Another exciting round of AFL action is complete, and the 2021 Brownlow Medal race appears to be pretty wide open at this stage. Last year's winner Lachie Neale had his best game of the season and is likely to poll for the first time in 2021, while Marcus Bontempelli put in another sublime performance for the red-hot Bulldogs. Melbourne skipper Max Gawn has led the undefeated Demons from the front this season, with many predicting him to be right at the top of the counts after Round 5, while Freo's David Mundy is another at big odds who has started the season very strongly.
Read on for our 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 5.
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard tracker with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 5
St.Kilda 7.6.48 def by Richmond 20.14.134
The Tigers are back on track with a thumping win over the Saints. Dusty Martin will again be in the votes with 34 disposals, 5 clearances and 1 goal, but he may be challenged for the 3 votes with Shane Edwards (29 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal), Shai Bolton (29 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and Jack Riewoldt (5 goals, 17 disposals, 8 marks) all putting in strong performances.
Shane Edwards – 2.5
Dustin Martin – 2.5
Jack Riewoldt - 1
West Coast 16.7.103 def Collingwood 11.10.76
The Eagles were too good for the Pies and they had winners all over the ground. Jack Redden (37 disposals, 10 marks, 6 clearances), Andrew Gaff (38 disposals, 10 marks, 5 clearances) and Liam Duggan (36 disposals, 13 marks) won a heap of ball, while Dom Sheed (28 disposals, 7 clearances, 3 goals) once again feasted on the Pies. Up forward, the twin towers of Jack Darling (5 goals, 15 disposals) and Oscar Allen (5 goals, 13 disposals) did the damage on the scoreboard. Jack Crisp was best for the Pies with 32 disposals.
Jack Redden – 3
Dom Sheed – 2
Oscar Allen – 0.5
Jack Darling – 0.5
Western Bulldogs 17.16.118 def Gold Coast 8.8.56
The Bulldogs appear the team to beat in 2021 after they thumped Gold Coast for a perfect 5-0 start to the season. They kicked the first 11 goals of the game to setup the win with Marcus Bontempelli (33 disposals, 6 tackles, 5 clearances, 3 goals) and Josh Dunkley (38 disposals, 8 tackles, 7 clearances, 2 goals) having enormous games. Adam Treloar (26 disposals, 2 goals) and Jack Macrae (35 disposals, 7 clearances) will also be a chance for votes. Brandon Ellis (27 disposals) and Jack Lukosius (18 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) were best for the Suns.
Marcus Bontempelli – 3
Josh Dunkley – 2
Adam Treloar - 1
Sydney 10.9.69 def by GWS Giants 9.17.71
A late goal to Josh Kelly saw the Giants pinch a victory and inflict the first loss of the season on the Swans. Kelly was very good with 26 disposals and a goal, along with Tim Taranto (27 disposals, 5 clearances) and Jacob Hopper (26 disposals, 6 clearances). Lance Franklin won the Brett Kirk medal for his 5 goals from 14 disposals and 8 marks, while Will Hayward (18 disposals, 6 marks, 3 goals) and Jake Lloyd (28 disposals, 7 marks) were valuable contributors for the Swans.
Lance Franklin – 3
Jacob Hopper – 1
Josh Kelly – 1
Will Hayward - 1
Carlton 9.14.68 def by Port Adelaide 15.6.96
The Power were too strong for the Blues as they cruised to a comfortable victory. Ollie Wines (32 disposals, 7 clearances), Travis Boak (29 disposals), Karl Amon (28 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) and Darcy Byrne-Jones (24 disposals, 9 marks) won plenty of the ball for the Power while Robbie Gray (16 disposals, 3 goals) and Todd Marshall (19 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal) were influential up forward. Sam Walsh again stood out for the Blues with 29 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances and 1 goal. Tricky game for voting.
Ollie Wines – 3
Karl Amon - 1
Robbie Gray – 1
Sam Walsh - 1
Brisbane 15.12.102 def Essendon 6.9.45
Brisbane found some form in the wet as they thumped the Bombers at the Gabba. Lachie Neale was back to his best with 38 disposals, 7 marks, 8 clearances and 2 goals and should get his first votes of the season. However best afield is not easy to decide with Hugh McCluggage (32 disposals, 6 marks), Jarryd Lyons (35 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances), Daniel Rich (31 disposals, 940 metres gained) and Joe Daniher (25 disposals, 8 marks, 6 hitouts, 2 goals) all superb. Zach Merrett (35 disposals, 7 clearances) and Andrew McGrath (30 disposals, 12 tackles, 8 clearances) found plenty of ball for the Bombers but are unlikely to get into the votes here.
Hugh McLuggage – 2.5
Lachie Neale – 2.5
Joe Daniher - 1
Adelaide 11.6.72 def by Fremantle 12.12.84
The Dockers pulled off a brave away victory as they got home over the Crows by two goals. Andrew Brayshaw (33 disposals, 7 clearances) and David Mundy (28 disposals, 8 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) were excellent in the middle with Luke Ryan (24 disposals, 10 marks) rebounding superbly from half-back. Matt Taberner kicked 4 goals from 15 disposals and 8 marks up forward. Rory Laird was best for the Crows with 29 disposals, 7 tackles and 7 clearances.
Andrew Brayshaw – 3
David Mundy – 2
Matt Taberner - 1
Hawthorn 8.6.54 def by Melbourne 15.14.104
Big Max Gawn was the stand out in Melbourne’s big win over the Hawks, and many analysts have the Demons skipper leading the Brownlow count after Round 5. We don’t have Gawn on top, but we think he’ll pick up 3 votes here with 26 disposals, 24 hitouts, 10 marks, 5 clearances and a goal in a brilliant performance. Clayton Oliver (30 disposals, 7 marks, 8 tackles), Ed Langdon (17 disposals, 3 goals) and Tom McDonald (22 disposals, 10 marks, 2 goals) were also influential. Tom Mitchell (32 disposals, 5 tackles) and Jaegar O’Meara (27 disposals, 6 tackles, 9 clearances) were best for the Hawks.
Max Gawn – 3
Clayton Oliver – 2
Tom McDonald – 0.5
Ed Langdon – 0.5
Geelong 10.17.77 def North Melbourne 7.5.47
The Cats got the points but they struggled early as the Roos took it right up to the premiership contender. Brandan Parfitt was first class with 34 disposals, 7 tackles and 8 clearances, while Sam Menegola (28 disposals, 2 goals) and Tom Stewart (30 disposals, 11 marks) were also good for the Cats. Ben Cunnington was back to his best with 29 disposals and 7 clearances, while Jack Ziebell broke the Kangaroos record for metres gained with 38 disposals, 9 marks and 946 metres gained as the last line of defence.
Brendan Parfitt – 3
Sam Menegola – 2
Ben Cunnington - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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