Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Kensington on Wednesday, September 30th.
There's seven races on Wednesday's program, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail in the true position. Joshua Reed steps in for his first midweek preview and he's provided his thoughts on every race below!
Kensington Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 30th
Best Bet: Race 3 - (1) Etheridge
Best Value: Race 1 - (2) Dear Sibling
Many were not impressed by the debut run of (2) Dear Sibling but you must look past the 6 lengths 7th. He began only fairly and could not obtain a spot; therefore, he was stuck wide without cover throughout the event. He still ran a very credible 33.85 last 600m and was entitled to finish a long last, especially on debut. Drawn similar to last start and gaining the services of Nash Rawiller, I expect him to try settle midfield with cover in an attempt to switch off, mainly due to the step up to 1400m. He is way over the odds in a wide-open race. Chris Waller holds the key here with four runners with the favourite (7) Seleque who ran well last start at Warwick Farm and the promising (6) Pretty Good who looks slight overs also from the bad barrier.
I was on this bloke first-up and thought we had it until he was over run by Argenteus, but (1) Private Cheetah showed talent in his first ever run and looks set to break his maiden here. He led the race at Canterbury before being headed late but I loved the way he fought back through the line. I think he is going to excel on a Good track and does look to lead this race with ease from the sixth barrier. Both (6) Fastconi and (7) Newsreader come through the same formline with (7) Newsreader providing the main danger to our top pick.
(1) Private Cheetah
I am quite happy to play on the favourite in the race in (5) Etheridge stepping back in grade from Saturday back to mid-week. She was quite good last start at Rosehill, where Rachel King took off to put pace into the race before faltering late in the piece, finishing fifth by a length. This is tremendous form for this race as she was less than a length off runners that would be short-priced favourites here like Korcho and Cadre Du Noir. She will be fully fit now and is drawn to be competitive here. (2) Frenzied will no doubt be the pace horse in the race from out wide and looks one of the ones to run down. (4) Prince of Arragon beat Frenzied home last start and meets him 1.5kg better off with the addition of apprentice Louise Day and does look a threat once again.
(10) Mission River is ready for the 1200m now and gets to contest it in a prime position throughout. Last start at Canterbury, he chased home (11) Paquirri who is the first emergency and second favourite for this race. Both runners hit the line well but it was (10) Mission River who was making ground on (11) Paquirri late in the piece. Although (11) Paquirri was first-up, he must give our boy a 2.5kg swing which will be vital in the step-up in distance. (2) Xanthus is the early favourite and must bring Queensland form down and be competitive. Unfortunately for him, he is first-up carrying 61kg, so he will have to be at his absolute best to win this one.
I like the (1) Badoosh here despite the fact he has to carry 61.5kg. He steps back in grade from a Saturday BM 78 to a mid-week BM72, so he has earnt the weight he has to carry. On the Run to The Rose day, he was briefly held up from the 400m – 300m before getting clear and winning on the line. The form from that race has held up nicely with Attorney and Vegas Jewel both running well since. The other two in the market both emergencies from the Hawkes stable with (13) Aoraki gaining a start but drawing the 15 and still doesn’t have a rider booked and (14) American Whiskey who hasn’t gained a start yet and still has no rider. If they end up being scratched, (1) Badoosh will still be top pick, but might be too short to back.
This is a wide-open race and I have decided that going wide is the way to go. (12) Sancy looks way over the odds and is a decent each-way play here. A horse that has had a career of strong races, she stepped back to her easiest race so far in her first start this preparation. She hit the line strongly at Kembla, finishing 2.3 lengths sixth, running home in 33.32. There isn’t a lot of pace on paper, so we will be hoping that someone goes forward to take on the Waterhouse pair and boost the pace. (11) Zero to Hundred went up to Brisbane after a good debut and narrowly went down in a stakes race up there. It will be interest to see how she has come back and she justifies the short price. The other in the market is (5) Dorothy of Oz who will stroll forward and be hard to run down if the situation persists.
Another open race here, but I think (9) Invinciano will be at peak fitness here, looking to improve on her last two placings. She was very brave last start at Warwick Farm attempting to chase down the favourite Joviality and she almost saluted, going down by less than a length. She ran home in nice time and is drawn to be just as affective here. (12) Acrophobic looks the hardest to beat and will be flying late from the outside barrier.