2016 Mornington Cup Day Preview & Betting Tips

April 2nd 2016, 10:56pm, By: tim_tips

A huge 10-race card at Mornington is the feature meeting in Victoria this weekend, headlined by the Listed Hareeba Stakes and the Listed Mornington Cup, which of course grants an automatic entry into the Caulfield Cup later this year.

We've had a look and outlined the main winning chances from each race:

Ladbrokes Hareeba Stakes 1200m - Listed

The Listed Hareeba Stakes looks a competitive race with several winning chances among the capacity field of 16. 

Reldas scored a big win Abell Stakes last start following a 1.5L defeat to Flamerge in the Oakleigh Plate prior to that. He looks to be flying and certainly shapes as a good winning chance but barrier 19 leaves him a big job to do. 

Mirage comes into this with a big watch on him on debut for Darren Weir. Formerly raced by Peter Moody, this horse has shown plenty of ability but even more quirkiness and if he brings his best form he will be right in the finish here at double figure odds. Thermal Current is another Moody runner that has been transferred to Darren Weir. He resumed with a solid 3rd placing behind Malaguerra who has since franked that form in terrific style up in Sydney. It looks one of the stronger form lines in the race and from barrier 1 he will get a nice run in transit. 

Rough Justice recorded a win at Wangaratta last start and ran 2nd to We've Got This at Flemington the start prior. His form is good enough for him to have a solid chance in this, particularly considering he draws barrier 4. Fast Cash is another one racing in great form with two wins from his last two starts. He deserves his shot at this and should get a decent run in midfield.

The one I am most interested in is Mersault for Godolphin, who gains a run due to the scratching of General Jackson. He's been racing in some decent races in Sydney and beat home the likes of Nancy last start. Despite drawing barrier 11 he looks tough to beat, but I wouldn't want to back him if any rain falls.

If the track remains Good, Mersault is the one I want to be on with a little bit on Mirage E/W having his stable debut for Weir.

1st MERSAULT
2nd MIRAGE
3rd THERMAL CURRENT
4th ROUGH JUSTICE

Mornington BMW Cup 2400m - Listed

The Mornington Cup has a capacity field of 14 going around for a golden ticket into the 2016 Caulfield Cup in October and there's only one horse I want to be on!

Tom Melbourne looks a terrific bet. He's won 5 of his 7 career starts, including both starts this prep over 1800m and 2000m. Two starts back he won comfortably in BM90 grade at Flemington and he beat a couple of handy types that day. Last start he absolutely bolted up in the Albury Cup on a Heavy track, so regardless of if the rain comes or not he will handle the track. Gets in with a nice weight and draws barrier 5 so will slot straight into the box seat and I find it hard to see him getting beat. The $2.50 won't last.

Observational improved sharply last start and could do so again at his first try at 2400m, but the trip looks like it will suit him. If any rain falls it will enhance his chances.

Lucky Lucky Lucky has placed in 6 of his 8 races over 2400m and that includes a last start 2nd at Bendigo. From barrier 2 he will enjoy a gun run and should be competitive, but he will want any rain to stay away.

Pemberley, Berisha and Dandy Gent will all need luck from their wide barriers but all are racing consistently around this distance and should be thereabouts, while Tunes continues to run well at whatever distance he is thrown at so you can't leave him out of the numbers.

1st TOM MELBOURNE
2nd OBSERVATIONAL
3rd LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY
4th DANDY GENT

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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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