Super Saturday in the AFL continues with a potentially one-sided matchup between Hawthorn and North Melbourne in the Apple Isle. The Hawks have been dominant down south for a long time now and will be confident they can secure another four vital points in this one
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Hawks vs Kangaroos below, with odds thanks to PuntSport!
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 21
Hawks Eyeing Top Two
Hawthorn returns to their Tasmanian fortress at UTAS Stadium looking to cement their spot at the pointy end of the ladder. Sam Mitchell's men have enjoyed a phenomenal season, currently sitting in third position with 13 wins, one draw, and five losses. A victory here is crucial as they push for a top-two finish and a home qualifying final. The Hawks will be injected with some fresh energy this weekend, with 18-year-old emerging forward Aidan Schubert confirmed to make his AFL debut. He becomes Hawthorn's eighth debutant of the 2026 season, marking one of two changes to the side.
Roos Spiralling After Brief Reprieve
North Melbourne travels down to Launceston desperate to snap a four-game losing streak. While the Kangaroos managed three consecutive victories through June against West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon, those wins came against fellow bottom-half opposition and masked deeper structural issues. Their form has completely fallen away over the last month when faced with quality opponents. They arrive at Round 21 sitting 13th on the ladder with an 8-11 record, having suffered consecutive defeats to Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne, and most recently, a 31-point loss to St Kilda at Marvel Stadium. They will need to drastically improve their defensive structures if they are to challenge a polished Hawthorn outfit on the road.
Recent History Belongs to Hawthorn
When it comes to head-to-head records, this matchup has been remarkably one-sided. Hawthorn holds a dominant psychological edge over the Kangaroos, having won their last seven consecutive encounters. A closer look at the last five results highlights just how vast the gulf in class has been:
2025: Hawthorn 150 defeated North Melbourne 65
2024: Hawthorn 170 defeated North Melbourne 46
2024: Hawthorn 113 defeated North Melbourne 68
2023: Hawthorn 88 defeated North Melbourne 40
2023: Hawthorn 80 defeated North Melbourne 61
That ruthless track record, highlighted by an average winning margin of over 64 points across those last five meetings, proves the Hawks know exactly how to break down the Kangaroos.
Match Prediction and Best Bet
This is a heavily mismatched fixture between a genuine premiership contender and a side struggling for answers in the back half of the season. Given how poor North Melbourne have been against top-level opposition this year, there is always the risk of a one-sided blowout, making it difficult to approach the total points market with high confidence. However, the historical data in Launceston provides a very clear trend. Over the past five years, UTAS Stadium has hosted 19 matches, producing an average total score of just 160.5 points per game. The difficult conditions at the venue, particularly the notorious wind, frequently suppress scoring and turn matches into scrappy, ground-level contests. While the Hawks certainly have the firepower to score heavily, those tricky Tasmanian conditions make the unders the most logical play.
Under 177.5 Points
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Prop Bet
Admittedly, there isn’t great value on offer in the prop markets for this match as the bookies have really put the squeeze on for whatever reason. However, after scouring the markets one of the best bets value looks to be LDU for 25+. He always turns it on in Tassie where he’s collected 25+ in each of his last 11 appearances. If he escapes a tag, then he should get there. 28 & 26 against the Hawks in his last two.
Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals
$2.29
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Same Game Multi
Luke Parker 25+ Disposals: He’s had a strong season down back for the Roos and gets a lot of cheap ball. He’s had 25+ in five of his last six matches.
Josh Ward 25+ Disposals: He was involved in everything last week and now looks to have the full trust of the coach. 33 last week and has had 25+ in two of his last three against North.
Aidan Schubert Anytime Goal Scorer: He’s a first gamer and if the game follows the likely script, his teammates will be feeding him to ensure he hits the scoreboard. 24 goals at VFL level this season.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Saturday 1st August
Time: 1:35pm AEST
Location: UTAS Stadium, Tasmania
Odds: Hawthorn $1.11 vs North Melbourne $6.70
Line: -39.5
Points: 177.5
Where to Watch Hawthorn vs North Melbourne
You can watch the Hawks vs Kangaroos live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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