Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, December 1st.
The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the True position.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race on the card below.
Best Bet: Race 5 Mintha
Best Value Bet: Race 6 Essence Of Terror
Happy to stick with Mischa, who has been fairly dominant in winning both starts this preparation, with the most recent of those being over the 1000m at this track. Steps up to 1200m today but that looks no problem with the way she hit the line last start. Draws well, Linda Meech on board, looks a great chance once again. Social Spin draws well first up and should be competitive based on his form last preparation, while Advancing comes off a dominant win at Moe and can make the step up in grade here. Happy to take on Smart Elissim.
Absolutely no need to be betting here with eight runners on debut. It’s hard enough to find winners at the Valley, let alone when three quarters of the field hasn’t been seen on raceday. One that I did notice at the jumpouts was Company Line, who jumped out well behind Bandinelli, who was subsequently very well backed on debut (but failed). From the good draw, $13 isn’t the worst price. But there’s too many unknown factors to be investing heavily.
My Pendant will need some luck in running and is likely to be coming from well off the speed but I was really impressed with the way she hit the line when winning at Sandown last start. She seemed flat footed for a brief moment but showed a devastating turn of acceleration to put her rivals away comfortably in the end, so provided she handles the tighter circuit at the Valley, I think she can win again.
Fairly low race this for a Saturday in the city. Second Marriage was a dominant winner in BM58 grade two starts back before simply getting too far back when stepping up to this grade last time out. Worked home well to be beaten just 2L and from barrier 1 here should be able to sit closer in the run, just as she did when winning at Echuca. The Regiment has been knocking on the door all prep and comes off a luckless run at this track last start from a wide draw. Drawn wide again today but Craig Williams takes over and with any luck he should be right in the finish.
If Mintha can bring her best form to this race she’ll surely be very hard to beat. She didn’t do a lot first up but she rarely does and that was in a much harder race than this. She drops back from Group 3 company and Tony McEvoy was very bullish about the way he’s got her going. With even luck from barrier 7 she should take a stack of beating. Penny To Sell is yet to place from four starts at the track but is racing well this preparation, Snogging is an obvious danger, while Valeria Messalina won first up and was a dominant winner second up last preparation so I’d be keeping her safe.
Grey Shadow is the best horse in the race but barrier 11 first up from a six-week spell is a little bit concerning. She could go forward or back but there’s risks involved with both of those. Fill The Flute is absolutely flying this preparation with three consecutive wins. The margins have all been significant and she returns from an eight-week break. The wide draw and the 3kg apprentice are a couple of little worries but if she can get across from that gate, she’ll be very hard to run down. Essence Of Terror looks the value at $7. She’s put in two terrific runs to open her campaign and she actually ran far better than what I expected last start given her previous second up record. Her third up record is much better so with Williams taking over today, I’d expect another big run from her.
Pretty happy to stick with Our Luca who has won both starts back from a spell this time in. The first was over the 955m here and the latest was stepping up to 1200m. Back to 1000m today which is probably suitable for him and you’d expect him to find the front and give another very good sight today. Thermal Current and Ken’s Dream are the two class gallopers in the line up. Hard to know how tuned up the latter will be for this, but the former keeps running well without a great deal of luck. Happy to take on Invincible Al with the 3kg apprentice on from an awkward gate.
Looks somewhat of a race in two between Al Galayel and Top Prospect here. Al Galayel was only run down by a smart one in Savacool at Flemington last start. He draws well and really gets his chance to win today. Top Prospect was only second up when he won his own race at Flemington during the carnival, so you’d think there’s still more improvement to come with him. The wide draw is a bit tricky for him but if he gets a tow into the race he’ll be hard to hold out. Oncidium Ruler can be a big improver second up at $26.
Competitive finish to the card. Sirius Suspect just continues to show up and run well. He nearly pulled off a race during the Flemington carnival last time we saw him, only to be defied by a smart one in Order Of Command. It’s always a concern backing horses in races like this after they’ve been set for races during the carnival and especially from the Weir stable, but if he reproduces the same level as his past couple of runs he’ll be the one to beat. Demolition is the fresh horse on the scene, coming into this first up. Barrier 9 of 9 obviously makes things pretty tricky. Exceltara and Magnesium Rose are both each way chances.
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