Sydney will be looking to cause havoc for another top four contender when they take on Geelong at the SCG. Geelong can’t afford a slip up with a top two spot up for grabs, in what looks to be one of the most intriguing games of the weekend.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Swans vs Cats below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Sydney vs Geelong Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 23
Sydney Playing Spoilers
Sydney’s upset over the Lions has thrown the top eight and top four races into chaos, as Brisbane fell outside of the top four, and still need to win at least one of their last two games to secure a top eight place. The Swans were led by another stunning performance from Isaac Heeney, who kicked 5 goals to go with 23 disposals and 6 marks. Sydney’s back six held up remarkably well considering Brisbane had 29 more marks, 19 more clearances and 13 more inside 50’s. However the Swans defence stood tall for most of the afternoon to secure their most impressive win of the season.
Geelong in Cruise Control
Geelong recorded their fourth consecutive victory, but it wasn’t as dominant as what many predicted going in. The Cats eventually got out to a 44 point win, but it wasn’t without a scare as Essendon closed to within 20 points with Geelong conceding four straight goals. The usual suspects starred as Bailey Smith (31 disposals) and Max Homes (29 disposals) controlled proceedings in the middle of the ground, while Jeremy Cameron kicked 4 goals to take his season tally to 79. Geelong have now won four on the bounce by margins of 31, 101, 88 and 44 points and will be looking for another big performance to ensure they finish in the top two.
The Stats That Matter
The Cats front half work has been a thing of wonder this season, ranking as the second highest scoring team in the competition (105 points per game).1st for scores from forward half, 2nd for scores from turnover, 2nd for scores from defensive half, 3rd for scores from stoppage, 4th for scores from centre bounce and 8th for scores from kick in. Geelong is one of only three teams to rank in the top eight for all three score sources and score origins.
In comparison Sydney doesn’t rank in the top eight for any score source or origin, as they struggle to nail down a method under Dean Cox. Sydney ranks 12th for points per game, scoring just 79 points per game. Another way to highlight the difference in scoring capacity is that Geelong have scored over 108 points in their last four games, while Sydney has only reached triple figures in one game this season.
Swans or Cats? Here’s Our Sydney vs Geelong Tip
People will hype the Swans up as a genuine chance in this game, however the reality is that Geelong has produced a significantly better season than Sydney in just about every major category. The SCG hasn’t been a fortress like last season, with the Swans having only a 5-5 record at home in 2025. Geelong have feasted on the bottom ten sides in the second half of this season with a 9-0 record and an average winning margin of 62 points against teams outside of the top eight since Round 10.
Since Round 9, the Cats have kicked scores of 101, 115, 127, 116, 61, 151, 51, 124, 85, 113, 150, 153 and 109. That's an average of 122 points per game over their last 13 games, 10 out of their last 13 games kicking over 100 points, and 5 games over 120 points. The Geelong offensive juggernaut will be far too strong for a middle of the road Swans defence, and will pick up another big victory.
Geelong -17.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Sydney vs Geelong Prop Bet: Can he get to the ton?
Our Best Prop Bet: Cameron 4+ Goals
Inaccuracy against the Bombers last week put a dent in Jeremy Cameron’s aspirations to join the 100 club, however even on a quiet night he still kicked 4 goals and had 9 scoring shots. Cameron has put up video game numbers over the last 12 weeks, kicking 7, 6, 5, 0, 6, 4, 4, 1, 5, 11, 6 and 4 goals, a mammoth 59 goals - more than any other player has kicked for the entire season.
Jeremy Cameron 4+ Goals
$2.00
Sydney vs Geelong Same Game Multi
Bailey Smith 30+ Disposals: He isn’t getting the hype he was early in the season, but Bailey Smith is still racking up plenty of touches week after week, averaging 31 disposals per game. Smith has reached the 30+ disposal mark in his last three games, and has hit 30+ in 11 of his 18 games in 2025.
Jeremy Cameron 4+ Goals: As mentioned above, returns of 7, 6, 5, 0, 6, 4, 4, 1, 5, 11, 6 and 4 goals across his last 12 games speaks for itself and his teammates will be looking to feed him at every opportunity.
Shannon Neale 2+ Goals: While Jeremy Cameron rightfully is getting a lot of plaudits, Shannon Neale has been a great second fiddle in his first season getting consistent games. Neale is 14th on the Coleman Medal leaderboard with 37 goals, and has kicked 2+ in 5 of his last six games, with returns of 3, 3, 4, 0, 5 and 3 goals.
SGM Odds: $4.10 with Dabble
Sydney vs Geelong Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 17th August
Time: 3:20pm AEST
Location: SCG
Weather: Sunny, 13 degrees
Odds: Sydney ($1.37) vs Geelong ($3.10)
Line: Geelong -17.5
Points: 172.5
Where to Watch Sydney vs Geelong?
You can watch Sydney vs Geelong on 7 & Kayo Sports.
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