Friday night footy for AFL Round 16 heads to the home of footy for a matchup between Hawthorn and GWS. The Hawks have been the far more reliable team this season and will deservedly start as the clear favourites to get the job done on their home deck.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Hawks vs Giants clash below. And if you’re keen to back in our tips, consider doing so at Bet365 - one of the biggest and best sportsbooks in the world!
Hawthorn vs GWS Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 16
Hawks Sharp on Return
Hawthorn returns to the MCG this Friday night looking like a serious premiership threat. Sitting beautifully in 3rd place on the ladder, Sam Mitchell's squad has been a standout performer of the 2026 season. While they might not be blowing teams out of the water every single week, their form is undeniably strong. They are coming off a very impressive road victory against the Gold Coast Suns last week, taking the points on the back of a dominant 2nd half. Getting the job done interstate straight off their bye is the exact kind of mature performance that proves they belong in the top 4. With Jai Newcombe in elite touch after racking up 30 disposals and 10 clearances against the Suns, and forwards Nick Watson and Dylan Moore combining for 7 goals, the Hawks are perfectly positioned despite facing a few defensive disruptions at the selection table this week.
Giants Lacking Consistency
Figuring out Greater Western Sydney has been a major headache all season. They sit down in 13th spot on the ladder, entirely derailed by their own wild inconsistency. Adam Kingsley’s squad will roll out one week looking like absolute world-beaters, only to look completely lost and disorganised a few days later. They travel down to Melbourne on the back of a frustratingly tight loss to Carlton, a game where they just could not piece together four solid quarters of football. To make the road trip even tougher, they now have to reconfigure their entire forward structure with Jesse Hogan officially ruled out. Without their primary target inside 50, the Giants will be desperately searching for fresh avenues to goal to keep their faint season alive.
Recent H2H History
When you look at the recent history between these two clubs, there is a fascinating tug of war. The Giants struck the latest blow, getting the better of the Hawks in their most recent encounter. However, before that result, Hawthorn had a firm grip on the matchup, walking away with the victory in the two meetings prior. Those consecutive wins for the brown and gold were heavily built on suffocating the Giants' outside runners and dominating the clearance numbers. Given where both teams sit right now, that recent back-and-forth record adds a really nice layer of tension to this clash as both sides desperate for the four points.
What to Expect?
Hawthorn is simply the smarter play here. The Hawks are delivering the exact kind of reliable, mature football you want to back, especially after passing a tricky interstate test last week. On the other side of the coin, trusting Greater Western Sydney right now is a massive gamble given their frustrating habit of dropping their bundle from week to week. Losing Hogan is a huge structural blow for a side that already struggles to put together consistent scoring chains. Expect Hawthorn to own the midfield battle and capitalise on a depleted GWS forward line, controlling the tempo just well enough to secure the win in the 1-39 margin range.
Hawthorn 1-39
$2.12 (1 Unit)
Hawthorn vs GWS Prop Bet
It’s been a poor season for Dylan Moore by his All-Australian standards however he hit form last week against the Suns with four goals from his 13 disposals. He’s a player that when he hits form it usually holds for an extended period, so I like his chances of another big game here. Back him in for 2+ or 3+ at huge odds.
Dylan Moore 2+ Goals
$2.25
Hawthorn vs GWS Same Game Multi
Hawthorn to Win: As mentioned above in our match preview, the Hawks should be too strong at home.
Dylan Moore 2+ Goals: As mentioned above in our prop bet. Expecting another big game from him in the front half.
Harry Himmelberg 15+ Disposals: He’s had 15+ disposals in five of his last six games and remains strong value.
Hawthorn vs GWS Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Friday 26th June
Time: 7:40pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Hawthorn $1.36 vs GWS $3.17
Line: -18.5
Points: 170.5
Where to Watch Hawthorn vs GWS
You can watch the Hawks vs Giants live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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