The 2022 AFL season has concluded and as such, the winner of the 2022 Brownlow Medal has been determined.
Unlike most sporting events, the Brownlow is unique in that you can bet on the outcome AFTER the event has happened. I’m sure many of us could pick a winner if we watched a horse race or a football match before we placed our bets right?
Well, it’s not quite as simple as that as obviously there’s many variables in deciding Brownlow votes, none bigger than the umpire’s interpretation of the game that’s just unfolded. And if there’s one thing that most AFL fans disagree with, it’s the umpire’s interpretation!
So with that disclaimer out of the way, we look ahead to the 2022 Brownlow Medal count on Monday September 19th. Whatever happens, it’s sure to be an exciting count. Perhaps one of the best in years. There’s going to be plenty of swings during the evening, and you could argue that there’s up to six genuine contenders for the honour.
Click here for the our 2022 Brownlow leaderboard and links to our analysis for every match of every round this season.
Let’s now take a closer look at the contenders for the 2022 Brownlow.
Projected Votes: 26.5 (1st)
Potential 3 Vote Games: 7
Potential Vote Games: 11
Lachie Neale is the favourite on all Australian sports betting sites heading into the count, and we have him projected to come out on top. The 2020 Brownlow medalist is a known vote-getter and he stands out in a Brisbane side that has won plenty of games but perhaps doesn’t have a lot of big stars to steal votes. McLuggage had his moments, but Lyons and Zorko won't poll much at all.
We’ll learn more about Neale’s chances right at the start of the season in Round 1. Dan Houston had 36 touches and 2 goals, but it was in a losing effort for Port. It will be interesting to see if Houston can steal the 3 from Neale’s 31 disposal game in a winning Brisbane side.
Neale was perhaps the most consistent of our top six Brownlow contenders, polling votes all throughout the season, but he did leave the door open late in the season, so if it’s close, Neale is unlikely to poll in the final two rounds which may prove crucial.
Projected votes: 22.5 (5th)
Potential 3 Vote Games: 6
Potential Vote Games: 10
Let’s start out by declaring it’s often very difficult to split votes between Melbourne stars Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca who often play similar roles and produce similar stats. Throw big Max Gawn into the mix to take votes, and it gets even more complicated.
Oliver polled really well last year with 31 to finish 3rd in the Brownlow, and he’s won back-to-back AFL Coaches Association Player of the Year awards. He’s going to be right up there again, and if the umpire’s lean his way, then he can definitely win it.
However our projections may have leant a little more to his teammates and as such we have him 5th on our counts. Round 8 and Round 23 loom as crucial rounds for his chances. Imagine if he needs three to win it in the final round? His 30 disposal game might be enough in a big win, but Petracca (23 disposals, 2 goals) was influential!
Looks too short in the betting market for us here.
Projected votes: 24.5 (3rd)
Potential 3 Vote Games: 7
Potential Vote Games: 10
Patrick Cripps will be a runaway early leader in the Brownlow count. He then goes really cold mid season before finding a bit of form late. At one stage we had virtually declared him the winner after he was on fire at the start of the season. He had polled 6x three vote games in the first 8 rounds, and we thought he was going to win by the length of the straight. However his form dropped away as Sam Walsh started to have more influence on matches. Will he have done enough to hold on for the win?
Carlton won enough games this year, which will count in his favour, but you’d have to think Cripps will now need to steal a couple of surprise votes from games where he’s not projected in order to have enough to win.
It will be fascinating if he’s in the hunt in the final round. We’ve given him the 3 votes in Round 23 for his sensational 35 disposal game, but Carlton did lose by a point!
Projected votes: 20.5 (7th)
Potential 3 Vote Games: 5
Potential Vote Games: 11
Touk Miller had another brilliant year for the Suns and he tied with Oliver in the Coaches Association Player of the Year award. He’s very consistent but the issue might be the lack of big games in wins for the Suns.
He does stand out in the Suns team, but we have him polling 3 votes on only five occasions which won’t be enough to win the Brownlow. He picks up a number of 1 vote games and will need these to be 2 and 3 vote games if he’s to challenge the leaders.
I just can’t see him polling enough to pass the others, so happy to take him on.
Projected votes: 23 (4th)
Potential 3 Vote Games: 5
Potential Vote Games: 11
Andrew Brayshaw is a genuine contender for the 2022 Brownlow and could be the surprise packet of the count. Fremantle have enjoyed a great year and Brayshaw stands out with his pure ball winning abilities.
We have him sitting in 4th place on our counts, ahead of the likes of Oliver and Miller, so he doesn’t have to overpoll by much to be right in contention.
Round 2 will be an interesting one. Brayshaw had a massive game with 40 disposals and a 1 goal and a whopping 181 fantasy points. However the Dockers were defeated by the Saints, so if he picks up the three votes in a loss then it’s a good sign for his chances.
Has enough stand out games to attract votes, so he offers some value at $10.00 if you’re looking for a bit of a sweat at a decent price.
Projected votes: 25 (2nd)
Potential 3 Vote Games: 6
Potential Vote Games: 11
Could Christian Petracca be the one to upset the leading contenders and win the 2022 Brownlow Medal?
It’s definitely possible.
Petracca doesn’t collect as many touches as the likes of Oliver, Neale or Miller, but it’s hard to argue that his influence on matches isn’t greater. Petracca had a stand out season, particularly early in the year. He definitely had some physical battles during the season, but he ended with some solid games in the last six rounds. We don’t have him polling the threes during this time, so if he can pinch a three during this period, then he’s right in it.
The umpires will need to lean his way over Oliver and Gawn, and if they do then he’s a huge chance of an upset and looks a great value bet at $10.50 at Betfair.
