Before You Bet
2026 Brownlow Medal Market Analysis
We compare the BYB projected Brownlow Medal count with some of the major alternative Brownlow betting markets, including leaders at key stages of the season, most three-vote games and votes across the final eight rounds.
The Before You Bet Brownlow count assigns projected umpire votes to every AFL match throughout the season. The tables below use those projections to compare to Brownlow Medal markets currently offered by Betfair Australia. Half-votes are used in the BYB count where a vote is considered particularly close between two players.
BYB projected Brownlow vote totals after the completion of Round 6 compared with Betfair's Leader After Round 6 market.
Nick Daicos projects to lead the count early with three best-on-ground performances in the first 6 rounds of the season. It's hard to see this being challenged. Both Marcus Bontempelli and Zak Butters have a potential extra 0.5 to earn if the votes go their way, but they'll still be short of the mark set by Daicos.
With such short odds, and a chance of a potential tie, this is not a market worth getting involved with.
| Rank |
Player |
BYB Votes |
BETFAIR Odds |
| 1 |
Nick Daicos |
12 |
$1.63 |
| 2 |
Zak Butters |
10.5 |
$5.00 |
| 3 |
Bailey Smith |
10 |
$5.80 |
| 4 |
Marcus Bontempelli |
9.5 |
$19.00 |
| 5 |
Christian Petracca |
8.5 |
$251.00 |
BYB projected Brownlow vote totals after the completion of Round 10 compared with Betfair's Leader After Round 10 market.
This is an interesting market with three players who are all projected to be very close on the leaderboard at this stage. We have Bont ahead by a vote or two, but the market is putting him behind Daicos and Smith. Again, there's a high chance of a tie which kills off any potential value.
| Rank |
Player |
BYB Votes |
BETFAIR Odds |
| 1 |
Marcus Bontempelli |
16.5 |
$3.60 |
| =2 |
Nick Daicos |
15 |
$2.75 |
| =2 |
Bailey Smith |
15 |
$3.00 |
| 4 |
Zak Butters |
14.5 |
$9.00 |
| =5 |
Max Holmes |
11.5 |
$110.00 |
| =5 |
Christian Petracca |
11.5 |
$110.00 |
BYB projected Brownlow vote totals after the completion of Round 15 compared with Betfair's Leader After Round 15 market.
Nick Daicos should be taking control of the count by this point, and it's hard to make an argument against that. Value in Heeney in our counts but would have to take a big swing in his direction for him to be leading.
| Rank |
Player |
BYB Votes |
BETFAIR Odds |
| 1 |
Nick Daicos |
24 |
$1.43 |
| 2 |
Marcus Bontempelli |
22 |
$3.75 |
| 3 |
Isaac Heeney |
20 |
$51.00 |
| 4 |
Bailey Smith |
19 |
$10.50 |
| 5 |
Max Holmes |
17 |
$251.00 |
Number of matches in which BYB has projected each player to receive the maximum three Brownlow votes.
It's hard to see anyone but Nick Daicos winning this market and his price indicates that. Some value in Jai Newcombe's price if you can find a swing in his direction somehow.
| Rank |
Player |
BYB 3-Vote Games |
BETFAIR Odds |
| 1 |
Nick Daicos |
9 |
$1.03 |
| 2 |
Jai Newcombe |
7 |
$101.00 |
| =3 |
Marcus Bontempelli |
6 |
$23.00 |
| =3 |
Bailey Smith |
6 |
$26.00 |
| =5 |
Patrick Cripps |
5 |
$201.00 |
| =5 |
Isaac Heeney |
5 |
$501.00 |
BYB projected votes across Rounds 17–24 only.
The rush home by Errol Gulden is going to be a thing of beauty, but can he do enough to upset the top two in the market? Nick Daicos and Izak Rankine also finished the year superbly so it's hard to see them being missed by the umpires during that stretch. Gulden is the value but he is also pretty capped at the 15 votes.
| Rank |
Player |
BYB Votes R17–24 |
BETFAIR Odds |
| 1 |
Izak Rankine |
17 |
$2.20 |
| =2 |
Nick Daicos |
15 |
$2.00 |
| =2 |
Errol Gulden |
15 |
$23.00 |
| 4 |
Will Ashcroft |
11.5 |
$10.00 |
| 5 |
Bailey Smith |
10.5 |
$23.00 |
BYB Brownlow Market Analysis
These tables compare our projected count with the current betting markets rather than treating bookmaker prices as predictions. The next step is to identify where the BYB count differs most significantly from the market and assess which prices may offer the strongest Brownlow betting opportunities.
