One of the most interesting matches of AFL Round 10 takes place in the Saturday twilight timeslot as Hawthorn and Melbourne go head to head. It’s a battle between fourth and seventh in a crucial game for both clubs!
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Demons vs Hawks clash below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Melbourne vs Hawthorn Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 10
Fun and Dangerous
The Demons continue to play enterprising football and dominated from the get go in a convincing win over West Coast last week. Melbourne have won three out of their last four games, to be within a game of the top four, in what has been a remarkable start under Steven King. Melbourne have completely turned their gamestyle, averaging the fourth most points in the league (101 per game), kicking 100+ points in six of their nine games.
Litmus Test Failed
Hawthorn headed out west to take on a red hot Fremantle side, and late into the final e last quarter, looked on track to grind out a crucial victory. However the Dockers kicked five unanswered goals in the final 7:55 of the match, which saw Hawthorn lose by 15 points. The Hawks defence was outstanding to hold up for the majority of the match, with Hawthorn losing the inside 50 count by 14, which came as a result of losing clearances by 12. The Hawks will be missing some key players this week, with Jack Gunston, Tom Barrass and Connor Nash all out.
Recent Head to Head History
This matchup has been a back and forth affair, with a 3-2 advantage to the Dees across the last five meetings between the two clubs. However Hawthorn have won their last two games against Melbourne, by margins of 35 and 36 points.
Demons or Hawks? Here’s our Melbourne vs Hawthorn Tip
There’s going to be plenty of speed in this game which is certain to be a high scoring affair at the MCG. It’s going to be a cracking game between two of the most exciting teams in the competition. Melbourne haven’t been overawed against the best teams in the AFL in recent times, beating the Lions and Suns, whilst getting within 17 points of the Swans. Given the Hawks are without their best forward in Gunston and their best key defender in Barrass, Melbourne are a red hot chance to not only keep this close, but win this game.
Melbourne +16.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Melbourne vs Hawthorn Prop Bet
Jack Steele has been an excellent pick up for Melbourne this year, averaging almost 25 disposals per game. The former Saints captain is in good form, reaching the 25+ disposal mark in four of his last six games, while in his last two games against Hawthorn he has recorded 26 and 30 disposals.
Jack Steele 25+ Disposals
$2.10
Melbourne vs Hawthorn Same Game Multi
Jack Steele 25+ Disposals: As mentioned above, has reached 25+ in four of his last six games, and has reached it in his last two games against the Hawks.
Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals: The Hawks co-captain has had a very consistent season, reaching 25+ disposals in six of his last seven games. Newcombe’s last three weeks have produced performances of 30, 28 and 26 disposals.
Nick Watson 2 Goals: The Wizard has been electric in 2026, kicking 23 goals from nine games. Watson has kicked 2+ in four consecutive games, and has hit the mark in seven of his nine games this season.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday 16th May
Time: 4:15pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Melbourne $2.85 vs Hawthorn $1.44
Line: Melbourne -16.5
Points: 184.5
Where to Watch Melbourne vs Hawthorn
You can watch the Demons vs Hawks live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at Dabble!
Not familiar with Dabble? Check out our full Dabble review here, or by clicking the banner below.
