Flemington Racing Tips for Saturday January 28th

Back to Flemington this weekend for a 9 race program which features the Listed Kensington Stakes for the sprinters.

The track is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail out 6m and we have betting tips for every race on the program below!

Flemington Racing Tips - Saturday January 28th

Race 1

JENNIFER LYNN is clearly the best horse in the race here but her best was over 1400m last prep and she was well beaten on debut over 1100m. She's won at Flemington before but the 1100m is a different ball game, and although she has a clear class edge, I'm not willing to jump in at the prices first up over the sprint distance. I'd rather be taking the $5 for WRITE DA SCRIPT who won quite impressively on debut, albeit on a Heavy track in an Ararat maiden. She looks to have ability and Maher wouldn't bring her straight to town if he didn't think she was up to it. NAVAGIO and HAAFRA HEAD the value.

Tip: Write Da Script

Race 2

Diamond Baroness has been backed off the map early in betting ($5.50 into $3.00) and deserves to be favourite on the back of a dominant win at Pakenham last start. With the 2kg claim she gets in well here and can certainly win, but I'm just not convinced how strong the form out of the race was and at $3 I'm prepared to take her on from the wide barrier. I think NEW SUMMER NIGHTS represents a decent each way betting option with a positive jockey change. Callan Murray is off and the red hot Regan Bayliss jumps on. Last start she was held up early in the straight before cutting back to the inside and flashing home to finish 2nd behind Deja Blue. She will get back in the field but hopefully Bayliss can get moving at the right time and I'd rather be on her at $6.50. 

Tip: New Summer Nights

Race 3

I've got this clearly between OAK DOOR and WIDGEE TURF, with a slight preference for the latter. Both met last start over this track and distance where Oak Door got the upper hand and beat Widgee Turf by 0.75L. Widgee Turf gets a 2kg weight swing today which may be enough to turn the tables. Expect Oak Door to slide across from the widest barrier and take up the lead, while Widgee Turf will start from barrier 4 and should settle midfield. At the prices we can back Widgee Turf ($3.00) and saver Oak Door ($4.50).

Tip: Widgee Turf

Race 4

The top two in the market look to have this between them. PORTMAN is low flying and gets in with the featherweight of 52.5kg after the claim and up in grade. He put together two wins to start the prep before bumping into Snitzson who I think is on his way to being a very good horse. Up to 1600m for the first time but down 6kg in weight from his last run and from barrier 10 we can expect Allen to slide across to sit on the speed. If he's not your winner then I think HOKKAIDO could be. His first up run put the writing on the wall but then he endured a torrid trip last week when wide without cover in a strong race. Barrier 5 should see him get a great run and his previous form when third up from a spell suggests he is ready to win today. Locking in $2.70 about Portman and can save on Hokkaido at the $7.

Tip: Portman (Best Bet)

Race 5

This is a cracking race and one with a number of chances with 6 of these runners finishing within 0.6L of each other last start. And Flying Light was favourite on that occasion and dropped out to finish second last after pulling up with thumps, heat stress and lameness. I've narrowed it down to 2 runners here which are CHANCE TO DANCE and GOLDSTREAM. Chance To Dance looks ready to win today at his third run back from a spell. After the claim he comes down to 54.5kg so drops a kilo from last start, and draws to get all the favours in the run. GOLDSTREAM flashed home to finish 3rd by a nose in the same race and that put the writing on the wall. Weir has a knack of getting these horses ready to win once they are fit and this horse also drops a kilo from that run. At $6 and $8 respectively I think we can back both to win here. The value looks to be KOURKAM who actually won that race last start and although he's slightly worse off at the weights, $12 looks a big price. FLYING LIGHT beat Kourkam two starts ago and had numerous excuses so if he returns to his best there's no reason he can't win. 

Tip: Chance To Dance / Goldstream

Race 6

Big field and a few coming into this first up from a spell which makes it difficult to assess but I'm pretty keen on BARTHELONA here and I think we're getting a great price at $6. He finished 2nd first up under the big weight and gets in much better at the weights here with 57kg. That run gave him exposure to the Flemington straight and with that experience on his side he has an advantage over plenty of these which haven't raced down the straight before. He draws in barrier 10 which is a good draw and if he's taken improvement out of last start then I see him being hard to beat here. One of the interesting runners is IF NOT NOW WHEN who looked to be a pretty talented horse after two wins to start her career before failing in Stakes company in Adelaide. She returned with a respectable midfield finish first up where she peaked on her run which was to be expected after a 266 day break. Fitter here and drawn well out wide, she's worth an each way bet at $14.

Tip: Barthelona / If Not Now When EW

Race 7

This looks a nice race for the favourite HELLBENT who only needs to bring his best form to win this. He has 3 wins from 4 runs when first up from a spell and beat the likes of Demonstrate and Sheidel last prep before bumping into Redzel and Terravista. If he's ready to go he should be winning. The huge watch and the biggest unknown in the race is EL DIVINO who makes his debut for Darren Weir after moving from Gai Waterhouse. We don't know what condition Gai left him in and how much she flogged him but Weir has a history of taking horses to the next level, and given this horse has a Group 3 win over Astern on his record it wouldn't surprise me to see him come out and bolt in here. LITTLE INDIAN is going really well and while this is a big step up in grade the $26 looks a bit of value.

Tip: Hellbent

Race 8

Two I like here. DUIBIO is the obvious choice first up from a spell. He was flying before the spell and won a race in this grade at Ballarat over this distance. He's only been off the track for 70 days so should still be fairly fit and he looks hard to beat. BRADMAN got the job done for us at great odds last start and there's no reason he can't go on with it here. He has had limited success at Flemington but his last two starts suggests he's right in form now and at $13 he looks slightly over the odds to me.

Tip: Duibio / Bradman EW (Best Value)

Race 9

Relatively tough race to finish the day and the bookies friend Battlecamp comes up favourite after being completely luckless last start. He's got the talent but I simply can't back him. Prepared to give HIPPARCHUS another chance after his eye catching run last start at the Valley. Up to the 1800m looks like it will suit and he did place here over 2000m during the Carnival so if he reproduces that run he should go close to winning this. The danger could be GERVAIS who beat a very smart one last start in Crocodile Rock. Up in grade here but down significantly in the weights and he could run a good race again.

Tip: Hipparchus