Flemington Racing Tips for Saturday, September 15th

September 14th 2018, 4:39am, By: tim_tips

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, September 15th, featuring the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes.

We have nine races on a Good track but there is 4-10mm of rain predicted on Saturday. With that said, Flemington tends to drain very well. The rail is in the True position.

We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below and you can also tune into Episode 51 of the Before You Bet Podcast!

FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS

Best Bet: Race 9 #15 Furrion

Best Value: Race 1 #3 Master Zephyr

 

RACE 1

The last time we had a staying race to open the card I ended up with egg on my face after (2) Jaameh put in an abysmal effort. Perhaps getting back to the 2500m at Flemington will see him bounce back to form, along with a stack of gear changes. (1) High Church won the race Jaameh failed in, which was over 2400m at Caulfield. He’s back in winning form but looks a poisonous price at $4.80 here. He’s had eight starts at Flemington, including three at this distance, and has never placed. He goes up 4kg in weight from his last-start victory and carries 2.5kg more than any other runner. Very happy to oppose him today. (3) Master Zephyr his stablemate is the one I’d rather be on at $8.50. He finished 4th behind High Church last start and even though he was beaten 3.85L, his final 600m sectionals were pretty good. That was his first run at 2400m this prep so with five runs under the belt now, he is ready to win. He’s won three times from six starts at this distance and won his only start over 2500m at Flemington. (4) Hush Writer was well-backed on his Australian debut at Moonee Valley last start but overraced badly and was beaten a long way. He was Group 2 placed over a similar distance in France so with that run under his belt he can improve. (5) Mr Clarify was very good two starts ago and nothing went his way last start. I was keen on him before he was scratched a week or two ago and he shouldn’t be underestimated at double figure odds. (6) The Statesman was a big flop over in Adelaide last start and needs to improve to win this. (7) Tiffany’s Lass looks the likely leader and she’s in flying form. She was helped by the huge bias at the Valley last start but her form has been very solid nevertheless.

 

RACE 2

This is the definition of a lottery. The chances: (2) Zizzis should be undefeated from three career starts and resumes today. From a very astute stable and Mark Zahra sticks with her after riding her in a trial recently. Have something on at $20. (4) Multaja was good in defeat last start at the Valley and couldn’t have been more impressive in her two victories preceding that. Did a bit of work to get up on speed last start and can just settle where she’s comfortable down the straight today. (6) Sweet Rockette was the filly who beat Multaja at the Valley and she was only first up whereas Multaja was second up. She sat wide without cover throughout the race so it was a big effort to win. It’s quite staggering that Multaja is a $3.80 chance here yet Sweet Rockette is $11. (7) Smart Melody has won all three career starts. She bolted in at each of her first two and resumed with a strong enough win at Wyong first up. This seems significantly tougher than that and Brenton Avdulla does come down for the ride. From a very smart stable but she seems short enough at $3.00 given the vabriables she has to overcome today. (8) Thine Is The Power has put two good wins together and her form from two starts ago can be tied in to the likes of Multaja and Sweet Rockette through Kinky Boom. (10) Music Bay is a South Australian filly who comes into this first up. Craig Williams went close on a Phillip Stokes runner last weekend and it’d be no shock to see this filly win here. (11) Cristal Eyes was luckless first up behind Sweet Rockette and Multaja. Damien Oliver sticks with her following that effort and she has straight track experience too. (13) Trilli beat Sweet Rockette last preparation and should have won first up. Don’t underestimate her.

TIP:

(6) Sweet Rockette
$11.00

BET NOW AT Ladbrokes

Value: (2) Zizzis $20 Ladbrokes

 

RACE 3

Very competitive race. One I’m pretty keen on each way is (4) Interlocuter at $16. He was poor last preparation but this time last year he was absolutely airborne. He resumes here with the synthetic hoof filler off, which indicates he probably had some feet problems last prep. If he can rediscover that form from last year, he’d be very hard to beat in a race like this. Whether he’s sharp enough first up at 1400m is a query but Damian Lane is a positive jockey booking. (1) Theanswermyfriend deserves to be favourite given he’s won three straight and has never finished outside the top two at this track and distance from five attempts. He carrries 59.5kg today and there looks to be a bit of speed in the race but with stats like that you couldn’t rule him out. (2) Dollar For Dollar drops right back in grade after failing in Group 1 company last start but he’s too short for mine. Expect sharp improvement from (5) Cliff’s Edge who resumed in an unsuitable race over 1200m first up. Up to 1400m now suits him better but he might need one or two more runs. (8) Waging War was very good first up and did bolt in over 1600m at Caulfield last prep but this is probably a tougher race. He’s about his right price.

TIP:

(1) Theanswermyfriend
$4.40

BET NOW AT Pointsbet

Value: (4) Interlocuter $16 Ladbrokes

 

RACE 4

(3) Brutal was very good when winning at the Valley last start, despite the margin only being very small. He has the speed to lead this field if they wish to and he’s going to be very hard to run down from the front. (6) The August is a good type and ran well last start behind Native Soldier. Third up and up to 1400m now suits. (11) Leonardo Da Hinchi was very heavily backed to beat Brutal at Moonee Valley last start and ran well on a day when it was impossible to make ground. No surprise to see him run a bold race here given how much support he had last start. (13) Declarationofheart made it two from two with a midweek win at Sandown first up. Mark Zahra jumps off (16) Qafila to keep the ride on him which is a positive sign, because Qafila certainly has claims in a race like this. (5) Crockett was a blowout winner last start and could outrun his price once again.

 

RACE 5

Tricky race. I backed (1) Hey Doc first up at the Valley over 1000m where in hindsight he just wasn’t suited over the 1000m with 60kg. Flemington 1200m second up is a much better scenario for him and he gets his chance today. I’m siding with the people’s horse (4) Rich Charm though. His run at Caulfield behind Ball Of Muscle first up was enormous, where he recorded the second fastest final 200m of the race (Santa Ana Lane was the fastest). Ideally he would have had one more run but he did win second up last preparation and he’s a dual winner over this track and distance. (7) Kemono has been pumped up by Weir ever since he arrived in Australia. He was only fair first up in that same race but Weir said all along he’d be significantly better second up. He’s a scary horse to be against. (8) I’m Wesley is the blowout after pulling up with thumps first up.

 

RACE 6

Only three or four real chances I’m interested in here and I think it will be the race-fit horses that are the ones to be with. There’s plenty of good mares involved here but a number of them are first up and probably not suited. (1) I Am A Star has had two runs back from a break and comes into this third up. She’s a Group 2 winner over this track and distance previously and has two wins from four starts when third up. Has the wide barrier to deal with but she’s suited today. (2) Bella Martini will push forward from her wide barrier and she’s also a Group 2 winner over this track and distance. The query is that she starts from barrier 14 today whereas that Group 2 victory came when she started from barrier 1 and got all the favours. She comes out of a very strong race first up though, where she was beaten 1.7L by Osbourne Bulls. Land Of Plenty has come out of that race and really franked the form with a dominant win at the Valley last weekend. If she can get across from out wide without spending too much petrol, she will be tough to run down. (8) Merriest led all the way at the Valley last start ona  day where it was a leaders paradise. She’s placed in all three third up runs previously so looks a good each way chance again. (11) Mrs Gardenia dead-heated first up and while Weir says this is a much tougher race, it wouldn’t shock to see her run a mighty race with the good draw. (13) Petition will be hitting the line hard.

TIP:

(2) Bella Martini
$5.50

BET NOW AT BetEasy

Value: (11) Mrs Gardenia $18 BetEasy

Ladbrokes Odds Boost

 

RACE 7

Very deep field for the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes, with any number of winning hopes. (1) Happy Clapper might be the forgotten horse here at $7.00. He was completely unsuited first up in the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield. Back to Flemington and up to 1600m are both huge ticks and coming into the race second up is also a big plus. He’s run in the top two in six of his eight second up starts, including finishing 0.8L off Winx second up last prep. He’s had one start at Flemington, where he ran 2nd to Tosen Stardom in a Group 1 over 2000m. He’ll go back from the wide draw but he’s certainly a big chance today. (3) Humidor surprised people with his win in the Memsie Stakes a fortnight ago. He’s got a terrific third up record and has won two of his three starts at this track and distance, including this exact race last year. Draws barrier 1 again which might be a bit tricky. (6) Comin’ Through saluted in Group 2 company in Sydney first up and won over this track and distance as a three-year-old. Drawn to get the perfect run. (10) Kings Will Dream is absolutely flying and recorded what were clearly the best sectionals of the race in the Memsie Stakes. I think they’ll continue to take him back from the wide draws while he builds towards the Caulfield Cup. I’m going to take on (11) Kementari today, who is now fourth up at the mile. He won the Guineas over this trip in the Autumn but he’s got another awkward draw to deal with here and Happy Clapper had his measure when they met last prep. (12) Grunt is ready to do something today. He might still be looking for 2000m but getting back to Flemington is a huge plus for him. This was the scene of his victory in the Australian Guineas and third up today he should show what he’s really got.

TIP:

(1) Happy Clapper
$7.00

BET NOW AT Ladbrokes

Value: (12) Grunt $13 Ladbrokes

 

RACE 8

(3) Native Soldier ran them off their feet last start at Caulfield to record an impressive victory. Different scenario today down the Flemington straight but there’s a chance that race he won might be a bit stronger than what he comes up against today. Wide draw no problem down the straight. (11) Ocean Knight could be the value around $7.50. He wasn’t suited at all behind the talented Brutal at Moonee Valley last start, where backmarkers had absolutely no hope. He’ll sit behind what could be a hot speed up front and he has the ability to run over the top of them. (2) Marcel From Madrid was given no chance sitting wide without cover in that same race behind Brutal at the Valley. Lane keeps the ride and the wide barrier is no drama today. (7) Sanctimonius could be the blowout at $34.

TIP:

(3) Native Soldier
$3.40

BET NOW AT Pointsbet

Value: (11) Ocean Knight $7.50 BetEasy

 

RACE 9

Big field to end the day but (15) Furrion looks just about the best bet of the day. He looks to be a seriously talented horse on the rise and he comes up against a field of absolute plodders here. He’s won four of his five career starts and resumed with a dominant victory at Geelong. Should be able to sit closer to the speed from barrier 1 and providing he gets any luck whatsoever, he should be winning this. (2) Orderofthetiger first up in Australia is an interesting runner. First up last preparation in Ireland he won by 11L over the mile and followed that up with an easy win in Listed grade. The obvious query is he’s been off the scene for 61 weeks and the stable aren’t going particularly well. (6) Self Sense has been off for five weeks since running 2nd in the Grand National over 4200m. Drops back to 1700m here but he’s such a versatile horse and the blinkers go back on for the flat race today. Include in the quaddie. (10) Mr Garcia is third up and is the stablemate to the favourite and can go close.

 

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