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2022 AFL Brownlow Medal: Round 1 Votes

March 21st 2022, 4:21pm, By: Brownlow Bandit

AFL Brownlow Round 1 Votes

Footy is back and so are we with our 2022 AFL Brownlow Medal coverage. Once again, we’ll bring our followers the most comprehensive Brownlow Medal tips, analysis and information, to make your 2022 Brownlow Medal night a profitable one.

As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the season, along with our vote allocations using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.

2022 AFL Brownlow Round 1 Overview

Christian Petracca, Patrick Cripps and Matt Rowell are certain to poll the three votes in Round 1.

Clayton Oliver and Patrick Dangerfield are also likely to be in the votes.

A few of the games may see the three votes go to the player of the losing side which is always a little tricky to predict. We also saw a couple of rookies have massive games - will the umpires know who they are yet?

Moneyball

 

2022 AFL Brownlow Medal Votes - Round 1

Melbourne 14.13.97 def Western Bulldogs 11.5.71

The season kicked off with the Grand Final rematch between the Dees and the Dogs. It was a back-and-forth affair before Melbourne ran out winners. Much like his Grand Final performance, Christian Petracca was the star with 38 disposals, 9 clearances, 2 goals and a massive 869m gained, and a certain 3 Brownlow votes to start the season. Clayton Oliver (32 disposals, 6 clearances) is probably the only other Demon who will poll votes. Jack Macrae (39 disposals, 11 clearances), Bailey Smith (33 disposals, 11 tackles, 8 clearances) and Tim English (20 disposals, 6 marks, 18 hitouts, 8 clearances) are in with a chance at the minor votes.

Christian Petracca - 3
Clayton Oliver - 2
Jack Macrae - 0.5
Bailey Smith - 0.5

Carlton 14.17.101 def Richmond 11.10.76

The Blues have a victory in Round 1! It’s been a while. They were brilliantly led by Patrick Cripps (30 disposals, 8 clearances, 3 goals) who will be hard to stop for the 3 votes, while he was ably supported in the middle by Matthew Kennedy (33 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and Adam Cerra (30 disposals, 6 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal). Sam Docherty made a fabulous return and might be a chance for a vote for his 26 disposals, 6 marks and 1 goal.

Patrick Cripps - 3
Matthew Kennedy - 2
Adam Cerra - 0.5
Sam Docherty - 0.5

St.Kilda 12.13.85 def Collingwood 15.12.102

The Pies ran over the top of the Saints and it was new recruit Patrick Lipinksi who was the difference with 30 disposals and 1 goal. Jordan De Goey (27 disposals, 2 goals) and Nick Daicos on debut (27 disposals) were also very good. The Saints might have found a good one with Jack Hayes (18 disposals, 10 marks, 3 goals) as he and Rowan Marshall (21 disposals, 25 hitouts, 6 clearances) got the better of Brodie Grundy.

Patrick Lipinski - 3
Jack Hayes - 2
Jordan De Goey - 1

Geelong 20.18.138 def Essendon 11.6.72

Geelong were far too good for a poor Essendon, but could an Essendon rookie collect 3 votes on debut? Nic Martin kicked 5 goals from 27 disposals and 10 marks and was arguably best on ground. His main threat is likely to be Patrick Dangerfield (31 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) who was very good on the winning team. Zach Merrett (39 disposals, 7 marks), Tim Hawkins (17 disposals, 8 marks, 4 goals) and Tyson Stengle (20 disposals, 4 goals) are all in contention for the minor votes.

Nic Martin - 2.5
Patrick Dangerfield - 2.5
Tom Hawkins - 0.5
Tyson Stengle - 0.5

GWS 13.14.92 def Sydney 17.10.112

A stunning second half from Luke Parker saw him claim the Brett Kirk Medal for best afield in the Swans win over the Giants. Parker turned the game with 5 goals from 21 disposals in a match-winning performance. Isaac Heeney (25 disposals, 6 tackles, 6 clearances, 3 goals) and Oli Florent (20 disposals, 3 goals) were also superb for the Swans. Tom Green was a beast for the Giants with 31 disposals, 7 tackles, 8 clearances and 2 goals in his best game.

Luke Parker - 3
Isaac Heeney - 2
Oli Florent - 0.5
Tom Green - 0.5

Brisbane 11.14.80 def Port Adelaide 10.9.69

Brisbane took a while to get going before running over the top of Port in a physical Round 1 clash. Dan Houston was best-on-ground in a losing effort with a massive 36 disposals, 12 marks and 2 goals. However it was Lachie Neale that willed the Lions to the win with 31 disposals, 7 marks, 6 tackles and 7 clearances. Marcus Adams (20 disposals, 11 marks) was a rock in defence while Joe Daniher (4 goals, 11 disposals, 7 marks) provided a target up forward.

Dan Houston - 2.5
Lachie Neale - 2.5
Marcus Adams - 0.5
Joe Daniher - 0.5

Hawthorn 11.12.78 def North Melbourne 8.10.58

Two teams that aren’t expected to challenge in 2022 put their talented youngsters on display with the Hawks edging away for the win. Tricky game for votes, with the big ball winners on the Kangaroos side, but the forwards of Hawthorn setting up the victory. Jack Gunston (18 disposals, 8 marks, 3 goals) and Mitch Lewis (13 disposals, 9 marks, 3 goals) were the difference between the sides, while Changkuoth Jiath (24 disposals, 5 marks) roamed across half-back. Luke Davies-Uniacke (27 disposals, 9 tackles) and Jy Simpkin (29 disposals, 5 tackles, 2 goals) won plenty of ball in the middle for the Roos, while Luke McDonald (27 disposals, 12 marks) was arguably their best.

Jack Gunston - 3
Luke McDonald - 1
Changkuoth Jiath - 1
Jy Simpkin - 1

Adelaide 12.10.82 def by Fremantle 11.17.83

A thriller in Adelaide with Freo coming from behind in the last quarter to pinch a dramatic one-point victory. Andrew Brayshaw was Freo’s best with 28 disposals, 7 tackles and 8 clearances but the best players on ground were arguably with the Crows. Josh Rachele was electric on debut as the #6 draft pick kicked 5 goals from 14 touches, while Ben Keays (37 disposals) and Matt Crouch (30 disposals, 6 clearances) were influential on the ball.

Ben Keays - 2.5
Josh Rachele - 2.5
Andrew Brayshaw - 1

West Coast 12.8.80 def by Gold Coast 16.11.107

The Eagles were undermanned and it told in the end as the Suns ran over them in the final quarter. Matt Rowell was back to his best with 33 disposals, 6 tackles and 9 clearances, while Touk Miller (29 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and Brayden Fiorini (24 disposals) won plenty of ball. Up forward, Izak Rankine was brilliant with 23 disposals, 6 marks and 4 goals. Luke Foley (24 disposals, 8 marks) tried hard in defence for the Eagles.

Matt Rowell - 3
Izak Rankine - 2
Touk Miller - 1

 

Moneyball

 

For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.

If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.

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