Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, June 30th.
We have a nine-race card on our hands with the rail in the 3m position. The track is currently rated a Heavy 8 but the weather predicted is sunny so we should see that upgraded into the Soft range at some point.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below, and you can also tune into Episode 40 of the Before You Bet Podcast too!
Best Bet: Race 6 #2 Sayed
Best Value: Race 3 #4 Nicci’s Gold
Just a small field to start things off here. (2) Toulouse had his first start as a gelding last time out and the money came strongly just before the jump. They were proved right as he went away to win impressively over track and distance. The track was a Soft 6 that day so he should handle conditions and the way he won that suggests he can go on with it here. (4) Bubbles’n’troubles won well on debut at Warwick Farm. Steps up to Saturday grade now but she won pretty comfortably despite sitting wide without cover and she’ll be sure to hanle conditions here. (1) Dio D’Oro is two from two this preparation, both on Heavy ground and looks the likely leader. Slight query over 1400m given the two wins have been at 1000m and 1200m.
TIP: (2) Toulouse
Highway Handicap and a rather uninspiring one at that. (5) Gitan goes on top first up from a spell. He’s got previous form in races such as these and even some better than these so if he brings his best he’d be hard to beat. (6) Mister Smartee was well backed when failing last start but he goes around again with the blinkers back on today. (7) Cliff produced a nice win at Wagga last start on Soft ground and can feature here. (9) Gronky wasn’t far off winning a similar race last start, while the favourite (4) Bocelli has won three from five career starts but is yet to see a wet track.
TIP: (5) Gitan / (6) Mister Smartee EW
Tricky race here with a number of chances. I think the favourite (1) Gresham is short enough at $3.60 after his last-start failure on the Soft ground. He was impressive in winning before that and the weight swing in his favour helps today, but with conditions likely to be very similar to what brought him undone last start, I’m keen to bet around him. (3) Lisdoonvarna should have won last start but went down by a nose. Back up in distance to 1500m here and hopefully he can atone for last start. Needs a good ride from barrier 12 but would rather take $4.20 for him than $3.60 for Gresham. (4) Nicci’s Gold was the winner in the race Gresham failed in last start. Up in weight today but is only third up and clearly appreciates the soft ground more than firm ground. The victory last start took her to three wins from four starts on rain-affected ground. $8 is appealing. (2) Curdled ran 2nd to Nicci’s Gold last start, beaten a nose. He’s annother that is perhaps better suited on the wet ground rather than firm, so he gets conditions to suit again and the weight swing helps too, but he’s now only won from 13 starts. Avdulla is off Curdled and onto (5) Asterius for Waller which raises some eyebrows.
TIP: (3) Lisdoonvarna / (4) Nicci’s Gold EW
Another tricky little race. There could be a speed battle on up front here with (2) Brook Magic and (5) Alassio. I suspect Brook Magic will hold out Alassio. On form, Brook Magic looks the goods after defeating She Knows over 1100m at Randwick on Heavy ground first up. She Knows then came out and won easily at her next start. My concern with Brook Magic is we saw her win comfortably first up last prep and then fail badly second up. It was a good fighting effort first up, but how much did that run on that surface take out of her? For that reason I’ve gone with the Waterhouse/Bott runner Alassio on top. She’s undefeated from three starts so far and comes off a solid midweek win on the Kensington track. She handles the wet and if there’s a chink in Brook Magic’s armour, she can capitalise. (1) Upscale is a very interesting runner at the top of the weights. Brenton Avdulla is an eye-catching jockey booking for a horse first up off a 343-day break. On best form, she’d be very competitive in a race like this, but she failed to fire last preparation and has since had a significant spell. Three trials to get ready for this, I can make claims for her on the basis that I have some queries about other runners. (7) Dutchess Pedrille the other runner of interest at double figure odds.
TIP: (5) Alassio / (1) Upscale EW
Open race with a number of horses you can make claims for. (14) Tornado Gal comes to town after consecutive wins at the provincials. Typically I don’t rate Goulburn or Hawkesbury form for races at Rosehill on a Saturday but she’s from an astute stable and the manner of her wins have been impressive. Light weight, low draw and handles the wet ground. (12) Lady Evelyn wasn’t far off last start and gets a big jockey change today with Kathy O’Hara replaced by Jean Van Overmeire. Looks a value chance at $13. (1) La Chica Bella won convincingly last start but has to carry 61kg today, while (3) So Splendid should be much fitter second up from a spell, but her second up record isn’t very inspiring. (3) Sweet Victory was disappointing last start but it was almost too bad to be true and could bounce back here. Chances don’t end there.
TIP: (14) Tornado Gal / (12) Lady Evelyn EW
Looks a nice race for (2) Sayed third up from a spell with just 53.5kg on his back. The booking of Sam Weatherly is an interesting one, but the horse really does get things to suit here with wet ground and a rise in trip. This looks like his day. (7) Plymouth Road was well backed and won accordingly last week over this distance at Randwick and there isn’t much reason he can’t back that up with another good performance here. He’ll lead and give them all something to catch. (5) Araaja appeared to find a very winnable race last start but Betfair told the story late in betting with her. She didn’t give much at all when put under pressure. (1) Destiny’s Kiss and (6) Doukhan both drop back from 3200m here and can’t be ruled out.
TIP: (2) Sayed
Absolute lottery. (5) Dreamforce returned with a good win over 1100m at Randwick and steps up to the 1350m here. His gelding operation has turned this horse around and he should only continue to improve this prep as he rises in distance. The wide barrier makes it tricky but the big unknown is how he’ll go on rain-affected going. (1) Jungle Edge is the best wet tracker in the race but has to carry the weight once again. Despite that, he can still win this with Forrester going back on for the apprentice who rode last start. (4) Gold Symphony is over the odds at $27. He failed first up on the heavy ground but his record on soft ground is outstanding. (6) Mister Sea Wolf could improve on a wet track for the first time in a while, as can his stablemate (14) New Universe who has a good record at the track and distance and on wet gound. (15) Manolo Blahniq saluted last start and could go well again, while (13) Flow and (7) Invinzabeel ran the quinella in their last start and should go close again.
TIP: (5) Dreamforce
Another lottery. (13) Mapmaker looks to get a nice run and wasn’t far off the winner last start. Steps up to 1500m here and the only query would be the soft ground as his record suggests he goes a bit better on firm ground. (16) Valentino Rossa has a terrific second up record with three wins from four starts. In fact, her only three career wins have come second up. The negatives are Kathy O’Hara and the horse’s record on wet ground, but at $15 she’s worth having a penny on. (6) Feelin’ The Love won well first up and will appreciate the soft draw, (7) Braces is an absolute mudlark and will relish conditions once again and (8) Cosmic Engine would win this on his day. (9) Promtheus has had early backing but draws awkwardly and probably needs it as firm as possible, while (14) Raqeeq is the other one with early support but has never placed first up before. Genuine dartboard job, this.
TIP: (13) Mapmaker / (16) Valentino Rossa EW
As if the two races prior to this weren’t hard enough, we close out the day with another capacity field. (11) Best Guess should be fitter second up here and didn’t get a whole lot of luck first up behind Albumin. He’s two from two on soft ground and is a horse that’s probably still capable of improving. $8 each way will be my main play here. (2) His Majesty is first up from an eternity off the track but has trialled well on two occasions and is in the right stable to be competitive after such a long time off. (15) Easy Eddie was poor last start but his form prior to that would see him give this a good shake. (16) Clear The Beach was only fair first up but can improve with a wider draw here second up. (7) Tango Rain not hopeless, along with a few others in a deep race.
TIP: (11) Best Guess EW
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