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2026 AFL Finals Week 1: Tips, Predictions & Betting Odds

August 31st 2026, 2:32pm, By: Heath Chick

AFL Finals Week 1 Betting Tips
2026 AFL Finals Series
AFL Finals
Week 1
The top eight is locked in. Four finals across three nights will determine who earns a week off, who moves on and whose 2026 season comes to an end.
Four games. Eight teams. September starts here.

After the first-ever AFL Wildcard Round, the traditional eight-team finals series is now set and the race for the 2026 premiership enters its next phase.

Finals Week 1 begins on Thursday night in Perth when minor premiers Fremantle host Hawthorn in the first Qualifying Final. Friday night sees Geelong face Carlton at the MCG in a sudden-death Elimination Final.

Saturday features a huge double-header, with Sydney hosting reigning premiers Brisbane at the SCG before Adelaide take on the Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval.

Below you'll find the full 2026 AFL Finals Week 1 fixture along with the latest head-to-head, line and total points markets.

AFL Finals Week 1 at a glance
  • - Qualifying Finals: the winners advance directly to a Preliminary Final.
  • - The Qualifying Final losers receive a second chance and play again in Week 2.
  • - Elimination Finals: win and advance, lose and the season is over.
  • - All betting odds below are the latest prices supplied at the time of update and are subject to change.
Qualifying Final
Fremantle VS Hawthorn
THURSDAY 3 SEPTEMBER   •   8:10PM AEST   •   OPTUS STADIUM

Fremantle vs Hawthorn

Head to Head
FRE ($1.45) vs HAW ($2.78)
Line
FRE -14.5 @ $1.90
Total Points
167.5 points @ $1.90

Finals Week 1 begins in Perth as minor premiers Fremantle host Hawthorn in a Thursday night Qualifying Final at Optus Stadium.

The Dockers enter as clear favourites, with the market asking them to cover a 14.5-point line. The winner advances directly to a Preliminary Final, while the loser gets another opportunity in Week 2.

Fremantle vs Hawthorn Tips →

Elimination Final
Geelong VS Carlton
FRIDAY 4 SEPTEMBER   •   7:40PM AEST   •   MCG

Geelong vs Carlton

Head to Head
GEEL ($1.66) vs CARL ($2.23)
Line
GEEL -6.5 @ $1.90
Total Points
174.5 points @ $1.90

Friday night brings the first sudden-death match of the traditional finals series as Geelong face Carlton at the MCG.

The Cats are slight favourites, but the market suggests a competitive contest with a line of just 6.5 points. Carlton survived Wildcard Round and now face another must-win game, with the loser eliminated from the premiership race.

Geelong vs Carlton Tips →

betr Wildcards

Qualifying Final
Sydney VS Brisbane
SATURDAY 5 SEPTEMBER   •   3:15PM AEST   •   SCG

Sydney vs Brisbane

Head to Head
SYD ($3.82) vs BRIS ($1.27)
Line
BRIS -25.5 @ $1.90
Total Points
187.5 points @ $1.90

Saturday's action begins at the SCG with Sydney hosting Brisbane in the second Qualifying Final.

Brisbane are the shortest-priced favourite of the weekend at $1.27, with Sydney priced at $3.82 and receiving a 25.5-point start. The reward for victory is significant, with the winner moving straight through to a home Preliminary Final.

Sydney vs Brisbane Tips →

Elimination Final
Adelaide VS Western Bulldogs
SATURDAY 5 SEPTEMBER   •   7:35PM AEST   •   ADELAIDE OVAL

Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs

Head to Head
ADEL ($1.45) vs WB ($2.76)
Line
ADEL -13.5 @ $1.90
Total Points
167.5 points @ $1.90

Finals Week 1 concludes on Saturday night when Adelaide host the Western Bulldogs in a sudden-death Elimination Final at Adelaide Oval.

Adelaide are at home and have been installed as 13.5-point favourites, while the Bulldogs will be looking to carry their momentum from Wildcard Round into another do-or-die contest.

Adelaide vs Bulldogs Tips →

Dabble AFL SGMs

What Happens After Finals Week 1?

The winners of the two Qualifying Finals will advance directly to the Preliminary Finals and earn a week off.

The losers of the Qualifying Finals will receive a second chance in Week 2, where they will face the winners of the two Elimination Finals.

For the teams playing on Friday and Saturday night in the Elimination Finals, there is no second chance — win and advance, lose and the 2026 season is over.

2026 AFL Finals Week 1 Betting Tips

Before You Bet will provide full previews and betting tips for all four matches across the opening week of the traditional AFL Finals Series.

We'll analyse the latest head-to-head odds, lines, total points markets, team selections, injuries and key match-ups before providing our best bets for each game.

You can also visit our AFL Tips page for all of our latest AFL content, or check the latest 2026 AFL Premiership Odds as the race for the flag heats up.

 

Heath is one of the original founders and the active Managing Director of The Trifect Group, the company that owns and operates Before You Bet.

Heath has worked in the wagering industry for two decades. Formally in the poker industry, Heath ran Australia's leading poker news portal before transitioning across to lead Before You Bet. Heath also manages other TTG projects that include our US based site Total Sports Picks and our daily fantasy sports website Daily Fantasy Rankings.

On Twitter, you'll find Heath providing unsolicited commentary on the latest cricket, NBL, darts or AFL matches - mixing fortunes with the success of his JackJumpers in the NBL with the misfortune of the lowly North Melbourne in the AFL.

Heath will occasionally contribute content in these fields, but otherwise is left to manage operations which includes business development, affiliate partnerships and our content & editing team. Feel free to connect with Heath via our Contact Us page if you'd like to discuss any new business opportunities with us!

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