There are two games on Sunday in AFL Round 16 and the first of those will see North Melbourne and Essendon lock horns at Marvel Stadium. The Kangaroos will be looking to stay in the hunt for a top 10 spot with a win, while the Bombers will be desperate to snap their long losing streak. We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Kangaroos vs Bombers clash below!
North Melbourne vs Essendon Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 16
North in Wildcard Hunt
North Melbourne returns to Marvel Stadium this Sunday looking to build on their most promising campaign in almost a decade. Sitting in 10th place on the ladder with seven wins and seven losses, Alastair Clarkson has his squad playing a highly competitive brand of football. The Kangaroos are coming off a 25-point victory over Richmond last week, marking their second consecutive win. While they are not necessarily setting the competition on fire, they are doing exactly what is required against teams sitting below them on the ladder. The mood down at Arden Street is certainly positive, especially with vice-captain Harry Sheezel signing a contract extension to lock him in until 2032. Adding to that, defender Josh Goater has been named to make his long-awaited return after more than two years out of the side, giving the Roos a welcome emotional boost as they push to keep their finals hopes alive.
Bombers Bound for Spoon
Essendon arrives at Marvel Stadium facing an absolute crisis. Languishing at rock bottom in 18th spot on the ladder, the club is navigating a turbulent period following the recent axing of Brad Scott. With Dean Solomon taking the reins as interim coach and a selection panel currently hunting for a full-time replacement, the off-field distractions are immense. The Bombers have swung the axe at the selection table in a desperate bid to find some form, making four significant changes to their squad. While they do regain some much-needed midfield class with skipper Andy McGrath, Darcy Parish, and Jye Caldwell returning for his 100th game, dropping highly touted youngster Elijah Tsatas highlights the ongoing instability within the camp. Finding the motivation to piece together four solid quarters of football is proving incredibly difficult for a squad severely lacking in confidence.
Recent H2H History
Looking at the recent head-to-head track record between these two traditional rivals, North Melbourne has managed to grab the upper hand this year. The Kangaroos and Bombers clashed earlier this season in round three, where Alastair Clarkson’s men secured a hard-fought 12-point victory. That early-season encounter was a highly physical and heated affair, marked by plenty of spot fires and aggressive midfield matchups. The Roos were able to dictate the terms around the stoppages in that game, starving the Bombers of quality inside-50 entries. Given the drastic shift in trajectories for both clubs since that March meeting, this weekend presents an entirely different psychological battle.
What to Expect?
North Melbourne is the clear pick to get the job done here, and backing them to cover the -13.5 spread is the smartest play on the board. The Kangaroos are doing exactly what they need to do right now, which is reliably putting away the teams worse off than them on the ladder. On the other side of the coin, Essendon is simply too disorganised to trust. The Bombers have failed to cover the line in a majority of their recent fixtures, constantly struggling to restrict opposition scoring chains. Trusting them in their current state is a massive gamble, particularly with their structural instability and constant personnel changes limiting their ability to generate winning scores. Expect North Melbourne to dominate the midfield battle, capitalise on a fragile Essendon outfit, and secure a comfortable victory that easily clears the 14-point margin required.
North Melbourne -13.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
North Melbourne vs Essendon Prop Bet
It hasn’t been Nick Larkey’s best season in front of the big sticks despite his team’s improvement, however he has a big chance to fill his boots on Sunday. Larkey kicked four goals against the Eagles two weeks back and averages 2.4 goals against the Bombers across his last five matchups. And with the Roos expecting to control the match and dominate the inside 50 count, those numbers should only trend upwards.
Nick Larkey 3+ Goals
$2.10
North Melbourne vs Essendon Same Game Multi
North Melbourne to Win: For the reasons mentioned above in our best bet.
Nick Larkey 3+ Goals: For the reasons mentioned above in our prop bet.
Harry Sheezel 30+ Disposals: He’s in terrific form, recently signed a big extension, and comes up against the worst team in the competition. Expecting another big game from him.
Mason Redman 20+ Disposals: With Archie Roberts out injured and Zach Merrett a chance to get tagged for the Roos again, Redman should be one of the main accumulators in the defensive half for the Bombers. He’s also coming off 24 disposals last week and 30 three weeks back.
North Melbourne vs Essendon Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Sunday 28th June
Time: 3:15pm AEST
Location: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Odds: North Melbourne $1.46 vs Essendon $2.72
Line: -13.5
Points: 171.5
Where to Watch North Melbourne vs Essendon
You can watch the Kangaroos vs Bombers live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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