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2021 AFL Brownlow Medal: 3 Vote Games Betting Tips

September 14th 2021, 1:29pm, By: Brownlow Bandit

Brownlow Medal 3 Vote Games

We continue our free Brownlow Medal content with a deep dive into the 3 Vote Games betting markets. In these markets, you can bet on who you think will get the three votes in specific games. It’s very tempting to jump head first into the 3 Vote Games markets. With betting markets up for every match of every round, you could have bets riding for every match of the season if you wanted! Try to be selective and pick those matches where the odds offer some value compared to your own ratings. There’s no prizes for whacking a Marcus Bontempelli at $1.05 every game! We’ve gone through our own analysis and compared the betting markets to our own Brownlow vote predictions, to find a few favourable spots for betting into the 3 Vote Games markets. Some are just lock and load, while others are certainly a little more speculative!

Brownlow 3 Vote Games Betting Tips

Best Locks

Round 6 - Jaeger O’Meara - $1.72 at Sportsbet

Really like this spot for O’Meara as there’s no Mitchell or Wingard to threaten in this game. The Hawks came from behind to beat the Crows, and while Laird and Keays were good, they weren’t exceptional, and the Crows didn’t win the game. O’Meara has to fend off bags of goals from Koschitzke and Thilthorpe, which I think he does. $1.70 looks a good price to go whack.

Jaegar O'Meara - Round 6

$1.72

Round 12 - Darcy Parish - $1.85 at Sportsbet

Yes Richmond won the game, and Dusty Martin was enormous (27 disposals, 3 goals) but Darcy Parish won the medal for his club record 44 disposals. Any time a player wins the medal, that’s good enough for me and usually good enough for the umpires. I think $1.70 is a big price for a medal winner and 44 disposals, even in a loss.

Darcy Parish - Round 12

$1.85

Round 15 - Tom Mitchell - $1.60 at Sportsbet

40 disposals for Mitchell and the Hawks win. It’s pretty much as simple as that. A couple of the Hawks young defenders were good with Day (29 disposals, 7 marks) and Scrimshaw (28 disposals, 6 marks) but when Mitchell is racking them up, especially as the only dominant midfielder, he’s sure to get the votes.

Tom Mitchell - Round 15

$1.60

Round 16 - Sam Walsh - $1.75 at Ladbrokes

This game ticks all the boxes for Walsh to poll the 3 votes. Carlton won, Walsh (25 disposals) kicked the match winning goal, and there are no other real threats for votes on his team. Brayshaw and Darcy are next best but don’t think they did enough in a losing team to displace Walsh.

Sam Walsh - Round 16

$1.75

Round 19 - Jarryd Lyons - $1.60 at Ladbrokes

The Lions came from behind to win and Jarryd Lyons won the medal for 33 disposals. Sometimes the Lions can be tricky if all the mids fire, but Lyons was a standout with ruckman Oscar McInerney next best. Again, it’s the simple formula of following the medal winner. $1.60 is overs!

Jarryd Lyons - Round 19

$1.60

TAB Brownlow

Best Value Bets

Round 1 - Steven May - $3.00 at Sportsbet

Let's start off the Brownlow count with a Round 1 tip. It's going to be tough for May to poll this season against the star-studded Demons midfield, but way back in Round 1, he was superb in defence with 24 disposals and 8 marks. Petracca and Oliver were both good, without being dominant as the win was really setup from defence with Lever and May. Not overly confident but the $3.00 offers some value.

Round 5 - Brandan Parfitt - $3.50 at Ladbrokes

There was $4.00 around at Sportsbet as we were writing this article but that was quickly smashed into $1.85. Hopefully the $3.50 is still available for you at Ladbrokes by the time you read this. We have him as clearly best on ground against the Roos with 34 disposals. Menegola had 28 disposals and 2 goals but he was our massive leak last season where the umpires didn’t have a clue who he was. Tom Stewart is going to be in the votes with 30 disposals and 11 marks, but this looks a great spot to smash Parfitt.

Brandan Parfitt - Round 5

$3.50

Round 18 - Cam Guthrie - $3.75 at Sportsbet

I think the market has this one wrong. Patrick Dangerfield is favourite, and while he was good, his 22 disposals and 3 goals is not a clear BOG performance. In fact, I didn’t even give him a vote! If we trust that analysis, then the price on the others has to be value. Cam Guthrie polled really well last year, so I really like his 35 disposals to attract the 3 votes here at a value price.

Cam Guthrie - Round 18

$3.75

 

Best Long Shots

Round 2 - Scott Pendlebury - $9.00 at Sportsbet

Any time Pendles is in the votes, you know he’s a chance for 3 as one of the most respected players in the game. Against Carlton, Pendles collected 30 disposals and will be competing against Adams (29 disposals, 1 goal), while Crisp and De Goey are outside chances. At the price, Pendlebury is worth a nibble.

Round 18 - Touk Miller - $6.00 at Sportsbet

This one is a little cheeky but there is method to the madness. Normally I wouldn’t be taking on The Bont when he picks up 36 disposals in a winning team. However he had a record 15 clangers here. Do umpires pay attention to that? Maybe, maybe not. But if you want to take a punt that they do actually pay attention, then Touk Miller offers some value. He was brilliant with 38 disposals. It will be tough in a losing team against the might of the Bulldogs ball magnets, but Miller was the best player on the ground in my opinion, so it’s worth a spec.

Round 21 - Alex Neal-Bullen - $41 at Sportsbet

It was a game that copped torrential rain and was even paused by lightning. Petracca, Harmes and Yeo all racked up possessions but Alex Neal-Bullen showed incredible skill with the wet ball and hit the scoreboard that may stand out for the umpires. He picked up 19 disposals, 8 tackles and 2 goals, and we rated that worth 2.5 votes alongside Petracca for best afield. Not the worst $41 pop you’ll ever see!

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