best Value Bet: Race 6 - (4) Conarchie
(5) Exceedence goes on top after an impressive debut win at Wyong, when flashing home from the back of the field to win. He probably doesn't want to give them such a big start today but he looks smart enough to make the step up to Saturday metro grade at this time of year. (8) Rotator looks the one he has to beat. She's first up from a spell and in her debut prep, she finished behind the likes of Amercement and Tenley. That ties into some of the strongest juvenile form of the season, so she'll find this a much easier affair. Hard to know where she will settle from barrier 1 but she's trialled nicely and Jason Collett is the perfect rider to weave a passage through. (4) Sun Patch could be the forgotten horse. His debut win at Kensington back in February was electric. He then failed to measure up in the SKyline Stakes behind subsequent Golden Rose winner Microphone but fresh from a spell, it wouldn't shock to see him show up.
Big field for the Highway Handicap and these are rarely races I'm keen to bet into. (17) Vigorish gains a run and could be a bit of value at $11. He comes into this third up from a spell. First up he was beaten half-a-length at Canberra and last start he was beaten 3.3L in a Highway. He had to go back that day after drawing wide but he should be better suited here from barrier 3. Up to his pet distance of 1400m, he's got a good third up record and Highway form is often the best form for Highways. (2) Our Echo drops in grade having run in a Listed race in Brisbane last start. He gets blinkers on for the first time and should be hard to beat. (6) Damselfly's Kept is first up into this for Albury trainer Mitch Beer, who often travels horses with success. She won easily first up last prep and trialled well into this.(13) Tarazel is the stablemate and if the rain comes, it brings her right into this.
Really only three that interest me here. Quite keen on (1) Ljungberg, who I have a decent opinion of as a horse. He won both first and second up last prep, before placing behind Vegadaze at his final two starts. He resumes from a spell today with a couple of soft trials under the belt, and even though he carries top weight, I think he's got a little class edge on the rest of these. The horse he'll have to run down is the Waterhouse/Bott-trained (5) Call Me Royal, who was only narrowly beaten first up over 1100m here. She's undefeated at this distance and looks the clear leader in the race. (11) England won first up at Scone to break his maiden. He can go on with it now.
Sticking with (1) Passage Of Time, who returns from Brisbane, where he was beaten 3L by Tyzone in Group 3 company. Prior to that he was a dominant winner on the Kensington track and should have also won first up but for a luckless run in the straight. He's got a good record at this track and distance, draws well in barrier 1 and finds a winnable race back in grade. (5) Onslaught is a decent horse on his day and looks to have trialled pretty well leading into his first up run here. His past couple of first up runs have been duck eggs but it wouldn't shock me to see him do something today. (9) Poetic Charmer is from the same stable and is also first up with two good trials under the belt. He's yet to crack it for a win from six starts at Rosehill but he has run 2nd on three occasions. (10) Oxford Tycoon has been heavily backed in early betting. He resumed with a 3rd placing over 1100m here, beaten half-a-length. Up in grade but down in weight, if he can get a good run from barrier 10 he'll be in the finish. (12) Kawaikini didn't fire last prep but has won three of her four starts when first up. Granted, they've all been in the bush but watch betting on her today.
Really only two horses I'm interested in here. (9) Reelem In Ruby looks one of the best chances of the day. She's had three starts this prep for one win and two defeats by 0.1L. Her last start was over this track and distance, where she took a while to wind up but charged late to be beaten a nose. She finds another very winnable race today and should get an ideal run from barrier 5. Looks very hard to beat. (8) Toryjoy is suited second up from a spell after running 4th in that same race. She was beaten 1.6L despite sitting wide without cover throughout and she does get a 1kg weight swing on Reelem In Ruby today, as well as a jockey change with Jason Collett taking over from Glyn Schofield. She tends to run well second up so expect her to go well. (4) Pumpkin Pie drops in grade and isn't hopeless, but it's been a long time between drinks.
Open race with plenty of deadwood going around and the one I'll be having something on could be one of those, but at $41 I have to have something on (4) Conarchie. He's had two runs back from a spell and both will look ordinary in the form guide (11th and 10th), but he's had excuses. Firstly, he never does anything in his first two runs back from a spell. From 18 starts first and second up, he's only ever won once; in fact that's the only time he's even placed. His third up record is significantly better though, with four wins from seven starts. Last prep he finished last second up and followed that with victory third up. His last start was actually inconclusive, he never got clear and wasn't tested the last 200m. That was in a similar race over 1400m here. He gets some weight relief today with the claim for Blaike McDougall and even though he's drawn very wide in 16, at least he'll get clear running. Don't be shocked to see sharp improvement at mammoth odds today. That will be my only play in the race.
It's a Waller-a-thon here with about seven runners in the field, which practically makes it a no betting race. (6) Girl Tuesday goes on top. She's suddenly found her form again after doing very little in her first four runs back this prep. Waller put that down to not handling wet ground and the form reversal is because she's found good ground again, so she won't want too much rain to fall at all. She's drawn well and gets Collett on board and looks the one to beat out of his runners. (2) Abdon draws ideally in barrier 1 and wasn't too far behind Grey Lion and Girl Tuesday last start, so he has to be considered again. If the rain does come, (1) Destiny's Kiss can't be overlooked at $26. He's won four races when third up from a spell and goes significantly better on wet ground than he does on firm. (14) Kellstorm is another at odds that isn't hopeless if the rain comes. He grows a leg on wet ground and he should be ready to show something third up from a spell.
Another big field and another Waller-a-thon with six runners engaged. (15) Asterius looks the best of them. He returned with a good run for 2nd over 1400m here at Rosehill, beaten 0.3L. Steps up to 1500m second up today, gets Jason Collett replacing Blaike McDougall and goes from barrier 14 to barrier 2. He's never missed a place second up and has never missed a place at the distance so with even luck he should be at least finishing in the money. (14) Manhattan Mist looks the value at $12. He finished 1.5L behind Asterius in that same race first up. He carried 60kg that day and drops to 55kg here. He's won two of his three second up starts and should take up a forward position from the wide gate. (18) Island Missile returned with a good run behind Desert Lord and he's capable of measuring up in a race like this. The draw is a bit sticky for him. (4) Gresham and (12) Strome are chances.
Four main chances to end the day. The money has come for (14) Spiritual Pursuit, who was impressive in her three starts last preparation. She won the first two and then bumped into the talented Baller last time we saw her. She's trialled well on two occasions leading into her first run back and she looks open to plenty of improvement given she's had just six career starts. No knock on her but she's already into $2.70 which is short enough. (4) Wagner had no luck whatsoever at Scone last start and finds a nice race to bounce back in here. He started a well-backed $3.80 favourite last start and if the rain does come it only suits him further. Drawn well in 7, should be going close. I backed (3) Chapelco last start and I'll butter up again today at $71. He's had no luck at all in his two runs back from a spell. First up he only got out late and last start he was caught wide without cover throughout the race. He's got a good third up record, he drops in weight and gets a much better draw today. $71 is huge odds. (7) Oneness ran huge despite being caught six-wide throughout the race first up. He's drawn much better in barrier 2 here and his second up record is two wins from three starts. Looks a great chance. I'll take the punt that the favourite gets beat here - backing Chapelco, Oneness and Wagner as a saver.
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