Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Blamey Stakes Day at Flemington on Saturday, March 17th.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail out 7m. The track was obviously a monorail on the rail last week but the rail moves out this week. In straight races, I suspect the outside rail will be the place to be.
If you haven’t already, make sure you listen to Episode 26 of the Before You Bet Podcast, where Tim previews the action from Rosehill and Flemington. He’s also joined by very special guest Zac Purton, who rides the favourite in Sunday’s G1 Hong Kong Derby! A must listen!
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 4 #2 Khulaasa
Best Value: Race 6 #6 Archery Peak
RACE 1
Looks a race in three and after a bit of further assessment I’m with (3) Quilista on top. She was good first up when just going down by a nose over 955m at the Valley, and then ran 8th in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate, beaten 2.35L by Russian Revolution. That’s obviously the far superior line for this race, and I’d much rather be backing Mark Zahra than Andrew Mallyon, who rides the favourite (4) Hear The Chant. Quilista also draws barrier 4, which is slightly better than barrier 2 for Hear The Chant with the way I suspect the straight races might play. Hear The Chant was a good winner first up for us but I think that form is just moderate. The big plus she’s got over Quilista is the fact she’s won twice down the Flemington straight. She’s got a good second up record so should be right in the finish. The value looks to be (7) Written Era and I’ll be having something on at $10. She’d probably appreciate a bit more juice in the track but she’s got a good first up record and a good record at the distance. She’s had three starts at the track without doing anything of note but those were over 1400m and not down the straight.
TIP: (3) Quilista / (7) Written Era EW
RACE 2
Interested in backing (3) Iconoclasm here at $4.40. Bolted in at Ararat two starts ago to win by 8L and then went to Adelaide last start and won again. Sometimes Weir runners lose a leg in Adelaide so to win like he did was a good effort and back in Melbourne, up to 1400m and on the big track at Flemington should see him right in this. (2) Scarecrow came out of a good form race behind Grunt two starts ago to win over this track and distance last start. Takes a hike in the weights to 59kg now but should get a good run from barrier 4. (4) Muraahib bounced back to form behind Scarecrow last start and was taking ground off but he’s an inconsistent horse. I think the value here is (11) Sheezdashing here, who has already been $34 into $19. Her run first up at Moonee Valley was terrific – she never got clear from about the 400m mark and went to the line under a grip. Second up and up to 1400m could see her competitive. (12) Tbilisi can also go well at odds but Sheezdashing would have gone straight past her if she got clear last start.
TIP: (3) Iconoclasm / (11) Sheezdashing EW
RACE 3
There’s a shortie here in (5) Demerara here after a dominant first up win at Moonee Valley. It may come back to bite me but I’m going to take her on here. Her only run down the Flemington straight was a 4th placing in the Spring behind Jorda, and based on that win at Moonee Valley she could bolt in again here, but there’s just a couple of others at longer odds that catch my eye. Jake Noonan taking over from Craig Williams isn’t exactly the best jockey change either. (2) Limestone opened up as the short-priced favourite first up at Moonee Valley but was a dramatic drifter in betting and ran accordingly. She pulled up lame after the race and makes her return here. We may see a similar thing in betting pre-race, in which case she may be cooked, but if she were anywhere near her best for this she would go very close to winning. We’re getting better odds today with $8 available and I’m giving her one more go. (4) Ploverset is first up here and represents good value at $13. She’s got a good first up record with a win and a 3rd, which was first up last preparation behind the smart Crown Witness. She ran twice down the Flemington straight in her debut campaign for a win and a 3rd placing behind Shoals. Draws wide here which I think is a plus, the stable is flying and so is the jockey Mark Zahra. Betting wise, I would probably equally stake three bets on Demerara, Limestone ad Ploverset, i.e. 1 unit on each (if Demerara wins you essentially get money back).
TIP: (2) Limestone EW / (4) Ploverset EW
RACE 4
(2) Khulaasa deserves favouritism here with the blinkers going on for the first time after a solid 2nd placing behind Prairie Fire last start, who then ran well in the Blue Diamond. She’s proven she can run well down the Flemington straight and that experience should hold her in good stead here. She goes on top of (3) Metronome, who produced an enormous effort last start at Moonee Valley when trapped three-wide the trip but still managed to win dominantly. If the outside fence is where they decide to go in straight races (watch early races), then she could be right there at the finish. (1) Krone went to Adelaide and won the Cinderella Stakes last start and returns to Melbourne here. Can be competitive for Weir.
TIP: (2) Khulaasa
RACE 5
The Group 2 Blamey Stakes with just five runners going around here. Match race between (1) Tosen Stardom and (2) Humidor here, who are both Group 1 winners over the distance. Humidor seems to grow a leg at Flemington, as shown by his win last preparation in the Makybe Diva Stakes when he bolted in to win by 3.25L. The difference on that day was the pace of the race though. They went a very solid tempo that day and Humidor was able to have the race set up for him from the back of the field, whereas he’s going to have to sit and sprint here in all likelihood. If that’s the case, I think Tosen Stardom will win, because he has the better turn of foot. He will appreciate getting up to 1600m now third up from a spell, and he has that extra run under the belt compared to Humidor who is only second up (though his second up record is very good).
TIP: (1) Tosen Stardom
RACE 6
Three horses I’m interested in here. Very keen to back (6) Archery Peak each way here at $16/$4.80. I was keen on this horse two starts ago at 50/1 when it ran 3rd at Caulfield over 2000m. Then went to Adelaide last start and was a notable drifter in betting and failed terribly. Back to Melbourne here, blinkers go back on, back to 2000m and on a big, spacious track. Drawn well and can give a good sight. His stablemate (12) Condamine won by 5L at Terang last start and gets Mark Zahra booked for the ride. He’s also drawn well and gets to 2000m for the first time this prep. (11) Big Pat’s Pontiac continues to run well having finished top two in his past four starts. Came from last over this track and distance last start and there’s no reason he can’t run well again. (3) Cullingworth and (4) He Excels with obvious claims.
TIP: (6) Archery Peak EW
RACE 7
(4) Nozomi won first up but I’ll be taking him on here given he’s had five starts when second up from a spell and has never placed. (8) Theanswermyfriend trialled particularly well leading into this and although he’s never won first up, he did run very well in 2nd first up last prep over 1100m. He’s first up at 1400m here and his record over this track and distance is excellent. Should go forward from barrier 9 and will be hard to beat at $4.60. (12) Overshare put a win on the board last start after running 2nd to Cliff’s Edge two starts ago. That form has already been franked and from barrier 1 here he will get a great run just behind the leaders. (7) Mask Of Time has only had one start in Australia which was a 4th behind Tosen Stardom, beaten 2.2L. Not many of these horses would get within 2.2L of Tosen Stardom so despite this being short of his best distance, he looks a chance at $14. (6) Kenjorwood is a blowout chance at $41 third up from a spell and it wouldn’t shock to see (3) Kiwia competitive. (9) Coldstone another to include. Worth playing a trifecta here 8, 12, 7 / 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12 / 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12.
TIP: (8) Theanswermyfriend / (7) Mask Of Time EW
RACE 8
Sticking with (2) Portman here who I was on last week but he had absolutely no hope. He went forward from a wide barrier, couldn’t slot in, went back, still couldn’t slot in and was caught wide without cover the entire race. He came about seven wide on the turn and as we know, the rail last week proved to be a road, so he ended up in the worst part of the track. If he hasn’t taken too much harm out of that race and can handle the one-week back-up, he will be very competitive in a race like this. He draws much better in barrier 1 and the 2kg claim for Fred Kersley is important. $5.50 is a good price because this is an easier race than he was in last week. Backing him each way and could save on (3) Top Of The Range, who was dominant last start at Caulfield and looks the danger. (7) Balcazar won last start and was competitive in a Saturday grade race at this track and distance last prep. Could be the value at double figure odds.
TIP: (2) Portman EW
RACE 9
Tough race to finish off with. I’ll give one more chance to (4) Handsome Thief here, mainly because I’m struggling to find anything that stands out. He comes out of a strong race last start where the first two horses then went on to run in the Oakleigh Plate, and if the inside of the track is as good as it was last week, or at least fair, then he can be a strong winning chance at $5. The value could be (10) Sacred Sham who has been in super form recently. He really should have won three races on the bounce but he was luckless two starts at the Valley. Atoned for that with a good win last start and the draw could help him here. Has failed previously down the straight but he wasn’t going this good at the time. (15) Steel Of Madrid rises in grade but he’s absolutely flying and should be included at double figure odds. (14) Electric Charlie, (2) Blue Tycoon and (1) Milwaukee have claims.
TIP: (4) Handsome Thief / (10) Sacred Sham
QUADDIE
3, 4, 6, 7, 11, 12
3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12
2, 3, 5, 7
1, 2, 4, 10, 14, 15
$100 = 11.57%
