NRL Round 24 comes to an end with two teams whose seasons are essentially over, as the Knights head to Townsville to take on the Cowboys. With the Cowboys (14th) and the Knights (15th) four wins outside the top 8, a loss here confirms season over, however, let’s be honest, neither of these teams are making the top 8. This one could open up and see points galore.
Ben brings you his preview and best bets for this clash below and if you’re keen to play along, simply join Neds via this link!
Cowboys vs Knights Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 24
Dearden Cleary Comparisons May Have Been Premature
The Cowboys have been in horrible form over the past few months, winning just two of their past 10 games, and currently sporting a two-game losing streak. It’s been a horror season for the North Queensland side, and with the amount of talent the team has at its disposal, the end of the Todd Payten era has to be coming soon.
Last week, the Cowboys took on the Eels on Sunday afternoon at CommBank, and the game couldn’t have been much tighter. Both teams looked as though they didn’t know how to win, until the Cowboys appeared to have scored a game winning try in the dying stages, only for it to be called back as Mitch Moses was obstructed. Moses slotted a field goal in the 75th minute to get the win for the Eels, sneaking home 19-18. Coen Hess was massive for the Cowboys, making 40 tackles and running for 194 metres on 17 runs, whilst Braidon Burns and Jaxon Purdue also played well for the Cowboys, but it was once again their lack of production from their chief playmakers that hurt them, with Tom Dearden and Scott Drinkwater continuing their poor run of form. Dearden has looked horrible the last two weeks, with his purple patch of form seemingly over.
Are the Knights Primed for the Spoon?
The Knights come into this clash as the lowest rated team in my power numbers, having lost five straight games. They currently occupy 15th spot on the ladder but are just two points clear of the cellar dwelling Gold Coast Titans. They are definitely on Wooden Spoon watch, and the calls for Adam O’Brien’s job grow louder by the week.
Last week, the Knights hosted the Panthers in terrible conditions on Friday night. These conditions would typically give the lesser team more opportunities for an upset, but that was nowhere near the case, as the Panthers ran roughshod over the Knights for 80 minutes, easily winning 48-12. The Panthers ran for over 2100 metres in monsoonal conditions, almost 1000 metres more than the Knights, whilst breaking the line 9 times and scoring nine tries to two. There weren’t a lot of positives for the Knights, with Greg Marzhew running for over 200 metres and busting 11 tackles and rookie Jermaine McEwen being the only bright spots for the Knights as they were blown off the park. With only one more home game to come this year, and a tough final four games, the Wooden Spoon is certainly calling.
Cowboys vs Knights Recent History
This has been a rivalry dominated by the home teams, with zero road wins for either team since the 2015 season, when the Cowboys got the better of the Knights at McDonald Jones Stadium, winning 26-24. The past four games between the sides have been played in Townsville, with the Cowboys winning all four by an average margin of 8.75 points, however that average is heavily skewed by their 20-point win in 2022.
Their last meeting came in the first round of the finals last season, as the Cowboys closed 8.5-point home favourites, with a total of 45.5. It was a tremendous first half for the Knights, as they looked by far the better side and on the cusp of a huge upset, leading 12-4 after 40 minutes. However, the second half was all North Queensland, as they ran in four converted tries to win comfortably, 28-16. Kyle Feldt ran for nearly 300 metres, whilst Scott Drinkwater was instrumental for the home side, as they moved into a semi-final showdown with the Sharks, and the Knights packed their bags for Bali.
Quite unbelievable that both these teams made the finals last year.
Cowboys -7.5, Against Anyone? Mmm No
The Cowboys opened solid 6.5-point favourites after the Knights were totally destroyed last week, with more money coming in on the home side throughout the week, as they now sit as 7.5-point favourites. My number sits at Cowboys -6, however it’s not hard to see how the market has gotten to 7.5 here and is more than likely based on how poor the Knights have been, and the potential upswing for the Cowboys.
Looking at the total, and it opened 46.5 and has been bet up to 47.5. This is well north of my number, but with both teams having little to lose, this game could get out of hand in a real hurry. The Cowboys have been a solid overs team this year, and I would definitely lean towards the over, but given my number is so far away, I can’t bet it.
Whilst I’m by no means convinced by this bet, I’ll have to take the Knights here. Much like the Titans being favoured by 6.5 last week, I don’t believe the Cowboys should be favoured by more than a converted try against anyone. Yes, they may blow the Knights off the park, but I haven’t seen anything that would lend me to believe this is inevitable, and I’ll take the points here in a game that honestly could go anywhere.
Knights (+7.5)
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Cowboys vs Knights Player Prop Bet: Simply the Best
Our Best Prop Bet: Best 1+ Try
Bradman Best hasn’t quite had the year he would have hoped, dealing with injuries and losing his Blues jersey, but I think he’s primed for a big game here against the Cowboys. The North Queensland right edge has been weak all season, and they will struggle to stop Best.
Bradman Best (1+ try)
$2.90 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi: Eels vs Cowboys
Leg 1: Knights (+7.5) – See Best Bet.
Leg 2: B Best (1+ try) – See Best Prop Bet.
Leg 3: J Purdue (1+ try) – Back to his best in the centres, expect Purdue to use his speed to score one here against the Knights.
SGM Odds: $10.00 at Dabble
Cowboys vs Knights Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday, 17th August
Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium - Townsville
Time: 4:05pm AEST
Weather: Sunny, 25 degrees
Odds: Cowboys ($1.44) vs Knights ($2.80)
Line: Cowboys (-7.5)
Points: 47.5
Where to Watch Cowboys vs Knights
Watch the Cowboys vs Knights match on Channel 9, as well as live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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