Welcome to our Flemington preview and betting tips for this Saturday, May 16th, with talented young racing scribe Trent Crebbin taking the reins for BYB for the first time. The weather for Melbourne should be fine over the coming days with the track currently rated a soft 5 and the rail out two metres. Here's Trent's preview for and horse racing tips for every race on the card!
Flemington Racing Tips - Saturday, May 16th
Best Bet - Achernar Star (Race 8)
Next Best - Rupture (Race 7)
Value - Reserve Street (Race 4)
Race 1
A tricky sprint race for the girls to kick us off at HQ. (2) Goddodin is the favourite with 60kg and brings the best exposed form. I'm going to go for a bit of value in the form of (5) Atlantica at double figure odds. Regan Bayliss rode her last start to an easy win, and I prefer him on horses on speed as Atlantica will be. She likes soft ground, and her form around Newsgirl and Our Campana last preparation reads well. (8) Jamaican Hurry is flying, winning her last two before a let up. (10) Loolwah is a UK import having her first run in Australia. Danny O'Brien thinks she'll need the run which is enough to put me off at the odds. Having something on Atlantica at $10.
Race 2
Another straight course dash here, this time for the two year olds. The favourite is (3) Better Kick who's been well backed early after a string of good jumpouts. (9) Miss Bosetti was desperately unlucky on debut behind Riverina Storm, has had a break and won a jumpout nicely in the leadup to this race. She's drawn well here and should get every chance down the straight. (8) Divine Caprice and (1) Nantucket come out of the same race at Sandown on a heavy track. Divine Caprice loomed into the race but didn't let down in the heavy track, beaten 2.6L. Her win prior over 1000m was very good, and has run well down the straight on debut. (2) Ultimate Man is the best roughie in the race, running well after travelling wide on debut behind Surooj and with the straight track experience he seems a big price at $41. Tough race, but backing Miss Bosetti at $4.60, Divine Caprice at $14 and Ultimate Man at $41.
Value: (8) Divine Caprice ($14) & (2) Ultimate Man ($41)
Race 3
Race 3 is a 1600m event for the three year old fillies and (6) November Dreaming is the favourite coming back from a group two in Adelaide where she was beaten 4.6L as favourite. She got back in traffic that day, copped a check on the turn, and didn't show much. The start before that she was very impressive winning at Pakenham. I'm prepared to forgive the last start run to some degree. I think Flemington will suit her, as will getting Willo back on. There's a stack of other chances with (8) Librate holding the second line of betting. She was good in a three year old stakes race in Adelaide two back before starting $1.55 and just getting the job done last start at Ballarat. She'll roll forward for Oliver and be thereabouts. (2) Flandersrain will settle towards the rear but ran on well in a good race here last start. (14) Thee One finally got her maiden win last start in great style at Pakenham. Willo jumps off to stick with November Dreaming but Billy Egan and Danny O'Brien are both flying and she can go on with it here. Very open race again but November Dreaming on top at $4.20 and also backing Thee One at $10.
Value: (14) Thee One ($10)
(6) November Dreaming
$4.20
Race 4
(7) Duke of Plumpton was dominant on his Australian debut, and was very well backed last start before finishing 2nd behind Shot of Irish, who got a very easy lead on a heavy track, with Duke Of Plumpton the only one making any ground. Shot Of Irish has come out and won again since, and I'm happy to stick with the Duke for Billy Egan and Patrick Payne who are a hot combo. (13) Orelans Rock is the narrow favourite but will be back towards the inside and needing luck. (9) Sikorsky is the main danger, he looks to be building nicely this prep after running 2nd to Jumbo Ozaki last start. I think the best roughie of the race, and of the day for that matter, is (4) Reserve Street. He finished close up behind Jumbo Ozaki first up before starting a $2.20 favourite in the Warracknabeal Cup but failing behind Rupture, who has won again and is favourite for the Lexus Trophy later. If you respect that SP from last start and his prior form, he's a huge price at $41. Backing Duke Of Plumpton at $4.80 and Reserve Street (each way) at $41.
Value: (4) Reserve Street ($41)
(7) Duke Of Plumpton
$4.80
Race 5
Another straight race, this time for the seasoned sprinters over 1000m. The favourite is three year old (9) King Of Hastings who has jumped out well for his first up run. Although he clearly has the most upside I'll be taking him on today. The straight 1000m is a real niche sort of distance, and whilst a few of these horses have reached their limit, they are more suited to this race. I have (3) Milwaukee on top at $17. He was poor first up before running well behind Prezado and The Inevitable here last start. He has two wins from four starts when third up and flies down the straight. The winner of his last race (4) Prezado loves it here too, but can be hard to catch, as can (1) Malibu Style. (6) Wagner is the other horse that interests me at $15. He comes here under a new trainer and off a short spell. He races very well fresh, loves the 1000m and brings strong SP's in similar races. Stockdale's claim has been very handy recently and I think he's a great chance. Backing Milwaukee and Wagner.
Race 6
The feature of the day for the stayers with a guaranteed ticket into the Melbourne Cup for the winner. (2) King of Leogrance is the favourite coming off a dominant Adelaide Cup win at 3200m. Danny O'Brien will have kept him nice and fit after a short break to have him ready for this, and he's the clear horse to beat. (7) Too Close The Sun is a ripper- he makes his own luck on speed and always gives a good kick, making him tough to run down. He's rock hard fit after winning the Warnambool Cup last start, but up to 2800m in this class of race might stretch him. If King of Leogrance finds trouble he could be off and gone but at the prices I have to side with King Of Leogrance. I can't see anything else winning the race. (9) Dark Alley was good last start but that was a BM70 at Geelong and was beaten out of sight by King of Leogrance in the Adelaide Cup. (12) Oceanex is a solid mare but put King of Leogrance or Too Close The Sun in that Morphettville mares race I think they'd have won by five lengths. Backing King of Leogrance at $2.60. Too Close The Sun should be running top two for exotic players.
Race 7
(4) Rupture is the well-backed favourite here off the back of a dominant last start win. He was the only leader to win here three weeks ago and was very impressive. He's a very progressive horse who I expect to take a sit here from barrier three and win again. The early price is gone but I think he's close to an even money chance. The most interesting runner of the day is (11) Schabau. The German import was flying in the Autumn last year, winning all three starts and was touted as a leading Melbourne Cup chance before a tendon injury forced a year off. I think he looks a touch short at the current price due to the long layoff and the presence of Rupture, but if he stays firm in the market expect him to run very well over 2000m first up. (15) Dadoozdart is another import who was well backed on his Australian debut, starting favourite and finishing nearly 6L off Rupture. Up to 2000m and hopefully a more genuine tempo will help him, but he does have a margin to make up. Backing Rupture and saving on Dadoozdart at $10.
Race 8
(1) Achernar Star is the $4.40 favourite here coming off a 2nd to Buffalo River on a heavy track last start, and I'm keen he goes one better today. Formerly racing in WA, this horse has group one form all around him. Last preparation over a mile he finished 4th, beaten 1.1L by subsequent All Star Mile winner Regal Power. A repeat of that performance would see him win this. He can race handy, German rode him very well last start and will take 3kg off again and I think he's the best on the program at the odds. (11) Sirius Suspect will probably lead, he's an honest horse who will give a good kick. (16) Heptagon went very well first up in the Wangoom and has a great 2nd up record. (2) Iconoclasm will be up on speed and has the ability but I'm not sure how well he's going, while A Shin Rook was good winning first up in Adelaide. Keen on Achernar Star at $4.40 and will make Heptagon a small result at $15.
Value: (16) Heptagon ($15)
Race 9
Tough race to finish for the three year olds. The track will be key at this point. If you can make ground I think (3) Beehunter is the hardest to beat. Visually he was very impressive last start, but sectionally against the day his times didn't stack up. I put this down to the race being quite fast early, so he was forced to work harder early to stay with the field, before managing to make a sustained run down the outside. Olly going on is a huge positive, and he might try to be a bit more aggressive out the gates to settle off midfield. If that happens I think Beehunter goes close. (1) Final Man is flying and will be up on speed, but Olly rode him last start and probably had the choice. He probably prefers it a bit wetter too. (2) Broadwayandfourth is the danger. Her run behind Xilong and Garner in Adelaide last start was excellent, and I rate that formline highly. She's never been to 1400 but I think she'll get the trip and be finishing strongly. (4) Orienzel was very good last start and will be up on speed. If the track is playing leaderish he'll continue to firm. Tough race but leaning to Beehunter at $4.20 and saving on Broadwayandfourth at $6.
Saver: (2) Broadwayandfourth ($6)
