The midpoint of the 2025 NFL season lands under the lights of AT&T Stadium in Arlington, as the Dallas Cowboys host the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football. With both teams sitting below .500 — Dallas at 3-4-1 and Arizona at 2-5 — this matchup carries serious implications for each side’s fading playoff hopes.
From a betting standpoint, this is one of the most intriguing games of Week 9. The Cowboys’ defence continues to leak big plays at an alarming rate, while Arizona’s offense under Jacoby Brissett has quietly found rhythm despite ongoing uncertainty around Kyler Murray’s return. The market has responded by pushing the total higher all week, suggesting fireworks in prime time.
Below, we break down the form lines, betting insights, and player props ahead of Tuesday morning’s (AEDT) kick-off. And if you like our tips and are keen to back them in, consider doing so at Dabble!
NFL Week 9 Cardinals at Cowboys Betting Tips
AT&T Stadium, Arlington – Tuesday 4th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week Recap
Dallas Cowboys: Defensive Collapse Continues
The Cowboys are coming off a humbling 44-24 defeat to the Denver Broncos, a result that laid bare their defensive flaws once again. Over their last five games, Dallas has surrendered an average of 33.2 points per game, ranking 30th in scoring defence.
Against Denver, they conceded 426 total yards at a staggering 7.5 yards per play, while allowing Bo Nix — hardly a top-tier quarterback — to toss four touchdowns. The Cowboys have now forced only five turnovers in eight games, well below the league average, and are giving up the second-highest opponent passer rating in the NFC (99.6).
On offense, it wasn’t much better. Dak Prescott managed just 188 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. The running game was again non-existent, with Javonte Williams and Jaydon Blue combining for only 70 yards on 21 carries. Despite bright spots from CeeDee Lamb (7/74) and George Pickens (7/78), the Cowboys will need to be a lot better on offense this week to have a chance at victory.
Arizona Cardinals: Off a Bye and Trending Up
The Cardinals had a Week 8 bye — welcome relief after a frustrating 27-23 loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 7. That game was emblematic of Arizona’s season: competitive, well-coached, but just short of closing games.
Jacoby Brissett has been steady in relief of Kyler Murray, completing 66.8% of passes for 7.4 yards per attempt and throwing multiple touchdowns in consecutive games before the bye. In that Green Bay loss, he posted 279 yards and 2 TDs, connecting repeatedly with Trey McBride, who hauled in 10 receptions for 74 yards and two scores.
Murray remains listed as questionable but has reportedly been limited in practice. Even if active, Head Coach Jonathan Gannon has hinted he may play a situational role, leaving Brissett to handle most snaps. Encouragingly, the Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games and have averaged 26.7 points across their last three contests.
Matchup Breakdown
The lookahead line opened with the Cowboys -3, and despite some sharp action toward Dallas early in the week, the line has held steady. Books have adjusted the vig, making the Cowboys -3 slightly juiced at around $1.86, while the Cardinals sit around $1.95 at +3.
From a metrics standpoint, the teams are closer than records suggest. The Cowboys rank 24th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), while Arizona is 21st — marginally better despite quarterback instability. Dallas’s defence ranks 31st in EPA per play allowed over the past month, and opponents have scored 30+ points in five straight.
The total opened at 52.5, quickly bet up to 53.5, with some books hinting at a possible close near 54, a key number in totals betting. The over makes sense:
- Cowboys games have gone over in five straight (average total 68.8).
- Cardinals games have gone over in three straight.
- Dallas home games are averaging a jaw-dropping 74.3 total points per game this season.
Given two aggressive passing attacks and two bottom-tier defences, this game sets up as a classic prime-time shootout.
Key Players & Prop Markets
CeeDee Lamb & George Pickens (Cowboys)
Despite the Cowboys’ struggles, Lamb continues to be Prescott’s safety valve, leading the team with 67 targets and averaging 82.5 yards per game. He’s topped 70 yards in six of eight contests. Pickens, meanwhile, has emerged as a legitimate WR2 threat, drawing at least seven targets in four of his last five games and posting a 2.19 yards-per-route-run clip since joining Dallas.
Against an Arizona secondary allowing 247.3 passing yards per game and a 68% completion rate, both receivers are in line for strong outings.
Trey McBride (Cardinals)
McBride’s chemistry with Brissett has been obvious. Since Week 5, he ranks third among tight ends in targets (32) and second in receptions (27). The Cowboys have struggled to contain tight ends all season, allowing 6.2 catches and 64.5 yards per game to the position — fifth-most in the NFL.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals)
The rookie phenom is trending upward, seeing at least six targets in four straight games. His line of 54.5 receiving yards feels conservative given his deep threat role (14.8 yards per catch) and Dallas’s coverage woes — they’ve allowed 10 pass plays of 30+ yards in their last three games alone.
Harrison’s combination of size and route sharpness makes him a strong candidate to clear this total, particularly if Arizona finds itself trailing and forced into a pass-heavy game script.
Over 53.5 Total Points — $1.90 at Ladbrokes (3 units)
-Both defences are bottom-five in points allowed.
- Each team has exceeded 27 points in at least three of their past four games.
- Historical trends: Overs are 11-4 in Cowboys home games since 2024 when the total is above 50.
Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 54.5 Receiving Yards — $1.90 at Bet365 (2 units)
- Averaging 62.7 yards over his last three.
- Faces a Cowboys defence allowing the third-most explosive passing plays this season.
- Projected 7+ targets in a high-volume environment.
Final Thoughts & Tips
This matchup perfectly encapsulates the unpredictability of the 2025 season. The Cowboys’ defence has collapsed, their offense looked to have taken a step back last week, and yet they remain slight home favourites on reputation alone. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been quietly competitive and far better structured than many expected under Brissett.
With two struggling defences, improving passing attacks, and both teams desperate for momentum entering the season’s second half, expect another high-scoring Monday Night Football.
The numbers back it up — both clubs combine for over 60 total points per game since Week 6 — and unless the Cowboys’ secondary miraculously tightens, this one should soar over the total.
Prediction: Cowboys 31 – Cardinals 28
Prop Bet: M. Harrison Jr. Over 54.5 Receiving Yards - $1.90 at Bet365 (2 units)
Over 53.5 Total Points
$1.90 (2 Units)
