Just the six games of AFL during Round 12 of the 2021 AFL season but that was enough for the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Dustin Martin Darcy Parish and Clayton Oliver to add to their Brownlow Medal tallies. The Bont is still the favourite with bookmakers and we've got him sliding into second spot on the leaderboard after another three votes in Round 12. Meanwhile Darcy Parish is the form player of the competition right now and has firmed into $10 with most sports books with another best-on-ground effort.
Check out our analysis and 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 12 below!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 12
Melbourne 14.13.97 def Brisbane 11.9.75
There’s no disputing it now. Melbourne are the best team in the AFL competition and the team to beat this season after they have knocked off the Dogs and the Lions in consecutive weeks. They trailed by 20 points at half time, but fought back to win, led by the brilliance of Christian Petracca (26 disposals, 6 tackles, 9 clearances, 2 goals) and Clayton Oliver (25 disposals, 8 clearances). Max Gawn (31 hitouts, 17 disposals, 1 goal) was the dominant big man while Steven May (15 disposals, 7 marks) was important at half back. Dayne Zorko (22 disposals, 10 tackles, 5 clearances 1 goal) and Jarryd Lyons (28 disposals, 8 tackles, 6 clearances) were tireless for the Lions, while Zac Bailey (19 disposals, 5 marks, 4 goals) was the leading forward on the ground.
Christian Petracca - 3
Dayne Zorko - 2
Jarryd Lyons - 0.5
Clayton Oliver - 0.5
Sydney 13.14.92 def St.Kilda 12.11.83
The Saints had their chances but couldn’t snatch the win away from the Swans who continue their run towards the finals. Luke Parker (27 disposals, 1 goal) and Callum Mills (26 disposals, 5 tackles) were steady in the middle for the Swans but the best players on the ground were arguably from the Saints. Jack Steele (31 disposals, 9 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and Brad Crouch (38 disposals, 7 tackles, 7 clearances) were immense while Jack Higgins (23 disposals, 12 marks, 1 goal) was electric but wasteful up forward. Tim Membrey (20 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) floated forward and back with good effect as well.
Jack Steele - 2.5
Brad Crouch - 2.5
Jack Higgins - 0.5
Luke Parker - 0.5
Adelaide 10.13.73 def by Collingwood 12.6.78
The Pies are back on the winners’ list as they snuck home against the Crows. Jamie Elliott returned to the side from injury and made an enormous difference with 6 goals, including 4 goals in the first term, from 14 disposals and 6 marks. Jack Crisp (31 disposals, 9 marks) battled in the midfield while Caleb Poulter (20 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) played his best game on a wing. For the Crows, Rory Laird (40 disposals, 6 marks, 5 tackles, 7 clearances) was busy, with support from Paul Seedsman (27 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals) and Ben Keays (33 disposals, 6 tackles, 5 clearances).
Jamie Elliott - 3
Rory Laird - 2
Jack Crisp - 1
Essendon 12.12.84 def by Richmond 19.9.123
The Bombers hit the lead in the final quarter but remarkably, the Tigers hit the turbo button to storm home in the last ten minutes and win in a game that was closer than the final scoreboard suggests. Darcy Parish won the medal for best-on-ground and it’s hard to argue with a club record 44 disposals, 8 marks, 5 tackles and 11 clearances. However it was Dusty Martin who was the difference with his 27 disposals, 5 clearances and 3 goals willing the Tigers over the line. Mabior Chol (19 disposals, 6 marks, 19 hitouts) played his best game for the club and Shai Bolton (21 disposals, 3 goals) kicked a brilliant late goal to seal the game. Zach Merrett (32 disposals, 7 tackles, 5 clearances) and Kyle Langford (28 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) were also good for the Bombers.
Darcy Parish - 3
Dustin Martin - 2
Mabior Chol - 1
Carlton 10.13.73 def by West Coast 14.11.95
The Eagles were battered by injuries but their season isn’t done with just yet as they overcame the Blues at the SCG. Liam Ryan took a Mark of the Year contender on his way to 4 goals from 17 disposals and 8 marks and was the difference between the two sides. Dom Sheed (32 disposals, 8 marks, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and Andrew Gaff (30 disposals, 5 marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) were also good for the Eagles in the middle of the ground. The bulk of the load for the Blues was again left to Sam Walsh who was brilliant with 30 disposals, 11 marks and a goal.
Liam Ryan - 3
Dom Sheed - 2
Sam Walsh - 1
Fremantle 9.11.65 def by Western Bulldogs 13.15.93
The Dockers were in the battle but a string of late injuries saw the Dogs pull clear in the final quarter to get the win. Again, a lot was left to their best players with Marcus Bontempelli (27 disposals, 5 tackles, 7 clearances, 2 goals), Jack Macrae (35 disposals, 6 marks) and Lachie Hunter (27 disposals, 1 goal) influential in the win. Aaron Naughton could’ve been among the votes if he had his kicking boots on with 1 goal, 5 behinds, from 19 disposals and 13 marks. David Mundy (30 disposals, 7 marks and 8 clearances) tried hard for the Dockers.
Marcus Bontempelli - 3
Lachie Hunter - 2
Jack Macrae - 0.5
Aaron Naughton - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
