Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Moonee Valley on Friday, December 21st.
We’ve got a standard eight-race card under lights with the track currently rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position. There is some rain predicted throughout the day so keep an eye on track conditions.
We’ve got tips and comments for every race on the card below!
Best Bet: Race 5 Kakanui E/W
Best Value: Race 6 Duke Of Oz E/W
Not sure Beers With Clint will be favourite come jump time, so probably bet early if you can as I suspect a couple of these will shorten. Cozhecancan is one which could start favourite. He’s first up from the Weir yard. On debut he ran well for 3rd at Ballarat before being tested in a good form race at Caulfield behind Thrillster. Mark Zahra is a notable jockey booking for this yard and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him win. His stablemate Fantizzy Girl has had two runs back from a spell. She ran the quickest sectionals of the race at Echuca last start, which was a huge improvement on what she produced first up. Third up and in town now with J Allenon board, she’s probably the value at $10. Joy’s Reward had one trial up in Sydney in March and went terribly. She was put straight away and she’s looked good at the jump outs this time in. She won her heat impressively from the front, recording a time of 49.78 for the 800m. Drawn a little awkward in barrier 9 but expect her to go forward and if she finds the rail, she could be tough to run down. Her price at $6.50 is decent. Victory Kingdom is the one I’ve settled on. She also jumped out well at Flemington, where she led and was run down by Poised To Strike, who has some decent enough form behind her. She wasn’t really asked to win the heat but was more held together. She’d drawn inside Joy’s Reward so may well find the rail. She looks a strong winning chance on debut. Happy to take on the current favourite Beers With Clint. Victory Kingdom goes on top of Joy’s Reward, with Fantizzy Girl the value at double figures. Money back promos available.
You’d be brave taking $2.50 about North Afrika here. He’s placed in six from 10 starts and has had plenty of opportunities to get his win so I’ll be looking elsewhere. Necessitas started $2.90 favourite at Cranbourne last start and was run down to be beaten less than a length in 3rd. Should put herself on speed and Craig Williams takes over from Damien Thornton tonight. He’s had three rides for this stable this season, resulting in one win and another placing. He’s a chance at each way odds. Caravan also comes out of that same Cranbourne race and ran the best final sectionals of the race. That was her debut so he should have plenty of natural improvement in her. The slight concern with her is the speed map given she settled back in the field last start, but she should get a cosy run from barrier 3. She’s a chance at $8.50. The blowout in the race is the Weir-trained Urban Equity at $21. She’s had two career starts at Donald and Echuca. Despite finishing 5th, she was beaten half-a-length last start and ran the fastest final 400m and 200m of the race (her final 200m was the fourth fastest of the meeting). Stays at 1600m here with Fred Kersley taking 2kg off from the inside barrier. Money back promos available.
Made Me Shiver is the one they’re all going to have to run down here. She led all the way to win first up at Yarra Valley and was out by as much as 5L at one stage before being eased down to the line. She should find the rail and be tough to catch. It’s important to keep an eye on Race 2 to see how the form of Rock Dove works out. She won at Cranbourne last start, beating a number of runners engaged in tonight’s second race. She’s already had some backing into $7.50 but if one of those horses were to frank the form leading into this race, she could start much shorter. Aasira won two starts back on the Hillside course at Sandown before placing in Adelaide last start. Back to Melbourne and gets 3kg claimer Michael Poy on board. Not hopeless for the Weir yard.
This really is a low race. Come On Carl resumed with a sound effort behind Runsati at Mornington over 1200m first up and on that run he should be competitive in this. The step up from 1200m to 1500m is a slight query for me but he did win over 1700m last prep so he might be looking for the ground. Ben Melham takes the ride from the good gate. I slightly favour Encanto over him though, with the Ciaron Maher/Mark Zahra combination a bit more appealing to me than the connections of Come On Carl. Encanto resumed with a 2nd placing at Pakenham over 1400m and should be much better off with that run under the belt (1400m first up isn’t easy). Zahra takes over from the apprentice tonight which is a positive, as if gate 1. His two failures last prep came on Heavy ground so hopefully the rain is minimal and the track stays firm. The value is undoubtedly Circulate, who ran 2nd to Macrobius at Wodonga last start. Macrobius was a winner at the Valley last week so that form has stood up and Blaike McDougall takes 2kg off.
Good little 955m sprint race here. Pretty keen to be on Kakanui each way at $6.00 and with a senior jockey booked I’d be very keen. He ran a terrific race first up at Pakenham at huge odds and was unlucky not to finish closer. He was held up until the 150m and when he got clear he really hit the line hard. His second up record is outstanding with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. He’s also never finished out of the money at this track and distance, with a win and a 3rd from two goes. Looks very well placed and if things fall his way he’ll be right there at the finish at good odds. Sam’s Image comes into this first up. He’s got two victories over Nature Strip to his name, including one at this track. Matty has a great record at this track and distance with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. The last time he raced here he coasted home to win easily and 3kg claimer Georgina Cartwright is booked to ride him tonight. She’s been riding well here on the likes of Fill The Flute recently. Belwazi had no luck last start and Reward With Return just keeps showing up and racing well.
Staying race over 2500m. Three main chances I’m interested in. Franked resumed with a dominant victory first up in Adelaide over 2100m. He was very well backed on that occasion and the money was spot on. It was only a maiden but the win suggested he was up to better races. He lines up tonight from barrier 1 with Damien Oliver on board and should be competitive in this field. The value is Duke Of Oz for trainer Jamie Edwards, who has his stable absolutely flying. He’s had four winners and a 2nd (at Flemington) from his past seven starters. This horse comes off a 5L win at Geelong on Heavy ground and prior to that ran enormous after sitting three-wide without cover. Needs a good ride but if he gets it I think he’s capable of winning this. The Weir horse Bringit is slowly finding some form and comes off consecutive placings. Drawn terribly in 14 but his horses are always a chance in races like this. Man Alive a definite chance with Williams in the saddle from the good draw.
Palazzo Vecchio gets another chance tonight after she was a tragedy beat last time out at this track and distance. If she got clear at any point in the straight she would have bolted in but she was horribly held up to the line. She gets senior jockey Damien Oliver on board tonight which means she rises 3kg in the weights but she should be too good regardless. I don’t think she wants it wet at all so she needs the rain to hold off. Rondalago was the horse that beat her last start (God bless!) at 60/1 for us. She led all the way on that occasion and with Palazzo Vecchio carrying 60.5kg tonight, she actually gets a 1.5kg weight swing. She should have lost last start but if she goes forwards and finds the rail again tonight, she’ll give a good sight once again. If it rains it suits her too; she’s got a good record on soft ground. Beetobe was disappointing last start but rises in trip to 2000m tonight which she might already be looking for. Drawn wide so she’s going to have to come from a long way back and she needs to improve on what we saw last start. Woltzing Wodka a chance.
Really only three I’m interested in to end the night. McGarrett ran the fastest final 200m of the meeting here two weeks ago in a 955m race, storming home from back in the field to be beaten a head. The step up to 1200m therefore looks suitable and with even luck he should be right in the finish. Cincinnati Red bolted in first up at Geelong and then ran enormous at Sandown last start, finishing 2nd by half-a-length after sitting three-wide without cover the trip. Williams takes over from Clayton Douglas tonight and although she’s drawn sticky, she should be very competitive. Never Again ran the second-fastest final 200m of the meeting when winning first up at Cranbourne. Drawn well with Zahra on board and this stable has been in form the past couple of weeks. Looks the value at double figure odds.
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