Great day of racing coming up at Flemington this Saturday, the 11th of January! As usual, we have a full preview and betting tips for the entire card below.
Best Bet: Race 2 – (2) Rubisaki
Value Bet: Race 9 – (4) Absolute
The opening race on the card is for 2yos over 1000m and it looks a tricky affair given 6 of the 9 runners are unraced. I am happy to lean to one of the raced brigade and go with the Price & Kent trained (2) Jabali Ridge who ran a good 2nd at Flemington over 1100m on debut about a month ago. On that occasion he didn’t jump smoothly and didn’t find an ideal position in running but still ran well. The slight query is that he is drawn gate 1 which can be problematic down the straight, but he should be better for having had the race experience. Jye McNeil should be able to position him close to the speed and should he get the necessary luck it’s hard to see him not being in the finish.
Hard to go past (2) Rubisaki here. She returned from a spell at Moonee Valley in late November and was a very impressive winner over 1200m after settling well back in the field. She hasn’t run since but has had a quiet jump out at Burrumbeet to keep her up to the mark. The rise in distance to 1400m looks suitable and arguably her career best performance was over this track and distance last preparation. I would expect her to sit on the back of the speed from the inside gate and providing she gets the necessary luck will be mighty hard to hold out.
Many of these come through similar formlines in recent runs and that has led me to (2) That Girl from the Phillip Stokes yard. She ran well first up at Pakenham before a close last start 2nd at Flemington over 1200m. She comes back to 1100m here, but I don’t think that will be an issue and she appears to have found an easier race. The big query is that she is drawn the inside gate which can be a tough hurdle to overcome and will take a clever ride from Teo Nugent.
There is a distinct lack of speed here which could make this a very tactical affair and possibly a messy race. I’m quite keen on (3) Blazejowski who comes into this race first up and was recently a very impressive winner of a jump out at Cranbourne. He is a winner of two of his three first up runs and went to a new level last preparation. He is drawn out so will get clear running and has shown the ability to sprint quickly off a slow tempo. The queries are that he has never raced down the straight before and a lot of his best performances last preparation were with the sting out of the track.
Looks to be two main chances here and the market agrees with (1) Neighbourhood and (4) Thousand Wishes pretty much sharing favouritism. I am happy to be with (4) Thousand Wishes who has a significant map advantage over Neighbourhood who is likely to be near last whilst Thousand Wishes should be in the first couple in a race without a heap of pressure in it. Thousand Wishes is a winner of her last two including a win at Flemington last start. She comes back in distance to 1400m from 1600m, but I don’t think that will be any issue. John Allen rides who has been on her for her two recent wins and he will give her every chance in the run.
Happy to back (2) Future Score here who has returned in great style this preparation in two runs back. He was a strong winner first up at Pakenham over a mile before another good run at Caulfield over 1700m where he wasn’t ideally suited by racing on the fence where the winner got a break on him. The main query here is that he is drawn gate 1 so is likely to be racing on the fence again so will need luck at some stage to get into clear running. However, given there looks to be good speed here it should break the field up a bit. He should be able to settle in the first 4 or 5 and the rise to 2000m on the big track at Flemington looks ideal at this stage of his preparation.
Not one of the strongest Listed races I’ve ever seen here. Happy to have something on (8) Call It A Day who looks to get complete control in front. He is on the 7 day backup after a fair run at Caulfield last Saturday and he performs best when able to get things his own way and go for home early getting the opposition off the bit and chasing. The other horse I could have something on is (6) Amadeus who is racing well without winning recently. He will probably sit up 2nd in the run here and ran well last start over this track and distance behind the flying Yulong January. He hasn’t won for over 12 months but that is the nature of this race.
This is another race that is totally devoid of early speed. I would expect (3) Odeon to take up the running and that will give him a distinct map advantage over main rival Sure Knee. For that reason, I will have to go with him. He finally broke through for a win last start at Caulfield, his first since November 2017 and is racing well. Michael Poy replacing Craig Williams is a query as Williams tends to have a knack of getting the non-winning types to perform but this looks a very thin race.
Big field down the straight to end the day and there looks to be plenty of chances. Have got (5) Beauty on top from the McEvoy stable. She ran well first up at Caulfield after pretty much having every chance. She should find a good spot here from a middle draw and has performed well second up and down the straight at Flemington in the past. The other horse I want on my side is (4) Absolute who is having its first run for Danny O’Brien. He has shown ability in the past for his previous trainers and his recent jump out at Geelong was impressive. He is drawn wide which could be the place to be come the last race and I would be surprised if O’Brien doesn’t have the horse primed to run a big race first up on his home track.
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