The final round of the 2025 AFL home and away season begins on Thursday night as old rivals Essendon and Carlton do battle at the MCG. Although it’s a dead-rubber, you can expert it to be a fierce contest between two clubs with genuine dislike for one another.
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Essendon vs Carlton Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 24
Captain Zach’s 250th
The final round of the 2025 AFL season kicks off with a matchup between arch-rivals Essendon and Carlton at the MCG. For the Bombers, it’s a chance to end a disastrous season on a high note. Ravaged by an unprecedented injury crisis, Essendon has been forced to blood an incredible 15 debutants throughout the year, leading to a complete collapse in the second half of the season. They enter this clash on the back of an 11-game losing streak, desperate for a circuit-breaker. The match holds special significance as inspirational captain Zach Merrett returns from a week off with a broken hand to play his 250th game, a milestone his beleaguered side will be determined to honour with a competitive showing.
Blues fighting Until the End
Carlton, meanwhile, will be looking to finish a deeply disappointing season with some positive momentum. After making a preliminary final in 2024, the Blues failed to live up to expectations in 2025 and will miss the finals. However, their form has shown signs of life in recent weeks as they look to build a platform for next year. They are coming off one of their most impressive performances of the season, a thumping 54-point victory over Port Adelaide, where key forward Harry McKay returned to his dominant best with a seven-goal haul. The Blues will view this clash against their wounded rivals as a non-negotiable win to carry into the off-season.
Recent History
Recent history between these fierce rivals has been tightly contested. Carlton claimed a narrow eight-point victory when they met in Round 13 earlier this season, and also won their encounter in 2024. However, Essendon won the corresponding fixture in 2023, highlighting that the form guide can often be thrown out the window when these two clubs meet.
Blues to Cover? Here’s Our Essendon vs Carlton Tip
Despite the emotion surrounding Merrett’s milestone, the gulf between these two sides at present is significant. Essendon is limping to the finish line with a patched-up team, while Carlton has found a semblance of their best form and will be ruthless. The Bombers have struggled to be competitive for long periods during their losing streak, and Carlton’s midfield depth and forward-line firepower should prove too strong. Expect the Blues to control the contest from the outset and record a comfortable victory, covering the -22.5 point spread.
Carlton -22.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
Essendon vs Carlton Prop Bet
Our Best Prop Bet: McMahon 2+ Goals
What an impact Liam McMahon has made since joining the club. He’s been making it look easy at the top level with 11 goals from his five matches and is coming off bags of four and three over the past fortnight. He’s kicked 2+ in the four full matches he’s played, yet you can get nearly 3-1 odds for that streak to continue on Thursday night.
Liam McMahon 2+ Goals
$2.85
Essendon vs Carlton Same Game Multi
Carlton to Win: The Bombers have lost 11 in a row and come up against a Blues side that has shown improved form in recent weeks. Happy to include the Blues H2H in our SGM.
Liam McMahon Anytime Goal Scorer: For the reasons mentioned in our prop bet above, happy to be on McMahon to jag at least one.
George Hewett 25+ Disposals: Has put together an excellent season and has had 25+ touches in three of his last four matches including 35 against the Power last weekend.
Same Game Multi Odds: $4.33 at Dabble
Essendon vs Carlton Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Thursday, August 21st 2025
Time: 7:30pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Essendon $3.75 vs Carlton $1.28
Line: Carlton –22.5
Points: 167.5
Where to Watch Essendon vs Carlton
You can watch the Bombers vs Blues clash live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our Essendon vs Carlton Tips at Dabble!
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