The South Australian carnival is upon us and we kick off at Morphettville on Saturday with a double header of Group 1 racing.
The Australasian Oaks and Robert Sangster Stakes headline the 8 race card, on what is currently rated a Soft 5 track. Given the relatively fine weather it wouldn't come as a surprise to see it upgraded to a Good 4 by Saturday.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below!
Morphettville Racing Tips - Saturday 6th May
Race 1
Think there's a couple at decent odds worth backing in the opener. GREAT ESTEEM has to carry plenty of weight here and quite a significant amount more than the rest of the field, but from barrier 1, he should find the lead quite easily in the small field. He carried 60kg in the Cranbourne Cup three starts ago when finishing 3rd, and backed that up with a solid run behind Burning Front two starts ago. That form is good enough to win a race like this and if he dictates things in front he'll be hard to run down. $6 available for him which looks a nice price. The value in the race is TIDY PROPHET who hasn't shown much at all in two starts back from a break but that's normal for him as he really peaks at his third run back. He's had five third-up runs and has never missed a place (with two wins in there), and if the track is still in the Soft range it brings him right into things. He's had 11 starts on Soft ground for five wins and three placings, so with no weight and a good draw he could run a big race at $10.
Tip: Great Esteem / Tidy Prophet EW
Race 2
I thought LAMBORGHINI's Australian debut was impressive, coming from well back in the field to charge late, which was against the pattern of the day. The step up to 2000m will be in his favour (he won over 2100m two starts ago) and he goes very well on Soft ground or Good ground. SECOND BULLET drops from Group 3 company in Melbourne to Open company in Adelaide. The horse that beat him last start then came out and ran 2nd in the Warrnambool Cup, so the form is good, and that makes him a huge chance in this race. KOURKAM bounced back to form with a dominant win at Oakbank last start and gets the eye catching booking on Joao Moreira.
Tip: Lamborghini
Race 3
Two I'm interested in here. The first is Darren Weir's horse INDIAN THUNDER who won on debut at Bendigo before losing it on protest. He was backed off the map that day and the horse that eventually won on protest has since come out and won at Wagga on Thursday. Gets a plum draw and Damian Lane is riding as good as anyone right now and when Weir puts him on it's generally a hint. The second horse is IT'S A MYTH who was luckless first up in the Cinderella Stakes before hitting the line really strongly last start behind Tabbing. Is worse off at the weights here against Tabbing but I thought she was the one to follow out of the race, and with Noel Callow taking over from the apprentice here she rates a big chance.
Tip: Indian Thunder / It's A Myth EW
Race 4
If FAATINAH were to bring his best form to this he'd be winning, and with Joao Moreira back on board he may well do so. But I just can't tip him with any confidence given his inconsistency . I found it hard to confidently tip anything here and almost ended up with BASSETT by default based on recent form. He's done nothing wrong since returning from his 67 day break and looks a completely different horse. He bolted in at Sandown in BM78 grade before taking that winning form to two Listed races. He has a bit of weight to carry today but Oliver takes over and from barrier 7 he should be handy to the speed. At $4.80 he's worth backing. The value could be KAEPERNICK and THERMAL CURRENT, both at double figure odds. Kaepernick has yet to hit his top form so far this prep but he finished off nicely last start behind Malibu Style and was racing in Group 1 company before that. Thermal Current hasn't been at his best recently but he hasn't been terrible. From barrier 1 he'll have the cold sit on Faatinah and Bassett and that could be the difference.
Tip: Bassett
Race 5
Very tricky race to assess with a number of form lines and a number of chances. Sticking with AMELIE'S STAR who should be ready to hit her top third up from a 570 day spell. She's going to be even better over further but if the track remains soft she looks a big chance here with D Lane aboard. The value in the race could be LOPARTEGA who only won a moderate race last start but did so in dominant fashion. Her third up record is superb and from the good draw I'd expect her to be competitive here. CONSAMMATEUR went from a BM64 win to a Group 3 win over 1900m last start, but the unknown is whether that was due to the Heavy track. It's hard to know how she'll fare here with the drop back to 1600m and the firm surface. The big unknown in the race is the local HAVE ANOTHER GLASS who has won her last four starts. She returned from a spell last start and bolted in at Oakbank, and while it was only BM75 company, she was very impressive. Interested to see how she lines up here.
Tip: Amelie's Star / Lopartega EW (Best Value)
Race 6
Looks a race between EGG TART and KENEDNA and I'd be surprised if anything outside of that won here. Egg Tart is three from three this prep, with two wins in Sydney before a dominant win in Melbourne last start. Significantly, they have all been on heavy tracks, so it will be interesting to see if she carries that form onto the firm ground here, but her win at the end of last prep suggests the ground won't be an issue if it is indeed Good. Love the booking of Kerrin McEvoy and think she is perfectly suited going up to 2000m for the first time. KENEDNA has won her past two in Adelaide and previous to that ran 3rd behind I Am A Star and Ellicazoom which is tremendously strong form. She bolted in after a terrific ride from John Allen last start and the 2000m won't be an issue. Much better drawn today but she'll still be back in the field and she'll still need a bit of luck. Hard to beat nonetheless. HARLOW GOLD should really appreciate getting back onto the firmer ground.
Tip: Egg Tart (Best Bet)
Race 7
Competitive race with a big field lining up. I'm with SHEIDEL who ran 2nd in this race last year and has since gone on to win the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate when first up this prep. She comes into this off a 43 day freshen up and should be able to find the front from barrier 10. Joao Moreira reunites with her and it doesn't matter what the track rating is as she handles it all. Happy to take the $5.50. Hardest to beat could be SUPER CASH who comes into this first up off a 56 day break. She's won a trial in the interim, but she's undefeated when first up from longer spells so if she has freshened up well then she'll run a huge race here. First up this time in she beat I Am A Star and Chautauqua which has turned out to be tremendous form. VIDDORA has returned in super order and draws to get a gun run, so he is worth including in exotics. So too is EGYPTIAN SYMBOL who is undefeated first up and has a tremendous record at the distance. MISS GUNPOWDER draws horribly but looks over the odds at $34, while the blowout could be LEGLESS VEUVE at $41. Happy to take on English here and keeping a close eye on Now Or Later.
Tip: Sheidel
Race 8
Pretty keen to back FUHRYK here who returns from a 63 day break, though Tom Dabernig has said she's still been kept in work without going for a spell. Her first up record is unblemished with three wins from three starts, and just two starts ago she won a Group 3 over 1200m in Melbourne in dominant fashion. She draws to get a perfect run here and at $7 I can't let her go around without backing her. I am terrified of KEN'S DREAM and will definitely be having a saver bet on him. He was enormous last start after sitting three wide the trip and the horse that beat him is pretty handy. The money really came for Ken last start and if he had a better run he would have won. He draws to get a lovely run here from barrier 5 and there's no doubt he is a massive winning chance. The value is TOY BOY who ran 2nd to Ken's Dream last start, which was just his second career start. He charged home and will have to do so again from the horror barrier, but he looks a very progressive horse and at $10 he's worth having something on.
Tip: Fuhryk / Toy Boy EW
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
