Check out Episode 8 of the BeforeYouBet Podcast where TimsTips breaks down the Melbourne Cup at length and talks about the day's racing at Flemington in the player below!
The $6million Emirates Melbourne Cup is like Christmas Day for horse racing fans, and it’s finally upon us. There’s 23 runners remaining in ‘The Race That Stops A Nation’, and our comprehensive, runner-by-runner preview of the race is below!
TRACK CONDITIONS
It was relieving to see the Flemington track play so outstandingly on the opening day of the carnival this past Saturday (Derby Day). We had horses lead and win, come from back in the field, win hard up against the rail and, as displayed in the final race, wide out in the middle of the track. The rail remains in the True position for Tuesday’s meeting. I think we’ll see the track play very similarly to what we saw on Derby Day. If anything, by Race 7 on the day we may see the rail start to chop up a bit. If that’s the case, we could see more runners win out wider on the course. In any case, we will have a good indication of how the track is playing come 12pm Tuesday.
TEMPO & SPEED MAP
As we saw in the Caulfield Cup two weeks ago, multiple Lloyd Williams runners in the same race generally means one of them will be used as the sacrificial bunny that ensures the race is run at a nice tempo for its more favoured stablemates. Williams has six runners in this year’s Melbourne Cup, and I think Gallante will be the one he sends to the front from barrier 18. He will have company though, with the Lexus Stakes winner Cismontaine leading all the way to win just days ago. They’ll ensure a true tempo will be set, but don’t be surprised to see a mid-race anchor drop attempted. Whether the Williams stable allow that to happen is another issue, but overall I doubt we’ll see this run at the farcical tempo of 2015 when they absolutely crawled and Prince Of Penzance caused a boilover. There’s a few runners that are hard to position on the speedmap, namely Tiberian, US Army Ranger and Marmelo. All three have shown versatility, in that they are capable of settling in forward positions as well as being held up off the pace. I think we’ll see US Army Ranger sent forward from barrier 22, but I doubt Tiberian will do the same given this is his first run in Australia. Marmelo was ridden conservatively in the Caulfield Cup and finished off nicely, so from barrier 16 I suspect they’ll once again ride him for cover toward the back of midfield. Here is how I see the speed map:
2017 MELBOURNE CUP RUNNERS
Hartnell: Returned in good order this campaign, with a dominant first up win over 1400m followed by consecutive placings in the Makybe Diva Stakes and Underwood Stakes. I thought his last run was particularly poor, and despite the stable saying he’s been racing and training like a two-miler, this definitely wasn’t their original plan for the horse. Expect to see him ridden just forward of midfield, possibly in a three-wide line. He was comfortably beaten by Almandin last year, is now a year older, and with the burden of topweight this year, I struggle to see him running a place. I’d suggest he’s a top 10 chance, but I’d be amazed if he won.
Almandin: There’s a very realistic chance this horse wins back-to-back Melbourne Cups. Things suddenly clicked for him last preparation, and he ended his campaign with three consecutive wins, the last of those obviously being the 2016 Melbourne Cup. From the moment he won that, the stable decided they wanted to have a genuine crack at making it back-to-back Cups with this horse, and his whole year has been tailored at having him spot on for this race. He had the entire Autumn off before returning at the end of August with an impressive 2nd placing over 2040m at Moonee Valley. What he produced three weeks after that was freakish, coasting home to win over 2500m at this track by nearly three lengths, under a stranglehold! Obviously, the stable realised the horse was absolutely flying but still had two months until his grand final, so I suspect they eased off him a touch, which explains his flat performance last time we saw him. We can guarantee that he’ll be right at his peak for the Melbourne Cup, and the scary thing is, Nick Williams said last year he wasn’t the fully furnished article, but now he is. The negative for him is that he’s now an eight-year-old, and only two eight-year-olds have ever won the Cup. But to counter that, there’s the argument that he’s only had 15 race starts, so he’s been very well looked after. Obviously he’s up 4.5kg from his win last year, but his win two starts ago was with 61kg, so he handles the weight. The Melbourne Cup has so far eluded Frankie Dettori, with plenty saying his booking was a negative. I’m of the opposite opinion – this jockey is in arguably career-best form with nine Group 1 wins this year, and as we saw two years ago, he’ll do anything to win the race, even if it means taking out half the field. Red hot chance.
Humidor: Ran the race of his life last start behind Winx in the Cox Plate, but he was aided by a terrific run and ride from Blake Shinn. Prior to that he was ridden upside down when finishing 5th in the Caulfield Cup, where he failed to finish with after the brutal tempo. They dropped him back in trip, applied the blinkers and rode him much quieter in the Cox Plate, which saw him return to his best. He now tackles 3200m for the first time in his career, which I think is a query, especially with this being his third race in three weeks. The 2000m up to 2400m, back to 2000m and now up to 3200m isn’t the ideal prep for your first run over 3200m, so those are my queries. If he does stay the trip, he must rate as a good chance because his turn of foot is probably one of the best in the race. He goes well at this track and jockey Blake Shinn is in outstanding form. 56kg is a big ask for his first run at the distance, and with the queries over his ability at the distance, I have to take him on here.
Tiberian: French six-year-old that’s had six wins and four 2nds in 17 career starts. He’s won four of his past five races, with his only defeat coming in Group 1 company. His last start was a Group 2 win over 2500m back in August, earning him an international Timeform rating of 119. He’s had three starts over 3000m-3100m in his career, for a win, a 2nd (behind three-time Group 1 winner Vazirabad) and an unplaced finish on heavy ground, which he was spelled immediately after. Additionally, the horse he beat twice earlier this year – Talismanic – came out and won a big race in America on the weekend, and Talismanic beat Marmelo in a different race, so the form ties in nicely. The horse was purchased by Australian Thoroughbred Bloodstock as their Melbourne Cup horse, and they certainly know which horses to look for, as they were represented by last year’s runner up Heartbreak City. This horse is a bit classier than Heartbreak City, and coincidentally, draws the same barrier in 23. Heartbreak City was aided by an absolutely masterful ride from Joao Moreira last year, and it will take something incredible for Olivier Peslier to win from there 23 this year, but he himself has won 75 Group 1’s and at least had the opportunity to have a ride on Derby Day. I think this is a horse that must be included at $34. He profiles well – similarly to Americain, in fact – but he’s got a big task to win his first Australian run with 55.5kg.
Marmelo: I said before the Caulfield Cup that this horse would be Melbourne Cup favourite after the race, and as soon as he was I was keen to take him on. But I’ve done some pretty deep study of this race and I just keep coming back to him. He just profiles so beautifully to run a huge race here. He’s a lightly-raced five-year-old, with proven ability at the distance, very solid European form, and the all-important lead up run in Australia before tackling the Melbourne Cup. That lead up run was the Caulfield Cup, where he finished off eye-catchingly from the rear of the field over a distance short of his best. He was one of the only horses to make ground out wide that day, and he was always going to be better suited stepping up to 3200m. He’s won twice over 3000m, including the Group 2 Prix Kergolay. The Prix Kergolay is an outstanding form race for the Melbourne Cup, with Americain (2010) and Protectionist (2014) both winning that race before going on to win the Melbourne Cup. Dunaden (2011) also came through the Prix Kergolay on his way to winning the 2011 Melbourne Cup. The horse Marmelo beat went on to win a Group 2 at its next start, and Christophe Soumillon, who rode Marmelo to victory, said post-race that he could go on to win a very big race. On that occasion, he was ridden to lead and kick away, but from barrier 16 I doubt they’ll follow that path. The only query I have are whether he has the turn of foot required to win, but he profiles tremendously well overall.
Red Cardinal: This six-year-old is from the same stable as 2014 Cup winner Protectionist, and profiles similarly, albeit a year older than Protectionist was. He’s had 10 starts for five wins and four placings; when Protectionist tackled the Cup he’d had nine starts for four wins and four placings. He’s undefeated at this distance, with two wins from as many starts, including success at Group 2 level, while he’s Group 1 placed over 2400m. Back in June he defeated the likes of Wall of Fire and Wicklow Brave over 3200m in America, and the last time we saw him he finished 5th behind Marmelo in the Prix Kergolay. I’ve already noted how good a form race the Prix Kergolay is for the Melbourne Cup (see Marmelo’s write-up) and the race certainly wasn’t run to suit Red Cardinal that day. He settled at the back of the field, and with the race run to suit the frontrunners, he was never likely to make up the ground. He comes into this fresh from a 10-week break which means he’ll obviously have to overcome to hoodoo of international runners going first up into the Cup, but he did win first up over 3200m off a 33-week break so he races well fresh. The huge negative for him is barrier 24, but barriers are becoming less of a focus point for me in this race, especially with last year’s quinella starting from barriers 17 and 23. Kerrin McEvoy is Australia’s best rider as of this moment, and a particularly good rider of stayers. Definitely worth including Red Cardinal at $23; I’ve got him as a leading chance.
Johannes Vermeer: Another one for Team Williams here, and possibly going in slightly under the radar. This is another horse that profiles relatively handsomely, with two lead up runs in Australia under his belt. First up, he charged home from the back of the field to be beaten a nose by Gailo Chop in the Caulfield Stakes, before running a luckless 3rd in the Caulfield Cup two weeks ago. His Caulfield Stakes run earned him a Timeform rating of 122. He’s a lightly-raced five-year-old with 14 starts, for four wins and seven placings, and comes into this third up and in great form. Probably the only query with this horse is whether he can run the trip. It’s his first go beyond 2400m, let alone over 3200m, and that’s the biggest box you need to tick to win the Melbourne Cup. There’s plenty of good 2400m horses that can’t run 3200m. With that said, he will get a fantastic run in the race from barrier 3 and should be able to sit a pair or two closer in the run than he did in the Caulfield Cup – I’d expect him to be in the first half-a-dozen. Outside of that question mark over the distance, he profiles extremely well as a lightly-raced five-year-old with a winnable weight, good European form and two good lead up runs in Australia. Interestingly, Nick Williams noted that outside of Almandin, this horse was working particularly well. I’ve got him in my top six, but the query over the distance means I can’t have him on top.
Bondi Beach: Another one of the Team Williams brigade here, but it must be said that this horse has been very disappointing in every Australian start he’s had. This will be his third crack at the Melbourne Cup, with his best effort being last year’s 10th placing behind Almandin. Like his stablemate, he’s had just the two runs since then, finishing 9th of 10 and 11th of 13. He comes into this third up off a 52-day break, with the blinkers applied for the first time, and draws barrier 1. From that gate, I’d expect to see him in the first half of the field. Nick Williams has been pretty vocal in saying how pleased the stable are with this horse this time around, and you almost have to overlook lead up runs of horses from this stable because they are very much a ‘grand final’ stable. However, he’s done nothing in any of his starts here to suggest he holds legitimate claims.
Max Dynamite: Eight-year-old that returns after his 2nd placing two years ago behind Prince of Penzance, when Frankie Dettori solved his traffic problems by taking out half the field. Since that run, this horse has only had four starts, the most recent of which was a low-grade race over 3400m in Ireland, which he won cosily as the odds-on favourite. He’s obviously had problems which have kept him off the track, but he’s also been kept away from the big races overseas in order to avoid a weight penalty for this race. He gets in 1kg lighter than when he ran in 2015 and draws the exact same in barrier 2. There’s certainly no doubt he’ll run the distance, but the obvious queries are that he’s now an eight-year-old, and he was in significantly better form leading into the 2015 Cup. He gets a positive jockey booking with Zac Purton taking the ride, and while he’s a blowout chance, I’d suggest the $17 is short enough given the number of quality internationals in this year’s race.
Ventura Storm: European import who has spent the year with the Lindsay Park team, aimed purely at the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. He is a Group 1 winner in over 2400m in Italy and Group 1 placed over 2900m in the UK. His best run in Australia was undoubtedly his 2nd placing behind Winx two starts ago in the Turnbull Stakes. His subsequent run in the Caulfield Cup was very disappointing, finishing 13th of 17, but he pulled up 2/5 lame in the days after the race, and was even in doubt of being pulled from this race. That’s a big concern heading into a 3200m race for me. He draws well in barrier 6 here, so expect to see him forward of midfield with a perfect run in transit, but I can’t see him turning around his last start on the back of lameness issues.
Wicklow Brave: Another from the Willie Mullins yard and probably the least likely from his stable. He finished 22nd last year, but did have excuses after travelling wide throughout the race. Since then he’s raced eight times across four countries, including running 12th in the Caulfield Cup. The best performance from those races was a Group 1 victory over jumps, but he did run 2nd to Rekindling in the Curragh Cup in July, and he gets a 3.5kg weight swing on the winner for a 0.5L defeat. He could certainly run a good race if he were to repeat that performance, but he’s now a nine-year-old and history very much suggests he’s up against it, with no nine-year-old ever winning the Cup. Draws much better in barrier 8 this year but he’s a top 10 chance at best.
Big Duke: Another one for Darren Weir and he’s been aimed at this race all along. Finished hard to run 2nd to Foundry in a very weak Group 1 three starts ago, and followed that up with a win over 2600m in what was another weak contest. Last start he simply never got the opportunity to wind up and get a clear crack at them at Moonee Valley, as he was held up behind the tiring leader in a race won by those swooping around the outside. His only previous attempt at this distance was a 3rd placing in the Sydney Cup back in April, but that’s a B-grade Group 1 and doesn’t count for much when assessing this race. He profiles nicely as a six-year-old with just 53.5kg, and he draws to get a lovely run from barrier 5, but he’d need to produce a clear career-best to win this. He can still run well, and is a definite top 10 chance, but I struggle to see him winning.
US Army Ranger: Without doubt one of the hardest horses in the race to assess. 18 months ago this horse ran 2nd in a Derby over 2400m, and just three starts ago ran 3rd in a 4350m race at Royal Ascot. Since then, his form has completely disappeared, beaten 11 lengths in the Goodwood Cup before finishing last in a field of six in Ireland last time we saw him. Leading into the Cup he’s officially been transferred from Aidan O’Brien’s stable to his son Joseph O’Brien. If Aidan O’Brien can’t get the best out of a horse, then that raises serious questions. Add to the fact he’s drawn barrier 22, and it seems very unlikely that he’ll feature in the finish. I expect him to roll forward from that barrier, but risks being caught three-wide without cover. Happy to risk here.
Boom Time: The Caulfield Cup winner lines up with a light weight of 53kg and a good draw in barrier 9 here. While his ultimate goal for the preparation was the Caulfield Cup, he’s only had the five starts this campaign, so he’s not been over-taxed. He had absolutely everything go his way when winning two weeks ago, with a sweet run throughout the race on a track that favoured runners on speed and on the rails. He’s won up to 2500m, but it’s hard to say whether he’ll handle the step up to 3200m. It’s definitely worth the throw at the stumps, but it’d be a miracle for him to win here. I will say that as a six-year-old with his light weight, he did rate well on my ratings system.
Gallante: This is the horse I expect to go forward and act as the pacemaker for the Williams camp, to ensure this race is run at a genuine tempo. If the race were to be run on a rain-affected track, he could be considered a genuine long-shot at 150/1, but the fact remains he’s only ever placed twice from 10 starts on good ground, and the Flemington track will be firm. He is a winner at 3200m previously, in last year’s Sydney Cup, but as aforementioned, that’s a B-grade Group 1 and it was also on soft ground. He comes into this third up, where he’s won twice from four starts, but he’ll go forward and be gone by the 400m I’d say.
Libran: Seven-year-old gelding that is now Chris Waller’s sole runner following the scratching of Who Shot Thebarman. Ran well last start at Moonee Valley behind Who Shot Thebarman, who has run well on multiple occasions in this race. Libran ran 2nd in last year’s Sydney Cup behind Galllante, when going off as the favourite, and won in particularly impressive fashion earlier this prep when second up over 2000m. He can run an honest race with just 53kg on his back, but he rates as more of a top ten chance than a genuine winning or place chance.
Nakeeta: This seven-year-old gelding is set to be the first Scottish-trained horse to contest a Melbourne Cup. He’s had 31 career starts for five wins and 11 placings, which includes a last-start win in the Ebor Handicap over 2800m. That form line can be tied in to horses such as Heartbreak City (2016) and Purple Moon (2007), who both won the Ebor before finishing 2nd in their respective Melbourne Cups. Nakeeta’s win earned him an international Timeform rating of 114. He draws barrier 19 here with Glyn Schofield set to take the ride, and the stable have said they’ll ride him quiet from the gate with cover at the back of the field. He’s raced plenty of times at the distance (and beyond) so the 3200m won’t be any problem. I’d suggest the strength of his form in the UK is inferior to some of the other international horses lining up here, but the same could be said about Heartbreak City last year and he went down by a nose to Almandin. That Ebor form has to be respected. History suggests it won’t be easy as a seven-year-old tackling the Melbourne Cup at his first run in Australia and I’ll be taking him on.
Single Gaze: Five-year-old mare that ran very bravely for 2nd in the Caulfield Cup two weeks ago after doing all the donkey work behind the tearaway leader. She was very tough and very brave to run as well as she did, but the track was favouring frontrunners on the day, so perhaps she was flattered by that a touch. It remains to be seen whether that gut-buster leaves her a bit flat for her first try at 3200m here, but she’ll go forward with a light weight and put herself on speed once again from barrier 11. I’ve got her as a top ten chance but even a placing would surprise me.
Wall of Fire: This horse, along with Marmelo, profiled the best in my opinion, in terms of being a lightly-raced five-year-old that has had a terrific lead up run in Australia. That run was a flashing runner-up finish to Lord Fandango in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes over 2400m just over three weeks ago. Lord Fandango then went on to perform very well in the Caulfield Cup without much luck, so the form has turned out well. Wall Of Fire is a winner over 2900m in the UK, but has failed in two starts over 3200m. That’s the big query for me, because despite having a great profile for the Melbourne Cup, the most important thing over anything else is the ability to stay the trip. One of those 3200m races was won by Vazirabad (a horse that Tiberian ran 2nd to) and the other was behind Red Cardinal, so you have to question where he sits in the pecking order of these international horses. I do believe Craig Williams chose to ride him over Tiberian, and the run in Australia certainly stands him in good stead for the Cup. Overall, I think he profiles very nicely, but with a slight query at the distance, I have to take him on at the odds as a legitimate winning chance. I have him in my top eight.
Thomas Hobson: I’ve been fairly keen on this horse for a few weeks now, and would have loved him to have had a lead up run in Australia. His record in flat races is 12 starts for five wins and four placings, while he’s a Group 1 placegetter over jumps. His past four starts have all been flat races, and they’ve actually been the best flat performances of his career. He won a Class 2 stakes race over 4000m at Royal Ascot back in June, producing a new master Timeform rating of 119, and four days later ran 2nd over 4350m at the same track, finishing ahead of US Army Ranger and Qewy. Most recently, he ran 2nd in Group 2 company over 3600m at Doncaster, and now lines up in the Cup with 53 days between runs. The horse profiles similarly to his stablemate Max Dynamite; I’d suggest Thomas Hobson is the better of the two in flat races, but Willie Mullins has been quite adamant in saying Max Dynamite is the classier of the two. Before hearing that, I was quite keen on Thomas Hobson at $18, and even after hearing it, I’m still backing him to run a big race. He’ll have to overcome a few hoodoos, especially as an eight-year-old, but Mullins knows how to get these horses ready for this race. He’ll need a great ride from Joao Moreira from barrier 21, but Moreira produced a freakish ride on Heartbreak City last year from barrier 23, so it’s not impossible. Keen to include in everything and he’s one of the better roughies in the race.
Rekindling: This is the sixth of the Team Williams horses, and one of the harder internationals to get a gauge on. This horse has had just the nine starts, for four wins and three placings, and is the only four-year-old in the race. Four-year-old’s have a terrific record in the race, so he profiles well, especially with the 51.5kg weight. Just three starts ago he won the Curragh Cup, defeating Wicklow Brave, before running 2nd to Order Of St George, which is a very strong form line to be bringing into this race. His last race was in the Group 1 St Leger at Doncaster when he was beaten 2.1 lengths into 4th behind Capri, after encountering a bit of trouble. Without that trouble, he could have finished even closer, and with that in mind, he can be a really legitimate chance here. Lloyd Williams gave this horse a huge push on radio, and said he couldn’t split Almandin, Johannes Vermeer and Rekindling, which probably contributes to the betting plunge on this horse in the last 24 hours. My biggest concern is that the horse’s preparation dates back to April, and as a Northern Hemisphere three-year-old, it’s a big ask to come to Australia after a long preparation and win a Melbourne Cup at your first start in the country. From barrier 4, he’ll get a great run and as mentioned, he profiles very nicely for the race. I have him comfortably in my top 10, but there’s enough queries for me to take him on.
Amelie’s Star: The third of Darren Weir’s runners and I think this six-year-old mare rates very well to run a good race here. I don’t have her as a legitimate winning chance, but I’ve got her as a strong place chance. In recent years, we’ve seen horses carrying this sort of weight run into the placings, and her campaign suggests to me that she can do the same. Two starts ago, she won the Bart Cummings by two lengths, and the way she finished the race off was a good indication that she will go well over 3200m with just 51kg. My query with that race was that Granddukeoftuscany ran 2nd and Kellstorm ran 3rd, but Almandin was back in 4th so there is some credibility to the form, despite him being well below his best. Last start she was ridden upside down on a hot speed in the Caulfield Cup, so completely put a line through that. We saw Humidor bounce back after a similar performance, and I’m tipping she can do the same. I’ve got her in my top six, possibly even top four, and she’s definitely one to throw in trifectas and first fours.
Cismontaine: Led throughout to win the Lexus Stakes just three days ago. He was extremely tenacious on that occasion, being clearly headed in the straight before fighting back to get up on the line. Although we’ve seen winners of the Lexus come out and perform well in the Cup, I’d be very surprised if this horse finished in the top 10. The Lexus looked particularly weak this year, and he now fronts up three days later in a hot field for the Cup, with a very strong international contingent to deal with. He should go to the front and set the pace, but I doubt we’ll see him out in front once they enter the final furlong or two.
SUMMARY
I’ve got a clear top eight or nine horses here, but I just keep coming back to one horse and that’s Marmelo. Everything about his profile and his preparation just shapes towards him running an enormous race here. His first up run was as good a Melbourne Cup barrier trial as you’ll see, and he was always going to improve when stepped up to 3200m. He’s at the right age, the right weight and comes through a proven Melbourne Cup form line in the Prix Kergolay. That race has produced three Melbourne Cup winners since 2010, and provided Hugh Bowman can give him a good ride from barrier 16, I find it hard to see him not being in the finish here.
The horse I’m terrified of is Almandin. His win two starts ago was scarily good, and the fact they’re saying he’s in better shape than he was last year is enough to suggest he’ll be right in the finish again this year. He’s a year older now and has to overcome the poor historical record of eight-year-olds and of horses going back-to-back, but he looks the best chance Frankie Dettori has ever had to land that elusive Melbourne Cup.
My best value chances in the race come in the form of Red Cardinal, Thomas Hobson, Amelie’s Star and Tiberian. Red Cardinal is another that comes through the Prix Kergolay, and he’s in the right stable to perform well here. His record at the distance is outstanding and he could well break the hoodoo of international runners winning the Melbourne Cup first up in Australia. Thomas Hobson is in career-best form on the flat and is from a stable that knows which horses to bring out for this race. Amelie’s Star is a legitimate lightweight chance, while Tiberian has form right through Europe that should see him be very competitive at huge odds.
Outside of those, expect leading market fancies Johannes Vermeer and Rekindling to run bold races for Team Williams, and Wall of Fire ticks all the right boxes in terms of the profile needed to win the race.
With the way the market is set up, we can back several runners here for a good result. I’ll be taking on Humidor and likely having a saver on Wall Of Fire, which means we can back Marmelo for the best result, with other good results on the likes of Almandin, Red Cardinal, Thomas Hobson, Johannes Vermeer and Tiberian. I’ll be having saver bets on Rekindling and Amelie’s Star who I see as nice place chances but not so strong winning chances.
TOP 10
1ST MARMELO
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2ND ALMANDIN
3RD RED CARDINAL
4TH AMELIE’S STAR
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THOMAS HOBSON
JOHANNES VERMEER
REKINDLING
WALL OF FIRE
TIBERIAN
REKINDLING
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