A full schedule of nine games delighted us in Round 15 and it was a round where the cream rose to the top. Marcus Bontempelli put in another amazing game, and while he probably deserved six Brownlow votes, the most he can get is three! And while the Bont is all the hype in the media, as well as the Brownlow betting markets, we don't actually have Bontempelli in front in our counts! Bontempelli is into $2.50 favourtism to win the 2021 Brownlow Medal, so there might be some value around some of the other contenders, with Ollie Wines, Clayton Oliver, Darcy Parish and Tom Mitchell all possibly polling votes in Round 15.
Check out our analysis and 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 15 below!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 15
Brisbane 13.16.94 def Geelong 7.8.50
The Lions were super impressive as they dismantled the Cats all over the ground. Dayne Zorko returned to the side and led from the front with 24 disposals, 10 marks and 12 tackles. Oscar McInerney (18 disposals, 6 marks, 35 hitouts, 9 clearances) won the ruck battle while Charlie Cameron (14 disposals, 6 marks, 3 goals) was lively up forward. Although the stats sheet doesn’t suggest it, Marcus Adams (13 disposals, 5 marks) did a tremendous job on Tom Hawkins. Cam Guthrie (34 disposals, 5 clearances) was best for the Cats.
Dayne Zorko - 3
Oscar McInerney - 2
Cam Guthrie - 0.5
Marcus Adams - 0.5
Richmond 2.10.22 def by St.Kilda 9.8.62
The Saints were all over the Tigers in a big upset on Friday night. Luke Dunstan (32 disposals, 11 clearances, 1 goal), Jack Steele (25 disposals, 9 tackles, 9 clearances) and Brad Crouch (25 disposals, 7 tackles) were superb in the midfield and they were well-served by Paddy Ryder (13 disposals, 7 marks, 28 hitouts) who dominated the ruck contests. Nick Vlastuin (24 disposals, 7 marks) tried hard in an overworked backline for the Tigers.
Luke Dunstan - 3
Jack Steele - 1.5
Paddy Ryder - 1.5
Collingwood 12.7.79 def by Fremantle 14.7.91
A see-sawing contest at the MCG saw the Dockers kick two late goals to pinch the victory. David Mundy (28 disposals, 6 tackles) and Andrew Brayshaw (24 disposals, 1 goal) were best for the Dockers, but the Pies had plenty of ball winners on the ground. Taylor Adams (32 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances) and Brodie Grundy (22 disposals, 7 marks, 27 hitouts, 2 goals) didn’t miss a beat on their returns, while Jack Crisp (30 disposals, 9 marks) and Brayden Maynard (27 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles) also won plenty of the ball. Potentially a tricky game for Brownlow votes.
David Mundy - 3
Taylor Adams - 2
Brodie Grundy - 0.5
Andrew Brayshaw - 0.5
North Melbourne 9.18.72 def Gold Coast 9.9.63
North Melbourne are enjoying playing more regularly in Hobart as they handled the windy conditions better than the Suns to record their second win of the season. Ben Cunnington (28 disposals, 5 tackles, 8 clearances) and Jy Simpkin (30 disposals, 5 clearances, 1 goal) were again best for the Roos, while Tood Goldstein (21 disposals, 44 hitotus, 6 clearances) won the ruck battle with ease. Cameron Zurhaar (24 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals) also provided plenty of spark up forward. Touk Miller must have sore shoulders from carrying this Suns rabble as he racked up 30 disposals and 1 goal.
Ben Cunnington - 3
Jy Simpkin - 2
Todd Goldstein - 0.5
Cam Zurhaar - 0.5
Port Adelaide 12.9.81 def Sydney 10.11.71
The Power survived a Sydney surge in the final quarter to emerge triumphant in a massive game for finals aspirations. Travis Boak was huge with 29 disposals, 8 tackles, 6 clearances and 1 goal, while Ollie Wines was also influential with 29 disposals and 8 clearances. For the Swans, Lance Franklin (16 disposals, 4 goals) was electric while Luke Parker (34 disposals, 6 marks, 7 clearances, 1 goal) and Callum Mills (30 disposals, 6 marks, 10 clearances) were the leading ball winners on the ground.
Travis Boak - 3
Ollie Wines - 2
Luke Parker - 0.5
Lance Franklin - 0.5
Essendon 8.9.57 def by Melbourne 9.14.68
The Bombers took it right up to the ladder leaders, but the Dees willed themselves over the line. Clayton Oliver (34 disposals, 6 marks, 7 clearances) and Christian Petracca (26 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goals) were once again the key movers for the Dees, but the three votes may go to Essendon’s Zach Merrett. It was a huge game from Merrett who had 41 disposals, 5 marks and 8 tackles. He had great support from Darcy Parish (37 disposals, 5 marks, 8 clearances) and Kyle Langford (29 disposals, 6 tackles, 5 clearances) but it wasn’t enough to get the points.A big game for the Brownlow contenders!
Zach Merrett - 3
Christian Petracca - 1
Clayton Oliver - 1
Darcy Parish - 1
GWS Giants 11.6.72 def by Hawthorn 13.12.90
The Giants have again blown an opportunity to get into the top 8 with a poor loss to lowly Hawthorn. Tom Mitchell (40 disposals, 11 marks) ran around by himself, with Daniel Howe (31 disposals, 9 marks), Jack Scrimshaw (28 disposals, 6 marks) and Will Day (29 disposals, 7 marks) all having a big day. However it was Dylan Moore who sealed the win with two late goals among his 20 disposals and 4 goals for the day. For the Giants, Lachie Whitfield (32 disposals, 6 marks, 6 tackles) was best.
Tom Mitchell - 3
Jack Scrimshaw - 1
Dylan Moore - 1
Lachie Whitfield - 1
Betting note: You can get as much as $75 at Betfair right now for Tom Mitchell to win the Brownlow. Yes, it's a long shot, but he's hit super form and he's a proven vote getter. The Hawks are improving and he can poll in games even when they lose. We currently have Mitchell in the Top 5 on our leaderboard, six votes off the pace. Not the worst $75 shot in the world.
West Coast 6.7.43 def by Western Bulldogs 13.20.98
The Bulldogs ran wild in the West with a thumping win over the Eagles. Marcus Bontempelli was immense with 29 disposals, 7 tackles, 10 clearances and 3 goals, including a magical snap from the boundary in the final quarter. The Bont should pick up another three Brownlow votes here and has firmed even further in Brownlow betting markets. Bailey Smith (31 disposals, 5 tackles, 6 clearances, 2 goals) was back to his best, whie Jack Macrae (32 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) continued his great season. Aaron Naughton lit it up in the last quarter and ended the day with 15 disposals, 9 marks and 4 goals. Nic Naitanui played a lone hand for the Eagles with 20 disposals, 8 clearances and 39 hitouts.
Marcus Bontempelli - 3
Bailey Smith - 2
Aaron Naughton - 1
Carlton 12.11.83 def Adelaide 10.13.73
The Blues bounced back with a hard-fought win over the Crows. Sam Walsh was well held last week, but he responded with 38 disposals and 7 marks in a best-on-ground effort. Zac Williams (26 disposals, 1 goal) had his best game for his new club, while Jacob Weitering (22 disposals, 16 marks) was a rock in defence. Rory Laird (33 disposals, 8 clearances) and Ben Keays (30 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) tried hard in the losing effort.
Sam Walsh - 3
Rory Laird - 2
Jacob Weitering - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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