Matchday 28 in the English Premier League presents the most important clash of the season as Liverpool and Manchester City go head-to-head in a top of the table clash. Can the defending champions claim top spot? Or will Liverpool move four points clear at the top of the table? We bring you our full preview and best bet for that fixture plus more below!
EPL 2023-24: Matchday 28 Preview & Betting Tips
Arsenal vs Brentford
Emirates Stadium, Sunday 10th March, 4:30am AEDT
Despite being in third place, Arsenal are well and truly in the title race, and are arguably the hottest team in the Premier League. Since the turn of the calendar year Arsenal have won seven consecutive league fixtures, with an aggregate score of 31-3. The Gunners last four wins have come by score lines of 6-0, 5-0, 4-1 and 6-0, which looms as a scary sight for an out of form Brentford side. The Bees are winless from their last four games after conceding an 83rd minute equaliser against Chelsea last week.
After having a solid start to the season Bretford have been in freefall since early December, having a 2-1-10 record in the Premier League since the 6th of December. Brentford have slumped to fifteenth place on the table, only six points clear of the relegation zone. Brentford have conceded 50 goals this season, the fourth most in the Premier League and face a nightmare matched up against the number one ranked attacking team in the league. The Gunners have scored a league high 68 goals, and last week produced more shots on goal (22) than Sheffield United had possession (19%).
Six of Arsenal’s last seven wins have come by two or more goals, so we'll continue to keep backing the Gunners in the handicap market. Mikel Arteta’s side have won three out of their last four Premier League fixtures against Brentford, and will be well positioned to continue their goal scoring feast against a struggling Brentford defence. Brentford have only recorded one clean sheet in the league since November, and that form simply doesn’t stack up against the most prolific team in the league.
Arsenal -2
$2.55 (1 Unit)
Aston Villa vs Tottenham
Villa Park, Monday 11th March, 12:00am AEDT
Villa Park plays host to a battle of fourth versus fifth as Tottenham travel to Birmingham to take on Aston Villa. Spurs are currently five points behind fourth placed Villa, however they do have a game in hand which means a win in this fixture would have them in prime position to jump into the top four when they play their additional game. Aston Villa come into this crucial fixture on the back of three wins in a row, despite not being at their best. Spurs bounced back from a shock defeat to Wolves with a 3-1 over Crystal Palace on Matchday 27, as three goals in eleven minutes saw Tottenham go from being 1-0 in the 77th minute, to 3-1 up in the 88th minute.
The late flurry took Tottenham to a much-needed victory, however it once again highlighted Tottenham’s inability to convert their dominance in general play onto the scoreboard. When these two sides met in November, Tottenham had eighteen shots on goal as well as 62% possession but came up short in a 2-1 defeat. Tottenham have averaged 61% possession (ranked fourth in the league), however Aston Villa who rank 7th with an average of 55% possession, have scored more goals than Tottenham this season.
This is a tough fixture to pick, so the total goals market is where we will be going in this clash. Tottenham’s last nine league games have seen at least three total goals scored, with five of those nine games hitting over 3.5 total goals. Villa’s last two games have produced score lines of 4-2 and 3-2, with another high scoring game likely given Villa’s recent struggles in defence. This will be an entertaining clash with plenty at stake as Villa look to secure their place in the top four.
Over 3.5 Goals
$1.83 (1 Unit)
Liverpool vs Manchester City
Anfield, Monday 11th March, 2:45am AEDT
The fixture we’ve all been waiting for, the biggest game of the season, the clash that will define the title race. Liverpool sit one point clear of second placed Manchester City with eleven games remaining in the season, and the winner of this fixture will go a long way towards their aspirations of winning the title. Both sides are in outstanding form since early December, with just one loss for both sides from their last twelve Premier League games.
The success of these two clubs this season has been built on their consistency at both ends of the pitch. Liverpool are the second best defence in the league (25 goals conceded), City are third (27 goals conceded). Liverpool are the second highest scoring team (64 goals scored), City are ranked 3rd (62 goals scored). Both sides also rank in the top five for possession with City 1st (66%) and Liverpool 5th (60.4%). Manchester City had the better of proceedings in the 1-1 draw when they faced off against Liverpool in November. Pep Guardiola’s side had 16 shots to Liverpool’s 8 and 60% possession, however Trent Alexander-Arnold’s goal in the 80th minute ensured Liverpool walked away with a crucial point.
Liverpool and City have played off in a multitude of season defining games over the last five years, and City have generally found a way to get the result they’ve needed en route to winning three consecutive Premier League titles. In the last eight Premier League games between Liverpool and Manchester City, the defending champions have a 3-3-1 record. Pep always finds a way to have his team rise for crucial Premier League fixtures like this, and there is bound to be another twist in what has been an enthralling title race.
Manchester City to Win
$2.20 (1.5 Units)
