AFL Round 10 kicks off on Thursday night with a cracking clash at the Gabba between Brisbane and Geelong. It’s a Grand Final rematch from a season ago and both clubs are right around the mark again in 2026. This is one you can’t miss!
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Lions vs Cats below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Brisbane vs Geelong Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 10
Lions Still the Team to Beat
Sir Doug Nicholls Round begins this Thursday at the Gabba, with the 6-3 Brisbane Lions hosting a 2025 Grand Final rematch. Sitting 4th on the ladder, the back-to-back premiers will look to replicate their 47-point demolition of the Cats in last September's 122–75 decider. The Lions remain the most prolific kicking side in the AFL, averaging 232.1 kicks per game, a style that weaponises the Gabba's unique dimensions to create a 64.4% kick rate that most teams simply cannot contain. They look to be slowing going through the gears as they set themselves for a chance of a three-peat later this year.
Normal Transmission Resumed for Geelong
Geelong (6-3) sits 5th on the ladder, landing in Brisbane following a 54-point masterclass against Collingwood that proved they remain a legitimate elite threat. The Cats are set to welcome back premiership pillars Mark Blicavs and Jack Henry, both of whom have been cleared after passing fitness tests this week. Most notably, Geelong is shedding its traditional high kick-to-handball ratio in favour of a high-octane handball game this season. This tactical shift leverages their elite runners (Holmes, Smith, Dempsey etc.) to spark rapid chains, slicing through opposition midfields and running opponents off their legs.
H2H History & Betting Trends
Recent history between these heavyweights gives the Lions a significant mental edge, having secured victory in 4 of their last 5 encounters including that clinical 2025 Grand Final win. Betting trends point toward a defensive struggle whenever these sides meet in Queensland, with the total match points frequently falling under the bookies' lines. Geelong will be desperate to fix a statistical horror run at the Gabba, where they have lost 4 of their last 5 visits while averaging a measly 55 points per game across that stretch.
What to Expect? Here’s our Best Bet!
While the Lions aren't at their absolute best right now, their 2026 form at the Gabba remains the gold standard. The Cats have struggled significantly on the road this year, highlighted by big losses to Gold Coast and Port Adelaide where they failed to handle the heat away from home. Given Brisbane's home-ground advantage and the Cats' travel woes, the Lions should have enough class to secure the points. Expect a high-pressure encounter where the final margin falls within the 1-39 range.
Brisbane By 1-39
$2.25 (1.5 Units)
Brisbane vs Geelong Prop Bet
It’s been a poor season so far for Dunkley, but this is a great opportunity for him to start to work his way into it. He loves this matchup with the Cats, collecting 25+ disposals in 7 of his last 8 matches against them. He will also have more responsibility to win the footy and accumulate, with Mullin likely tagging either McCluggage or Neale out of the game. It’s worth a flier considering his strong history vs Geelong.
Josh Dunkley 25+ Disposals
$4.00
Brisbane vs Geelong Same Game Multi
Brisbane to Win: As mentioned above, the Cats are yet to prove themselves on the road this season, and there are no tougher challenges than this. Happy to be with the Lions to win.
Jeremy Cameron 2+ Goals: Shannon Neale probably gets the Harris Andrews matchup, which means Cameron should have some good looks 1v1. He was in ripping form prior to a quiet game last week and should bounce back.
Kai Lohmann 2+ Goals: He’s averaging 2 goals per game this season and has kicked 6 over the past fortnight. Loves this matchup against the Cats too, with 2+ goals in 3 straight matches against them.
Oisin Mullin: As well as beating his direct opponent, Mullin has now found the ability to work off them and find some ball of his own. 21 touches against Daicos last week and 18 the week prior.
Same Game Odds: $5.75 at Dabble
Brisbane vs Geelong Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Thursday 14th May
Time: 7:30pm AEST
Location: Gabba, Brisbane
Odds: Brisbane $1.43 vs Geelong $2.83
Line: -15.5
Points: 184.5
Where to Watch Brisbane vs Geelong
You can watch the Lions vs Cats live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at Dabble!
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