Last week we published our Brownlow Top 20 and took a look at the chances of the main contenders. This week, we’re going to publish our Top 5 players from each team and take a look at the Brownlow betting markets for team voting to see if we can find some value.
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ADELAIDE
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Matt Crouch
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13
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Brad Crouch
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11.5
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Rory Sloane
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11
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Alex Keath
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6
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Brodie Smith
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3.5
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All the talk was the year that Brad Crouch had, but we actually have his brother Matt slightly ahead. Rory Sloane also polled 11 votes in the first 8 rounds before injury whacked him in the second half of the year. It’s hard to see Sloane getting enough votes to win it, but the price on Matt is tempting.
Matt Crouch win Adelaide
$2.38
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BRISBANE
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Lachie Neale
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26.5
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Dayne Zorko
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16
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Jarryd Lyons
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13
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Charlie Cameron
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9.5
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Hugh McCluggage
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5.5
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No value here with Neale to win easily, and Zorko hard to beat in the without Neale markets.
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CARLTON
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Patrick Cripps
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21
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Marc Murphy
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6.5
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Ed Curnow
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5
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Sam Walsh
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4.5
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Nic Newman
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3
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A similar story at Carlton where Patrick Cripps is miles ahead of the pack. Marc Murphy might get a couple of best-on-grounds which should be enough for him to win without Cripps.
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COLLINGWOOD
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Adam Treloar
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21
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Brodie Grundy
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20
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Scott Pendlebury
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15.5
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Steele Sidebottom
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8.5
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Brody Mihocek
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5
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It’s a two-horse race at Collingwood. We’ve found it hard to split them and so have the bookies, with Adam Treloar and Brodie Grundy both at about even money. I felt like Grundy had the better year, but ruckmen have a poor history of votes. Too close to call.
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ESSENDON
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Zach Merrett
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17.5
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Dylan Shiel
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13.5
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Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
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7
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Dyson Heppell
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6
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Michael Hurley
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3
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Zach Merrett clearly in front here. I don’t know if he’s a $1.05 chance that the bookies suggest, but he should win. No value.
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FREMANTLE
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Nat Fyfe
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24.5
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Michael Walters
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14.5
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Brad Hill
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12
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David Mundy
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6
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Cam McCarthy
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3
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Nat Fyfe is well out in front at Freo, however without Fyfe we have things a little closer. We have Michael Walters a couple of votes ahead of Brad Hill, but the bookies seem to think Walters is a lock without Fyfe. While Walters had a few magical games and should pick up some threes, we do have Hill polling in seven games and Walters just six. If a couple of votes swing towards Hill, he’s not the worst chance to win that market as a speculative bet.
Brad Hill win Freo (w/o Fyfe)
$8.00
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GEELONG
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Patrick Dangerfield
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30.5
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Tim Kelly
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19.5
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Mitch Duncan
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14
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Gary Ablett
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8.5
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Tom Hawkins
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4.5
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Dangerfield to win Geelong and Charlie. Hard to see Kelly getting near him in the end, so the $1.10 for Danger to win Geelong almost looks like value!
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GOLD COAST
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David Swallow
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4.5
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Brayden Fiorini
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3.5
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Jarrod Harbrow
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3.5
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Touk Miller
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3
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Jack Martin
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3
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Eeek. An ugly scoreboard but an interesting betting market. The bookies have decided it’s between David Swallow and Brayden Fiorini at Gold Coast. We have Fiorini polling in up to 4 games, while Swallow may pull more votes in just 3 games. The interesting one is Jarrod Harbrow. We have him best on ground in the Suns Round 2 victory, and then an outside chance of a vote for 30 disposals against the Eagles in Round 7. If he gets to four votes, that might be enough for at least a tie, and if he can pinch a surprise vote somewhere else, then the $41 price doesn’t look too bad! Interestingly, we have the Suns polling 13.5 of their total of 21 votes for the season in the first three rounds.
Saver David Swallow $2.00 at BetEasy
Jarrad Harbrow win Gold Coast
$41
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GWS
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Stephen Coniglio
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17.5
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Jeremy Cameron
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12
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Tim Taranto
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12
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Lachie Whitfield
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11
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Josh Kelly
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10.5
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We were big on Stephen Coniglio last season and he underwhelmed in the Brownlow count, so hopefully the umpires know who he is this year. Had some monster games, and all of his voting this season look to be 2 or 3 vote games, so I expect him to be noticed. I don’t think Jeremy Cameron polled in enough games, and Tim Taranto might be the forgotten one this season with a lot of small votes but not enough threes.
Stephen Coniglio win GWS
$2.35
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HAWTHORN
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James Worpel
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14.5
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Jaegar O'Meara
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10
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Ricky Henderson
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8.5
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James Sicily
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8
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Liam Shiels
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5.5
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James Worpel looks the winner at the Hawks after an incredible run home after Round 17 and he’s the even money favourite with the books. He’s hard to beat but he’s a young player who may not get noticed, while Jaegar O’Meara can catch the umpires’ eye, so that’s keeping me out of the betting market here.
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MELBOURNE
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Max Gawn
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8.5
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Clayton Oliver
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8.5
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Tom McDonald
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6
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Bailey Fritsch
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4
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Angus Brayshaw
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3
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A horrible year for Melbourne. Big Max will be hard to beat, but Clayton Oliver offers some value here. We have Oliver getting a number of 0.5 vote games which means he was pretty good in a losing team and may be a chance for a 1 vote game. If half of those fall his way, I think he can beat Gawn. There’s some differences in the price around, so happy to nibble at the price on BetEasy. At least we know Angus Brayshaw won’t be finishing third this season.
Clayton Oliver win Melbourne
$3.50
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NORTH MELBOURNE
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Shaun Higgins
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17
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Ben Cunnington
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9
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Jack Ziebell
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8.5
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Ben Brown
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8
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Todd Goldstein
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5
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I love a bet on Shaun Higgins at North Melbourne. He’s that far ahead of Ben Cunnington it’s not funny. Higgins is pure class when he gets the ball, and hits the scoreboard. Cunnington’s style is much dirtier and I don’t know if the umpires will even go for that. Should be $1.05 so give me $1.70 all day. BEST BET.
BEST BET!
Shaun Higgins win Nth Melb
$1.70
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PORT ADELAIDE
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Travis Boak
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15
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Tom Rockliff
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8.5
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Robbie Gray
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8
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Ollie Wines
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7.5
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Sam Gray
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6
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Boak is a lock at Port and it’s hard to separate the likes of Tom Rockcliff, Robbie Gray and Ollie Wines in the without Boak market. Happy to leave alone.
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RICHMOND
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Dustin Martin
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23.5
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Bachar Houli
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12
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Dion Prestia
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11
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Brandon Ellis
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6
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Trent Cotchin
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5
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Dusty is a clear winner at Richmond and it will come down to Bachar Houli and Dion Prestia for next best. Too close to call.
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ST.KILDA
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Jack Billings
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14
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Sebastian Ross
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11.5
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Jade Gresham
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8
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Jack Lonie
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4
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Rowan Marshall
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3.5
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Jack Billings may have polled ten votes in the first five rounds, but the rest of the season wasn’t quite as thrilling. Should still do enough to win St.Kilda but no value at $1.16.
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SYDNEY
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Luke Parker
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14.5
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Josh Kennedy
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9.5
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Isaac Heeney
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5.5
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Jake Lloyd
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5
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Lance Franklin
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4.5
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Luke Parker to win Sydney but no bets possible at $1.10.
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WEST COAST
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Andrew Gaff
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18.5
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Dom Sheed
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13.5
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Luke Shuey
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13
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Jack Darling
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10.5
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Elliot Yeo
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8.5
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I find West Coast one of the most difficult teams to track votes, and looking at the odds, they are the team that I have the largest discrepancy from the bookmakers. It can be very difficult to split some of their games when their ball magnets all collect 30+ disposals. I’ve clearly leant towards Gaff and Sheed, and the books have leant towards Shuey and Yeo. I have Yeo nowhere near it. This could get ugly on Brownlow night but we have to back our numbers and hope for the best.
Andrew Gaff win West Coast
$4.25
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WESTERN BULLDOGS
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Marcus Bontempelli
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20
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Josh Dunkley
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19
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Jack Macrae
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18.5
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Aaron Naughton
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6.5
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Lachie Hunter
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4.5
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We already mentioned how we are taking on Marcus Bontempelli in the Overall Brownlow Winner market as I just can’t have him as high as the media hype. I do have Bont in front at the Bulldogs, but only just. I think Josh Dunkley and Jack Macrae are going to take a ton of votes away from him, and depending on how things fall, they could even push him to win the Bulldogs. It’s risky, but if you’re going to take on the Bont, you might as well go the whole way.
VALUE: Josh Dunkley $9.00 Ladbrokes
Jack Macrae win Bulldogs
$4.00
