Have the bookies got it wrong? After Round 16 of the AFL season we have Port Adelaide's Ollie Wines a full three votes clear in the 2021 Brownlow Medal race, yet many experts and media outlets are frothing over Marcus Bontempelli being a lock to win it! We've certainly under-estimated the polling power of The Bont before, but the form of Ollie Wines is just too good to ignore. The powerhouse Power skipper was immense over the weekend and surely will be racking up another best on ground. Compare that to Bontempelli who was good, and seems likely for votes, but was his game good enough for the three? I'm not so sure. Round 16 might prove to be one of the most interesting and most important on Brownlow Medal night. If we're right, then Wines might be the one to catch. If we're wrong, then the Brownlow may be destined for the Bulldog.
Check out our analysis and 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 16 below!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 16
Gold Coast 10.17.77 def Richmond 10.7.67
A mighty win for the Suns especially considering they were forced to flee Queensland during the week for Covid reasons. They were too slick in the win that has left the Tigers’ premiership defence in tatters. Best on ground was easily Touk Miller who will be shortening in Brownlow betting markets after his 36 disposals, 7 marks, 7 tackles and 9 clearances. The remaining votes will be harder to determine. Jack Lukosius (24 disposals, 10 marks), Brandon Ellis (28 disposals, 8 marks), Charlie Ballard (17 disposals, 9 marks), Ben Ainsworth (20 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal, 11 score involvements) and Ben King (4 goals, 13 disposals, 7 marks) were all effective in their roles. Tom Lynch stood tall against his old side with 5 goals from 13 disposals and 6 marks.
Touk Miller - 3
Jack Lukosius - 1
Ben Ainsworth - 1
Tom Lynch - 1
Geelong 15.8.98 def Essendon 8.9.57
The Cats started slowly but turned it on in the last three quarters in slippery conditions to record a comfortable win. Patrick Dangerfield was back in the middle and back to his best as he threw himself into the conditions with 37 disposals, 11 marks, 11 clearances and a goal. He might be collecting his first Brownlow votes of the season. Tom Stewart (25 disposals, 13 marks), Tom Atkins (29 disposals, 5 marks, 6 tackles) and Zach Tuohy (26 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) were excellent down back while Tom Hawkins (6 goals, 15 disposals, 6 marks) delivered the goods up forward. However there should be votes going Essendon’s way as Darcy Parish won the Tom Wills Medal for 43 disposals (28 contested), 13 clearances, a goal and over 900 metres gained. Zach Merrett (36 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal) and Jake Stringer (25 disposals, 5 tackles, 8 clearances, 3 goals) were also very good but otherwise, there were too many passengers.
Darcy Parish - 3
Patrick Dangerfield - 2
Tom Hawkins - 1
Melbourne 7.13.55 def by GWS Giants 9.10.64
The Giants are in the top 8 after they finally landed a big blow to upset the Demons at the G. Josh Kelly (29 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal), Tim Taranto (28 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal) and Callan Ward (24 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) were great in the middle, while big Shane Mumford (10 disposals, 5 tackles, 26 hitouts) actually won the hitout battle against Max Gawn. Christian Petracca (30 disposals, 10 marks, 6 tackles, 5 clearances) should be in the votes, while Christian Salem (31 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal) was good at half back.
Josh Kelly - 3
Christian Petracca - 2
Callan Ward - 1
Adelaide 8.11.59 def by Brisbane 17.9.111
The Lions continue to roll on in 2021 with a big win over the Crows. Jarryd Lyons was superb with 31 disposals and 10 tackles, and was well supported by Mitch Robinson (27 disposals, 7 clearances), Zac Bailey (26 disposals, 9 clearances, 3 goals) and Lincoln McCarthy (16 disposals, 6 marks, 4 goals). Marcus Adams continues to be underrated as a defender and he is worth a mention for his 18 disposals and 8 marks at full back. Rory Laird was best for the Crows with 37 disposals and 9 clearances.
Jarryd Lyons - 2.5
Zac Bailey - 2.5
Lincoln McCarthy - 0.5
Marcus Adams - 0.5
Fremantle 8.16.64 def by Carlton 12.8.80
The Dockers blew a massive chance to move into the top 8 while the season is still alive for the Blues as they claimed a narrow victory. Sam Walsh kicked the match-winning goal on his way to 25 disposals, 8 marks, 8 tackles and a goal. Matthew Kennedy (22 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) and Paddy Dow (22 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) were great contributors in the middle while Jacob Weitering (20 disposals, 10 marks) held things up in the back line. Andrew Brayshaw (28 disposals, 8 marks, 5 tackles, 2 goals) was tireless while Sean Darcy (20 disposals, 8 marks, 40 hitouts, 6 clearances, 1 goal) was the dominant big man on the ground.
Sam Walsh - 3
Andrew Brayshaw - 1.5
Sean Darcy - 1.5
Hawthorn 7.11.53 def by Port Adelaide 13.9.87
The Power were too strong in Shaun Burgoyne’s 400th to get the points without too much bother. Ollie Wines could be extending his lead if our Brownlow leaderboard is correct with another clear best on ground for his 43 disposals, 7 tackles, 13 clearances and 616 metres gained. Travis Boak (27 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances) and Karl Amon (26 disposals, 9 marks) were busy in the midfield while Charlie Dixon popped up with 4 goals from 14 disposals. Tom Mitchell collected 29 disposals, 6 tackles and 8 clearances but might find it hard to poll, while James Worpel had 23 disposals, 8 tackles, 9 clearances and a goal.
Ollie Wines - 3
Travis Boak - 2
Karl Amon - 1
Sydney 18.10.118 def West Coast 3.8.26
Another humiliating loss by the Eagles as their 2021 season is in freefall. By contrast, the Swans were superb with Callum Mills (35 disposals, 7 clearances), Luke Parker (30 disposals, 5 tackles, 5 clearances), Oli Florent (28 disposals, 5 marks) and Jordan Dawson (25 disposals, 5 marks, 2 goals) all having an influence. Tom Hickey also overcame his former teammate Nic Natanui to collect 22 disposals, 21 hitouts and 6 clearances to help setup the big win. Dom Sheed (37 disposals, 5 tackles, 8 clearances) tried hard on a miserable day for the Eagles.
Callum Mills - 3
Tom Hickey - 1
Luke Parker - 1
Jordan Dawson - 1
Collingwood 8.13.61 def by St.Kilda 10.10.70
The Saints survived a late scare to get the valuable four points and somehow remain in finals contention. Jack Steele led from the front with 36 disposals, 5 marks, 14 tackles, 8 clearances and a likely 3 Brownlow votes. Luke Dunstan (27 disposals, 9 tackles, 10 clearances), Brad Hill (30 disposals) and Brad Crouch (28 disposals, 6 clearances) all had busy days to setup the win for the Saints. Jordan De Goey (32 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal) and Taylor Adams (34 disposals, 6 tackles) were best for the Pies.
Jack Steele - 3
Brad Hill - 2
Luke Dunstan - 0.5
Jordan De Goey - 0.5
Western Bulldogs 16.12.108 def North Melbourne 11.13.79
It wasn’t quite the Good Friday massacre but the Dogs did enough to get the win and jump to the top of the 2021 AFL ladder. It wasn’t the usual dominant Dogs performance but Marcus Bontempelli (27 disposals, 8 marks) and Jack Macrae (31 disposals, 7 clearances) were typically prolific, while Tom Liberatore (25 disposals, 6 marks, 5 tackles, 8 clearances, 2 goals), Bailey Dale (23 disposals, 2 goals) and Cody Weightman (4 goals, 13 disposals, 7 marks) all played their role. The Kangaroos backline padded their stats but it was Ben Cunnington who was left to win the tough ball as one of the best on ground with 26 disposals, 8 marks, 7 tackles, 9 clearances and 2 goals. Tricky game for votes and may be an important one for Bontempelli’s Brownlow chances.
Tom Liberatore - 2
Ben Cunnington - 2
Cody Weightman - 1
Marcus Bontempelli - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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