Divisional Round Monday closes out one of the most information-rich weekends on the NFL betting calendar, with a two-game prime-time double header that strips the postseason down to execution, depth, and adaptability. With Texans @ Patriots followed by Rams @ Bears, this slate offers two very different betting environments — one built on defensive structure and discipline, the other shaped by offensive ceiling and defensive fragility.
The opening matchup sees Houston travel to New England in a game where market confidence leans heavily toward playoff experience, home-field advantage, and defensive control. Totals are tight, margins are narrow, and quarterback usage — particularly mobility under pressure — looms large from a betting perspective. The nightcap then flips the script entirely, with Los Angeles heading to Chicago in a matchup defined by tempo, explosive play potential, and two defences that showed vulnerability during Wild Card weekend.
From a betting standpoint, Divisional Round games reward bettors who can separate regular-season noise from postseason truth. Below, we break down each matchup using last week’s Wild Card performances, identify the strongest sides and totals, and isolate prop markets built on usage trends rather than guesswork.
Let’s break it down!
NFL Week Divisional Monday Betting Tips
Game 1: Texans at Patriots
Wild Card Recap
New England Patriots — Defeated Chargers 16-3
New England advanced with a 16–3 win over the Chargers, in a game that was as much about defensive dominance as it was about playoff composure. The Patriots’ defence controlled the entire night: they limited L.A. to 207 total yards, consistently won on early downs, and finished with six sacks, turning every Chargers drive into a grind.
Offensively, the headline was Drake Maye’s legs as the stabiliser. Maye wasn’t perfect — he put the ball on the deck twice (one lost) and also threw a deflected interception — but he repeatedly solved pressure with movement and kept New England out of long-yardage traps, finishing with 66 rushing yards on 10 carries. The Patriots’ biggest offensive splash came on a 28-yard touchdown strike to Hunter Henry, which provided separation in a game where points were always going to be at a premium.
The key takeaway for the Divisional Round: New England don’t need to win pretty. If they set the tempo and force opponents to earn every yard, their defensive floor is high enough to carry them — and Maye’s mobility adds a postseason “escape hatch” when protection breaks down.
Houston Texans — Defeated Steelers 30-6
Houston announced themselves as a real postseason threat with a 30–6 win over the Steelers, delivering what DeMeco Ryans described as one of the best defensive performances in franchise history. The Texans held Pittsburgh to a staggering 175 total yards (just 81 in the second half), and the Steelers were never consistently “ahead of the chains” — they were suffocated.
The defining feature of the game was how Houston turned pressure into points. The Texans generated constant disruption — four sacks, 17 QB pressures, 12 QB hits, nine tackles for loss — and slammed the door with two defensive touchdowns late: a fumble return TD and a pick-six that iced it. It was a classic playoff blueprint: eliminate explosives, win third down by forcing long-yardage, then punish the opponent when they get desperate.
Offensively, Houston didn’t need fireworks because the defence owned field position and momentum. The key takeaway for the Divisional Round: the Texans’ pass rush and swarm tackling are absolutely real — and when they get a lead, they can turn games into four-quarter suffocation rather than shootouts.
Spread Betting
Bet: Patriots -3 (Best Bet)
This is a playoff structure bet.
Three reasons Patriots -3 is a bet:
- Defensive control travels — discipline compounds at home
New England’s defence thrives on forcing opponents to execute long drives. Houston’s offense has shown it prefers explosive plays over methodical efficiency, which plays directly into the Patriots’ strength. Over four quarters, that mismatch tends to widen rather than narrow.
- Quarterback decision-making under pressure
Houston’s pass rush is real, but New England are comfortable letting Maye operate outside structure when needed. His willingness to take yards with his legs rather than force throws neutralises pressure and keeps the Patriots on schedule.
- Playoff home environments magnify small edges
Laying a field goal at home in the Divisional Round is not about domination — it’s about control. New England don’t need separation early; they squeeze late. This profiles as a 6 to 10-point win far more often than a coin-flip finish.
Verdict: Patriots -3 is the best bet.
Total Points Market
Lean: Under 40.5
This total reflects exactly how New England want this game to be played.
Why the under is live:
- New England are content bleeding clock once ahead
- Houston’s explosive scoring paths are reduced by defensive discipline
- Both teams showed a willingness to punt and play field position in Wild Card weekend
This is not a bet on offensive ineptitude — it’s a bet on postseason tempo compression.
Verdict: Under 40.5 is a lean. If you can find a 41 or 41.5, it’s a solid bet.
Key Players & Prop Markets
Drake Maye — Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (Best Prop)
This is a usage-driven playoff prop.
Why it plays:
- Houston’s pass rush forces quarterbacks off their first read
- Maye has shown a willingness to escape and take positive yardage rather than force throws
- Designed movement and scramble yards both contribute here
In playoff games, quarterback rushing often becomes a problem-solver, not a bonus.
Play: Maye over 34.5 rushing yards
Hunter Henry — Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
This prop leans into Houston’s season-long tendency to allow tight ends to accumulate volume underneath.
Why it makes sense:
- New England use Henry as a safety valve on early downs and third downs
- Houston’s aggressive fronts leave space behind them
- Even modest efficiency across 5–6 targets clears this number
Play: Henry over 38.5 receiving yards
Also Backing:
Drake Maye over 34.5 rushing yards - $1.90 @ Dabble (1.5u)
Hunter Henry over 38.5 receiving yards - $1.90 @ Bet365 (1u)
Patriots -3
$1.83 (2.5 units)
Game 2: Rams at Bears
Wild Card Recap
Los Angeles Rams — Defeated Panthers 34-31
The Rams survived a 34–31 win over the Panthers in a Wild Card opener that was high-paced, high-stress, and packed with explosive moments. The story was the Rams’ passing game (and specifically Puka Nacua) repeatedly landing haymakers when Carolina threatened to flip the script.
Nacua was the clear offensive engine: he touched the ball 13 times for 125 total yards and two touchdowns, producing both as a receiver and on the ground — a usage profile that screams “playoff featured weapon.” More importantly for projecting forward, the Rams leaned into him in the high-leverage moments: third downs, momentum drives, and red-zone situations where Stafford needed a win-now target.
The defensive side was shakier — the Rams allowed Carolina to hang around and forced themselves to keep scoring rather than closing the game out cleanly. But the takeaway is still clear: Los Angeles have an offense that can create points quickly, and Nacua’s role isn’t theoretical — it’s foundational.
Chicago Bears — Defeated Packers 31-27
Chicago punched through with a statement playoff win, storming back to beat the Packers 31–27 in a game defined by second-half aggression and one defining “alpha” moment late. The Bears trailed early, then flipped the game completely after halftime, stacking stops and touchdowns until the Packers were the ones playing tight.
Offensively, Caleb Williams threw for a Bears playoff-record 361 yards (24-of-48) with two touchdowns, keeping Chicago alive through volume even when the game script demanded risk. In the pass game, the production wasn’t isolated: rookie tight end Colston Loveland went for 8 catches, 137 yards, while D.J. Moore posted six receptions for 61 yards and delivered the knockout blow — a game-winning touchdown, his first career postseason score.
The key takeaway for the Divisional Round: Chicago showed they can win in a high-variance environment — pushing tempo, embracing the pass, and staying aggressive late. And with Moore and Loveland both functioning as real chain-movers, the Bears can sustain offense even if the run game isn’t carrying the load.
Spread Betting
Bet: Bears +4 (Best Bet)
This is a profile bet.
Three reasons Bears +4 is a bet:
- Rams’ defence has struggled to contain layered offenses
Chicago’s ability to attack horizontally and vertically stresses a Rams defence that has shown issues tackling in space and defending extended drives.
- Home underdogs with offensive confidence matter in the Divisional Round
Chicago showed in Wild Card weekend they’re willing to stay aggressive regardless of opponent. Catching more than a field goal at home in a game with a high total creates value.
- This game profiles closer than the market implies
Even if the Rams win, it’s difficult to see separation unless their defence dramatically improves in one week — something they haven’t shown consistently.
Verdict: Bears +4 is the best bet.
Total Points Market
Bet: Over 48
Both teams enter with defensive question marks and offensive confidence.
Why the over is live:
- Rams rely on explosive passing
- Bears are comfortable pushing tempo
- Both defences showed vulnerability in Wild Card weekend
If either team gains an early lead, the other has the tools — and willingness — to chase.
Verdict: Over 48 is a bet.
Key Players & Prop Markets
Puka Nacua — Over 99.5 Receiving Yards
Nacua remains the focal point of the Rams’ offense.
Why it plays:
- High target share regardless of game script
- Bears’ secondary showed susceptibility to volume receivers
- Rams will lean on Nacua in high-leverage spots
Play: Nacua over 99.5 receiving yards
D.J. Moore — Over 26.5 Receiving Yards
This line is simply too low for Moore’s role.
Why it makes sense:
- Moore’s involvement is baked into Chicago’s game plan
- Even conservative usage clears this number
- Any negative game script boosts his opportunity
- Rams’ outside corners were cooked last week by McMillan and Coker
Play: Moore over 26.5 receiving yards
Also Backing:
Over 48.5 total - $1.90 @ NEDS (1u)
Puka Nacua over 99.5 receiving yards - $1.90 @ Bet365 (1.5u)
D.J. Moore over 26.5 receiving yards - $1.90 @ Bet365 (1.5u)
Bears +4
$1.90 (1.5 units)
