It’s January, which means the tennis tour is back in Melbourne for the first grand slam of the calendar year. Jannik Sinner and Madison Keys return to defend their 2025 titles, with an exciting fortnight ahead. Expert, Ace is here to bring you his best outright tips for both the men's and women's draw at the 2026 Australian Open!
2026 Australian Open Men's Outright Betting Tips
Men's Quarter 1
On the men’s side, it is hard to get overly excited about the outrights in a couple of sections, such is the dominance of the top two in rankings in Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Alcaraz sits in this quarter, and played an Exhibition against Jannik Sinner in the lead-up to the Australian Open, which some may say isn’t the ideal preparation to enter Melbourne battle-hardened. Looking at the draw though, the early rounds should allow the world number one to work into the fortnight reasonably well. In terms of early threats to the Spaniard in week 1, you can make a case for Sebastian Korda. That being said, the gap between the best and worst from the American is significant. At his best he can knock off most players on tour, however he did lose to Thanasi Kokkinakis with an injured shoulder earlier this week.
Corentin Moutet comes in under an injury cloud, making him even harder to trust (if that is possible). Tommy Paul showed some signs with a semi final appearance in Adelaide, but I feel he is more of a match-to-match prospect. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is an intriguing prospect, but sits too close to Alcaraz for me.
In the bottom half of the section, the big form name is Alexander Bublik, though he does have a quirky first round match-up against Jenson Brooksby. The rest of the seeds are all solid and capable of beating each other on their day in Frances Tiafoe, Flavio Cobolli and Alex De Minaur, which probably knocks down the value on the entire trio. With no clear standout name here outside of Alcaraz, there isn’t a lot standing out to me. However, Bublik has still been a little up-and-down, so I may look to oppose him in a head-to-head future.
Men's Quarter 2
This shapes as an interesting quarter in my opinion. The top names in the market include the top seeds in Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime, and justifiably so. It also includes Daniil Medvedev, who has returned to form with strong showings to close out 2025, and a title in Brisbane to kick off 2026. I think he is the most intriguing player of this section, and is certainly capable of making a solid run with his draw the way it shapes up. For me, this quarter shapes as Medvedev or FAA on one side, versus Zverev or Rublev on the other, and in terms of Slam pedigree, Medvedev is the clear standout.
Men's Quarter 3
Another interesting pocket of the draw. Maybe this is purely because Alcaraz and Sinner aren’t in the section. A good opportunity for some players to make a push for a semi finals appearance at a grand slam, particularly with Novak Djokovic coming in off no tennis having withdrawn from Adelaide. Of the other seeded players, Taylor Fritz is struggling with an ongoing knee issue, so is one to monitor in the early stages. Those two are the top two in the market, so maybe it is worth looking around for some longer odds if possible. Stan Wawrinka to win the quarter at $17 looks unders, however the returning Hubert Hurkacz could surprise in the quarter at $10 based off his United Cup form. I’d also be very wary of Lorenzo Musetti, who at $7.50 could fly under the radar as a player who is very tough to beat over the best of 5 set format. If he brings a level near his best, he might be able to make a solid push through week one.
Men's Quarter 4
Jannik Sinner is sub-$1.15, and that is pretty justified. That being said, there have been some matches where he has been vulnerable at grand slam level over the last 12 months. Holger Rune pushed him at the AO last year on a brutally hot day where Sinner was visibly shaking at a change of ends. Grigor Dimitrov was two sets up on him at Wimbledon before injuring himself. Even Felix Auger-Aliassime pushed him at the US Open. Ultimately though, Alcaraz is the main threat to Sinner. It is hard to make a really strong case for most names in this section, however Denis Shapovalov ($81 Ladbrokes) did have a break point for 4-0 in the third set at the US Open after splitting sets 1 and 2 with the Italian. Clutching at straws though when that is the best way into these quarter markets. It is a pass for me in the quarter markets.
Men's Summary & Tips
It is easy to look at all the outright markets and see some very big numbers against some very good tennis players. Ultimately, the prices are justified for the most part because Alcaraz and Sinner are a long way ahead of the rest of the pack. Of that pair, I think Alcaraz is a little stronger than Sinner in the best of 5 set arena on hardcourt, and for that reason I am inclined to side with the Spaniard in the outright market.
Here are the bets in the futures markets that appeal most to me:
1 unit - Carlos Alcaraz to win Australian Open - $2.76 Betfair
0.75 units - Daniil Medvedev Quarter 2 Winner - $3 at Ladbrokes
0.5 units - Andrey Rublev to reach Round 4 – YES - $2.25 Bet365
0.5 units - Who Will Go The Furthest? Lorenzo Musetti (vs Alex Bublik) - $1.72 Bet365
0.25 units - Lorenzo Musetti Quarter 3 Winner - $7 at Ladbrokes
2026 Australian Open Women's Outright Betting Tips
Women's Quarter 1
Aryna Sabalenka has largely had a stranglehold on this tournament over the last three years, with only a tight loss to Madison Keys in the 2025 final as the blemish. There are a couple of tricky obstacles on her way out of the first quarter, with potential second round meeting with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, third round meeting with Emma Raducanu, and fourth round meeting with Victoria Mboko who has put together a very solid week in Adelaide in the lead-up to match some big performances in 2025. Mboko is one to watch, but I wonder if she is better to consider match to match as opposed to a five or seven win outright bet.
The bottom half of this section is largely going to hinge on whether Ekaterina Alexandrova can bring a level that is somewhere near her best. Jasmine Paolini is the type of player who is generally beaten by a very good player, so it will be interesting to see how far she can go here. Sasnovich is a tricky first round match, and Iva Jovic in round 3 or Alexandrova/Marta Kostyuk in round 4 is tough, and that is just to likely meet Sabalenka in the quarter finals.
Women's Quarter 2
With Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva bookending this quarter, this looks to be quite stacked. In terms of pure star power and grand slam abilities, this quarter possesses Marketa Vondrousova, Karolina Muchova, and Elina Svitolina, plus the likes of Dayana Yastremska, Emma Navarro, Diana Shnaider, Barbora Krejcikova, Alex Eala, Maria Sakkari and Donna Vekic.
The way I look at this section, whoever emerges is going to have had to play an exceptionally high level of tennis over multiple rounds. There are very few soft matchups here, and that alone slightly dampens the appeal of Sabalenka to make the final at current prices.
Looking at what’s available in the market, this feels like a quarter where the depth actually leads to a struggle to find significant value. I’ve settled on a small play on Muchova to win through in this section, however you could certainly make the case for a stack of players. As I said, the winner of this quarter will have played VERY well. From a betting perspective, this looks far better suited to round-by-round or head-to-head positions rather than a large quarter outright bet.
Women's Quarter 3
This quarter is stacked with established hard-court performers and feels far more dangerous than a typical third quarter. Jessica Pegula sits at the top of the section, but she is surrounded by players capable of genuinely threatening on their day.
Madison Keys brings obvious upside give her power and her level here in 2025, however with being a defending grand slam champion comes some added pressures as well. Paula Badosa and Leylah Fernandez are two competitive players that can genuinely threaten anyone in this section on their day. The same can be said for Sofia Kenin and Jelena Ostapenko, who remain difficult matchups on their day, but they are also prone to sharp drop-offs which makes future betting difficult. Ostapenko is hard to trust given her recent form struggles.
One player I think is very live in this section is Amanda Anisimova. Her back end of 2025 was exceptional, and she now plays as a player that believes in herself and believes she deserves to be at the top of the WTA. I don’t see myself opposing Anisimova in any great fashion this fortnight, and she looks a good price to make the final here.
Women's Quarter 4
Iga Swiatek anchors this quarter, and while Melbourne isn’t necessarily her most dominant Slam, her early draw is workable if she brings a level near her best. The standout danger in this section, however, is Elena Rybakina. On pure hard-court tennis, I’d argue she has the highest ceiling of this entire quarter. Her serve and flat ball-striking are perfectly suited to Melbourne conditions. If she strings together early wins, she profiles as the most realistic challenger to Swiatek in this section.
Belinda Bencic also sits in an interesting spot here. Her ability to redirect pace and take time away from opponents makes her a genuine threat if she builds confidence, particularly against players who prefer rhythm. Naomi Osaka is another that adds intrigue, but her ability to string matches together is more of a question mark at the moment. Elise Mertens deserves some respect as well based on her United Cup form, and outside of the names listed, it would take a pretty impressive performance from someone else in the section to progress. Personally, my outright preference is Rybakina, and will look to other specific match-ups to attack head to heads.
Women's Summary & Tips
The WTA is in great shape to start the 2026 season. This draw looks stacked and it will be filled with fascinating matches. With all the top players capable of beating each other on their day, I will keep the staking low on the outrights. Here are the outrights that caught my eye:
0.5 units - Karolina Muchova Quarter 2 Winner - $6 Ladbrokes
0.5 units - Amanda Anisimova to Reach the Final - $4.33 Bet365
