Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Caulfield Cup day at Caulfield on Saturday, October 20th.
We’re in for an outstanding day of racing with every race on the card bar one run at blacktype level. The $5million Caulfield Cup is the feature race of the day and comes up in Race 8.
The track is rated a Good 4 and the rail will be in the 6m position. Check out our comprehensive preview with betting tips for every race below!
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 10 #5 Peaceful State / #8 Mr Sneaky
Best Value Bet: Race 9 #8 Bella Martini
RACE 1
Nice race to kick things off and I’m pretty keen on this Weir favourite #9 Delusions. This filly bolted in on debut at Swan Hill to win by 3.8L and ran the fastest final 400m and 200m of the entire meeting in doing so. That was after sitting three-wide without cover for the whole race too. Not bad for a first-starter. These types of Weir horses always improve when they come to town on the back of wins like that and she’s drawn a plum barrier in 4. Looks hard to beat at $3.70. #2 Zizzis ($8.50) is a filly I’ve been on both starts this prep and I’m reluctant to drop off just yet. She’s been back to the trials since her last start and Craig Williams jumps aboard today. Drawn a touch awkwardly but with a soft run I think she can be very competitive. #3 Euwase ($6.00) is also third up into this and the Snowden stable will have her peaking for this race. She hasn’t shown a great deal in her first two runs but they were in much harder races than this and she’s at the right stage of her prep to show her best now. I’d be playing those three with Delusions as the best result.
RACE 2
Going with the speed map here and tipping #3 Yulong January, who looks the natural leader in the race. He was utterly dominant in his first two career starts and followed that with another convincing win in Sydney two weeks ago. If he an find the front and get a couple of cheap sectionals, they’ll struggle to run him down. #4 Ranier was the best thing beat this century last time out. I have grave concerns once again today with his racing pattern and barrier draw. He’s likely to be strung up in a bit of traffic from barrier 3 and with Winx on the horizon, is Bowman really going to push his way out? If he finds traffic and Yulong January is going well out the front, he might leave it too late. Weir’s two runners #6 Ringerdingding and #12 Kaplumpich both have claims, the latter at huge odds.
Value: Ringerdingding $8.00 Unibet
RACE 3
Terrific race and the speed looks to be red hot here! We’ve got about five runners that like to lead or at least sit prominently, so there could be fireworks early. That might set it up for something like #3 Bons Away who should camp just off the speed from barrier 4 and be there to pounce in the straight. All of his career wins have come over 1200m so the 1000m is some query, but he went close last start, is third up now, gets Kerrin McEvoy on board and should relish the tempo. #4 Spending To Win did a good job to win first up and has had four weeks off since then. He’s likely to roll forward from barrier 7 but does risk being caught wide. Gets in similarly at the weights to what he did first up and looks a good chance again at each way odds. The best value looks to be #8 Miss Leonidas who should improve from her good effort behind Grey Shadow first up. She drops to 53kg here and has shown in the past the ability to lead or come from back in the field. Barrier 1 might not be ideal but at $9.00 she’s worth having something on. #7 She Knows is another that will relish the strong tempo out front. She’ll sit back and have the last crack at them and certainly isn’t hopeless at double figure odds. #6 Eduardo has been running terrific in races beyond his rating. He’d be close enough to top pick if there wasn’t such a hot tempo predicted in the race.
Value: #8 Miss Leonidas $8.50 Bet365
RACE 4
Competitive race and not overly keen to get too heavily involved. Interested in the two Godolphin fillies most. #1 Jorda has had two runs back from a spell now and she didn’t get a whole lot of room behind #4 Grey Shadow last start. She was back near last on the rail and then had a chequered path on the inside but still clocked the best 400-200m split in the race. She’s heading in the right direction and draws better today in barrier 5 with Damian Lane retaining the ride. Stablemate #5 Soothing started near enough to favourite in that race last start but drew barrier 11 and failed to make much of an impression. Her final sectionals were close to that of the winner Grey Shadow and from barrier 4 she has the opportunity to be a touch closer with a better run today. She also gets a 4.5kg weight swing on Grey Shadow and a 3kg swing on Jorda. Grey Shadow is undefeated at the distance and undefeated in both starts at Caulfield. As mentioned, goes up in weight today but draws barrier 1 and should get a soft run. No reason she can’t go close again. #8 From Within has posted three straight wins in Queensland and should go straight to the front. This is a harder race than what she’s been beating up on. #12 Working From Home the blowout.
Value: #1 Jorda $11 Unibet
RACE 5
Looks a really nice race for the Weir-trained #6 Verry Elleegant, who hit the line well on her Australian debut behind subsequent G1 Thousand Guineas winner Amphitrite. Straight up to 2000m now which looks suitable and from barrier 2 should get a very easy run in the race. #2 Greysful Glamour should go straight to the front and be the one they all have to run down. She did exactly that when bolting in by 3.25L at Flemington last start. #3 Aristia was held up the entire straight in the same race as Verry Elleegant last start and as mentioned, the form out of that race has proved very strong. Aristia started a $6.50 chance in that race but never saw daylight so shouldn’t be discounted here. Barrier 1 slightly tricky for her. #9 Dark Confidant is a blowout chance at $26. She ran the fastest 600-400m split last start, then copped a check at the 400m and then ran a solid last 200m. Going to be coming from a long way back but one to throw in numbers.
RACE 6
With Weir again here who has the favourite #3 Extra Brut, who he listed as his best winning chance of the day. Easy to see why – the horse has recorded three straight wins and was pretty comfortable in taking out the UCI Stakes at Flemington last start. He saluted at Caulfield two starts ago so has form on the board at the track and will enjoy a great run from barrier 3 today. Hard to hold out. #1 Thinkin’ Big didn’t get a lot of luck in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney last start, which he started favourite in. Prior to that he bolted in over 1800m in the Gloaming Stakes. Expect him to roll forward from the wide barrier and take some catching. #5 Visao is a knockout hope at $31. He was a solid winner over 1800m at Flemington three starts back before a luckless run when back in trip at Moonee Valley. Didn’t have anything go right in the Spring Champion Stakes last start. Back to Melbourne, drawn well and Lane on. #12 Chapada was a dominant winner last start and jumps straight to 2000m for a stable that knows how to win these staying races.
RACE 7
Three main runners I’m focused on here and I found it hard to split them. #3 Trap For Fools as huge behind Winx last start and from barrier 1 he will pop straight to the front and take plenty of running down with the rail out 6m. If you put a line through his run at the Valley two starts ago, where he was butchered, his form looks very good for a race like this and he’s got a great platform with five 2000m races under his belt. The tongue tie goes on for the first time. #7 Best Of Days looks the one to run him down after clearly recording the best sectionals of the race behind Furrion last start and I think that’s a very solid form line to follow. They cleared out from the 3rd horse last start which is a good sign and from the ideal draw in barrier 5 he appears hard to beat. Wouldn’t rule out Chris Waller’s #4 Life Less Ordinary at $7.00, who might be the value in the race. He’s had two runs back from a spell, including a 4th behind Furrion and Best Of Days last start, and holds a good third up record. That includes a dominant win over 1800m at Flemington third up last preparation and if he reproduces that he’ll be right in the finish. Zac Purton picks up the ride which is a big plus. #11 Mahamedeis was a big winner for us last start at Moonee Valley and is somewhat the fresh kid on the block. Third up, down in weight and up to 2000m looks ideal.
Value: #4 Life Less Ordinary $7.00 BetEasy
RACE 8 - GROUP 1 CAULFIELD CUP
CHECK OUT OUR COMPREHENSIVE RUNNER-BY-RUNNER PREVIEW OF THE GROUP 1 CAULFIELD CUP HERE!
RACE 9
Probably the toughest race on the card with about eight winning chances. #8 Bella Martini is one of those. Completely forget she went around last start behind Invincibella, when she was trapped wide without cover the entire race. Her form before that included a 0.1L defeat to I Am A Star and a 1.7L defeat to Osbourne Bulls and Land Of Plenty. That’s some seriously strong form. If she gets an easier run today she could be in this up to her ears at double figure odds. #9 Ellicazoom hasn’t put a foot wrong for her new trainers, winning first up and then a 0.5L defeat to Winter Bride last start. Winter Bride has since gone and won again. From barrier 5 Ellicazoom should get a good run and she’s another at double figure odds that looks a solid chance. #3 Invincibella was dominant in winning at Flemington last start and arguably could be undefeated this preparation but for a luckless second up run. She’s flying and draws well. #11 Savatiano started favourite in that race won by Invincibella but it was a horror watch. She was held up for the majority of the straight before charging home when it was all over. #5 Bring Me Roses is a blowout hope at huge odds. Second up last prep she ran enormous in G1 company. Chances don’t end there.
Also backing: #9 Ellicazoom $10 UBET
RACE 10
Two that really stand out here. #5 Peaceful State is ready now third up from a spell. He was great first up behind Land Of Plenty before having no luck in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. The form out of that race is strong with Land Of Plenty winning a G1 at his next start and I’d be surprised if he Land Of Plenty didn’t go close. #8 Mr Sneaky also ran in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last start, where he finished 6th beaten 2L. He recorded the fastest 400-200m split and the second fastest final 200m. The fastest was Osbourne Bulls who backed that up with a 3rd placing in The Everest. Big jockey change today with James McDonald taking over from Jye McNeil. The only concern is its been a fair while between drinks for Mr Sneaky. #6 Dreamforce much better suited at 1400m around a bend today. Backing both 5 and 8.
Also backing: #8 Mr Sneaky $5.00 BetEasy
