A solid day of racing across the metro tracks today, including Flemington, Randwick and Doomben. The Horse has found today's best bets on those programs, including a couple at nice value. Check out his best bets below or head over to our dedicated horse racing site, RacingBet, for in-depth analysis, odds comparisons and horse racing tips for every race!
Horse Racing Tips: Saturday December 19th
Flemington Race 1
The day commences with the 2600 metres stayers race. The Maher/Eustace gelding (3) Batholomeu Dias excels at range and comes in as favourite after an eighth in easier company over 2040 metres. Understandably, this is a better distance for the runner, but with 4 wins overall from 24 starts he is not exactly a prolific winner. He has definitely shown he is a quality horse on his day, and John Allen is more than capable of getting the best from him, but I am willing to take him on here considering the short odds of $2.70.
The best horse in the race is (1) Princess Jenni who has Melbourne Cup winning jockey Jye McNeil on board. The David Brideoake mare has been already racing at this distance this preparation, fifth behind Attorney in Listed grade last time out, while winning the Group 3 Ballarat Cup the race prior. She commenced this preparation in Group 1 company, but has since dropped in grade. Jenni gets a nice inside gate and should drop in one-back along the rail—so every chance to get the gun run, and the opportunity to save fuel along the way. And she will need to, as the query is the weight, lugging the 62kgs due to the handicap conditions.
The other interesting runners who should be in the finish are (4) Wentwood who continues to perform well despite progressing up in grade and (2) Djukon for the Chris Waller stable. The rest look unlikely. When the best horse in the race, Princess Jenni, is paying almost twice the price of the favourite—you know where my money is going! The TAB in-venue offer surely has us covered here.
Flemington Race 3
Happy to follow the favourite here in the third (3) Sensationalisation for the Price/Kent stable. Damien Oliver takes over from Michael Walker, so there is no loss in terms of the jock. The Written Tycoon filly won her last start at Geelong over the 1300 metres. It was her best performance so far, despite being a short-priced favourite; she beat a large field comfortably. There is every indication she continue to perform well. Especially if we go with the old adage that mares hold their form.
The chances don’t end with her, (4) Dance To Dubai for the Moody stable has been performing well and has claims. While (11) Zou Dancer should equally in the mix despite rising from a bm64 grade. The one at nice odds of $12 is (2) Mystic Falcon.
(3) Sensationalisation
$2.80
Randwick Race 3
There is a good field meeting over the 2000 metres, many of which are rising in grade. (1) Elaborate looks well placed after a win in bm78 over 1400 followed by a second in bm88 over 1600. The rise in distance should be a positive, having already won twice in this range. Likely to drop back in running, so might need the splits and even luck to fight out the finish. At the double figure odds, might be well worth a penny.
The one that has shown some consistent form is (8) Accountability for the Waller stable. James McDonald stays with him here, and has been pretty positive about his chances. He should be nice and fit for this, noting his last two starts have been at this distance, and he gets a friendly enough draw to get some cover behind the leaders. I like the way he closed off last race despite not winning, he was simply too far back, whereas today he should be closer in the run. If he gets the right breaks, those closing sectionals should come right into play.
The horse he will need to run by is (6) Gone Bye who finished ahead of Accountability last start. But the tables can be turned here, Gone Bye does have the apprentice claim, but it doesn’t trump the jockey experience. But with a nice inside draw we can expect Gone Bye to look the winner a couple hundred metres from home.
Also backing: (1) Elaborate - $11 at Ladbrokes
Doomben Race 8
The 1200 metre Gold Edition looks a great race—with plenty of chances, but two main players for me. The short priced favourite (11) Isotope was arrogant last start winning by around 3 lengths. That run was at this track and distance. The local runner will have plenty of support, so unsure whether you’ll get better odds before jump. From the middle draw, Ryan Maloney will look to land just off the speed. There is a chance he could land in an awkward position three wide fighting for the lead. She will handle the Soft surface, so there is a lot to like. The big question here is whether the QLD form can stack up against the form from NSW and VIC.
That said, the horse who might be trailing her in the run is (9) Away Game who brings Group 1 from the South. Looking at her form lines, there is class everywhere. A genuine star, and Group 2 winner already, she is the threat. She is the best horse in this field, and we can expect the Maher/Eustace stable to have her ready first-up. Likewise, she is going to handle the Soft conditions, and it shouldn’t matter if there is a change to the surface. We can expect her to stalk Isotope in running and pounce—and she should be good enough to upset the favourite.
