The 2022 Australian Open kicks off on Monday, the 17th of January and with the extended build up due to the Novak Djokovic drama, excitement for the tournament is at fever pitch! Check out our full preview and outright betting tips for the tournament courtesy of Ace below!
Australian Open Betting Tips
Believe it or not, the tennis aspect of the Australian Open main draw gets underway on Monday, although there is still great uncertainty around the dynamics of the draw given the ongoing court appeals around Novak Djokovic. With that uncertainty at the top of the market in full flight at the moment, I don’t see there being any great value in the prices on Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev.
Why? Well there are some relative unknowns at play. Djokovic, if he plays, will have only had a day or two on court. Whilst his early draw may allow him to play his way into form, it still is an unprecedented lead-up. Medvedev is now south of $3 and there doesn’t appear to be a lot of value in that price, even with a semi-decent draw early in the tournament. Zverev is also now south of $3. He showed late in 2021 that he can match it with the likes of Medvedev and Djokovic over best-of-3 set tennis, he is yet to prove is over the longer format. His draw is sound, but I just cannot see value in the current price. If value arises after we have some more clarity around the status of Djokovic, I will be sure to add to the current selections across the tournament.
For now, I have looked further down the line to find some nice value spots in the draw for different outright options in both the full tournament and quarter winner markets.
Jannik Sinner – finds himself in the weakest quarter of the draw in my opinion, with the two top 8 seeds being Casper Ruud and the less-than-100% Stefanos Tsitsipas. We haven’t had a chance to see him excel at the Australian Open, as he cramped backing up from his title winning performance less than 48 hours before his first round match with Denis Shapovalov last year, and he looks set for a long stay in Melbourne looking at the draw. The worst case scenario for him is a 3rd round with Andy Murray, a 4th round with Casper Ruud and a ¼ final with Stefanos Tsitsipas, although they may not all occur anyway for various reasons. I like him to win the quarter, but it is also worth a splash on him in the outright market as well.
Gael Monfils - Now, this is worth a play in his current spot in the market, however you could also make a case that his odds improve significantly if Novak Djokovic is removed from the draw and he drops into the Andrey Rublev spot in the draw as well. Off the perfect preparation of winning a title and then retiring early in the action last week to save himself for the grand slam. The cooler weather conditions forecast for the early part of the tournament lead him to being less likely to encounter trouble early in the tournament, and he has the game that, when ‘on’, can trouble most on tour. Fitness and consistent application are the big question marks, but at $350 there are allowed to be question marks.
Carlos Alcaraz - It would be great if Djokovic was removed from the top quarter and Monfils moved down to the Rublev spot in the draw, however if not, there is still a touch of value in his price. He was starting to be a little more selective late in 2021, and his US Open run was indeed impressive. Got the mix of court coverage, power and ability to handle to big stage to be worth considering here. Looks good value in the outright, and to reach the final.
Denis Shapovalov: Built his way into form across the ATP Cup after having to isolate on arrival in Sydney. Whilst there is a huge gulf between his best and worst level, he, and to a lesser extent Hubert Hurkacz, look to be value to win the 2nd quarter here.
Other names that caught my eye were: Hubert Hurkacz, Roberto-Bautista Agut and even Taylor Fritz, however Shapovalov is better value than Hurkacz at present, and RBA and Fritz are too close to each other in the draw as well.
Here is the list of bet suggestions for now in the futures markets.
0.5 units Jannik Sinner to win outright at $60 at Betfair
1 unit Jannik Sinner to win the 3rd quarter at $3.75 at Bet365
0.25 units Carlos Alcaraz to win outright at $80 at Betfair
0.25 units Carlos Alcaraz to reach the final at $21 at Bet365
0.25 Gael Monfils to win outright at $350 at Betfair
0.25 units Gael Monfils to reach the final at $67 at Bet365
0.4 units Denis Shapovalov to win the 3rd quarter at $13 at Bet365
What a fascinating draw we have in the women’s draw, with the top two favourites drawing into the same eighth of the draw in Ash Barty and Naomi Osaka. The US Open shock of Emma Raducanu running through the draw as a qualifier without dropping a set just shows how even the women’s draw over the best-of-3 set format is at grand slam level, and the betting markets reflect that as well. Gone are the days of Serena Williams commanding the market and trying to pick around her spot in the draw for bits and pieces of value. Players are coming in with a number of different paths to Melbourne Park, and there are a couple of players that have come up as value after the draw.
Ash Barty – Winning form is good form, and with the change in scheduling late in the tournament now putting the semi final as a night session on the second Thursday, this leads to Ash Barty playing in comfortable conditions for the majority of this tournament. There is a lot of talk around a potential 4th round meeting with Osaka, however Dayana Yastremska and especially Amanda Anisimova are big chances of knocking off the defending champion here in week one. Looked great in Adelaide and hard to oppose coming in with a week rest. Deserving favourite.
Victoria Azarenka – We didn’t get to see the best from Azarenka here a year ago, losing to Jessica Pegula after struggling with the constraints of quarantine last year. A couple of solid wins in Adelaide 1, including against Paula Badosa, before losing in 3 sets to Iga Swiatek. Finds herself in a pocket of the draw where she shouldn’t be too overpowered in week one, and presents as great value to win the quarter, and the outright, if she can stay fit.
Elena Rybakina – Made the Adelaide final (lost to Barty), destroyed Raducanu in Sydney and made the call to head to Melbourne. The form is incredibly sound, and looks to be the player to beat in the third quarter for mine. Was found wanting late in the tournament at Roland Garros when more of the focus ended on her as one of the tournament favourites. Most matches she plays will be on her racquet, and I would fancy her chances in worst case 4th round with Anett Kontaveit and quarter final with Garbine Muguruza.
Iga Swiatek – Looks to have the most favourable draw of the top chances in my opinion. Finds herself in the other half to Barty/Osaka, and other quarter to Muguruza/Rybakina. Likely able to dictate in all her first week matches (unless Petra Kvitova regains some form and makes the fourth round), and sharing the quarter with the out-of-form and low on confidence Aryna Sabalenka. I will take Swiatek in the outright market as well as the quarter winner. Another in the 4th quarter at longer odds I am happy to consider is Ann Li for a small staking too given her form and comfort level in the conditions at Melbourne Park.
1 unit Ash Barty to win outright at $4.20 at Betfair
0.3 units Victoria Azarenka to win 2nd quarter at $7.50 at Bet365
0.2 units Victoria Azarenka to win outright at $36 at Betfair
0.25 units Elena Rybakina to win outright at $26 at Betfair
0.5 units Elena Rybakina to win 3rd quarter at $6 at Bet365
0.5 units Iga Swiatek to win 4th quarter at $3.80 at Topsport
0.1 units Ann Li to win outright at $360 at Betfair
0.1 units Ann Li to win quarter at $31 at Topsport