The second game on a Finals edition of NRL Super Saturday heads to Sydney for a blockbuster Elimination Final between the Sharks and Cowboys. Momentum is everything at this stage of the season and both sides previous performances were questionable. This contest will come down to which team can bounce back to the positive displays which has them qualified for the Finals in season 2026. Before You Bet is here to help with a detailed look at what is ahead in this contest.
Sharks vs Cowboys Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Elimination Final
Stumbling towards the Finals
It’s been a rough few weeks for the Sharks, winning just 1 of their past 5 matches. They took the option of resting several players in their Round 27 match against the Storm and were unsurprisingly defeated 24-20 at home. Despite this result, the spirit they showed to compete with a capable opponent highlights the belief within this team. It took a brilliant play in the dying seconds of the match for the visitors to prevail. They will be disappointed that they gave away an 18-12 HT lead but there are positive signs. With 48% they completed at 75%, ran for 8.4m per carry, and made 528 PCM’s. Defensively, they must be better as they missed a total of 50 tackles. Undoubtedly, their focus was on this match ahead of Round 27 and a week to rest to key players will serve them well.
Limping towards the Finals
It’s been an inconsistent year for the Cowboys, perfectly highlighted by their 50-30 home loss to the Raiders last week to finish the regular season. Unable to alter their position on the ladder, a better showing was expected but they failed to deliver. The match was meant to be a positive launching pad towards the Finals. It was anything but that as they conceded 8 tries, allowed 8 line breaks, and missed 48 tackles. Thankfully, they can take confidence from making 10.9m per carry, 488 PCM’s, and 7 line breaks. Confidence will only take them so far though; a better standard of execution is demanded from teams who wish to achieve success at the business end of the season.
Stats that matter
- The Sharks have won 7 of the past 10 against the Cowboys but were unsuccessful in Round 8, losing 46-34. Both teams have a negative record at this ground, but the Sharks (48%) do have an edge over the Cowboys (35%).
- In the past 5 matches between these two sides, 3 games have been decided by 20 points or more. This has the average margin of victory sitting at 20 points. In the same number of matches, the average total points scored is 54.4 points.
- The Sharks are the superior team on both sides of the ball this season. They score 28ppg n attack and concede 21ppg defensively. The Cowboys score 23ppg in attack but leak 27ppg in defence.
Key players return to spark each team’s attack
Both sides receive a huge boost to spark their attack into action, but the different will likely come down to which team improves defensively. The Sharks have Hynes, Brailey, Iro, and most notably, Trindall, back in their team. Trindall’s omission in the past few weeks has coincided with a dip in performance as the attack has been one dimensional. The Cowboys have Neame, Nanai, and Laybutt back to their team. There is a strong argument that the inclusion of those players to their team increases the defensive resolve, while the news that Cotter is free to play is invaluable to them on both sides of the ball; he does plenty of work which goes unnoticed.
Unfortunately for the Cowboys, having most of those players available for majority of the season has not ensured victory. It will also be a struggle here. If they allow the Sharks to control the ruck to a speed that benefits them, they will dominate their opponents up the middle. There is no doubt that they are more capable, but the Cowboys will take their chances, it’s just a matter of getting them. Gritty and determined, the Sharks can be tough to breakdown. Their performance against the Storm indicated that the effort (and belief) has returned to their squad. It’s too hard to make a case for the visitors on many fronts and with the Sharks tightening their defence, they should have enough points in them capture a comfortable victory.
Sharks 13+
$2.50 (1.5 Units)
Sharks vs Cowboys Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total points over 47.5 – see above for justification.
Leg 2 = Mulitalo to score – he has a great record against the Cowboys, scoring 7 tries from his past 5 matches against them. Mulitalo will again be out to dominate and assert himself on this contest.
Leg 3 = Iro to score – following a week off to prepare for this match, Iro will be ready to fire. He has a great record against the Cowboys too, with 6 tries from his past 4 matches, including a hattrick in his most recent game against them.
Sharks vs Cowboys Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday 12th September
Location: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Time: 7:50pm (AEST)
Odds: Sharks $1.44 vs Cowboys $2.80
Line: -7.5
Points: 47.5
Where to Watch Sharks vs Cowboys
Watch the Sharks vs Cowboys match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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